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OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk assessment tool to identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at higher risk for kidney disease progression and who might benefit more from sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 41,204 patients with T2D from four Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) clinical trials were divided into derivation (70%) and validation cohorts (30%). Candidate predictors of kidney disease progression (composite of sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], end-stage kidney disease, or kidney death) were selected with multivariable Cox regression. Efficacy of dapagliflozin was assessed by risk categories (low: <0.5%; intermediate: 0.5 to <2%; high: ≥2%) in Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events (DECLARE)-TIMI 58. RESULTS: There were 695 events over a median follow-up of 2.4 years. The final model comprised eight independent predictors of kidney disease progression: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, T2D duration, glycated hemoglobin, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and hemoglobin. The c-indices were 0.798 (95% CI, 0.774–0.821) and 0.798 (95% CI, 0.765–0.831) in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration plot slope (deciles of predicted vs. observed risk) was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93–1.04) in the validation cohort. Whereas relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin did not differ across risk categories, there was greater absolute risk reduction in patients with higher baseline risk, with a 3.5% absolute risk reduction in kidney disease progression at 4 years in the highest risk group (≥1%/year). Results were similar with the 2022 Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium risk prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Risk models for kidney disease progression can be applied in patients with T2D to stratify risk and identify those who experience a greater magnitude of benefit from SGLT2 inhibition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In patients with moderate to severe albuminuric kidney disease, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors reduce the risk of kidney disease progression. These post hoc analyses assess the effects of dapagliflozin on kidney function decline in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), focusing on populations with low kidney risk.Research Design and Methods: In the Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trial, patients with T2D at high cardiovascular risk were randomly assigned to dapagliflozin versus placebo. Outcomes were analyzed by treatment arms, overall, and by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) risk categories. The prespecified kidney-specific composite outcome was a sustained decline ≥40% in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, end-stage kidney disease, and kidney-related death. Other outcomes included incidence of categorical eGFR decline of different thresholds and chronic (6 month to 4 year) or total (baseline to 4 year) eGFR slopes.Results: Most participants were in the low-moderate KDIGO risk categories (n = 15,201 [90.3%]). The hazard for the kidney-specific composite outcome was lower with dapagliflozin across all KDIGO risk categories (P-interaction = 0.97), including those at low risk (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54, 95% CI 0.38-0.77). Risks for categorical eGFR reductions (≥57% [in those with baseline eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2], ≥50%, ≥40%, and ≥30%) were lower with dapagliflozin (HRs 0.52, 0.57, 0.55, and 0.70, respectively; P < 0.05). Slopes of eGFR decline favored dapagliflozin across KDIGO risk categories, including the low KDIGO risk (between-arm differences of 0.87 [chronic] and 0.55 [total] mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P < 0.0001).Conclusions: Dapagliflozin mitigated kidney function decline in patients with T2D at high cardiovascular risk, including those with low KDIGO risk, suggesting a role of dapagliflozin in the early prevention of diabetic kidney disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]