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OBJECTIVE To investigate the association between accelerometer-derived physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a cohort of middle-aged adults and within subgroups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data were from 90,096 UK Biobank participants without prevalent diabetes (mean 62 years of age; 57% women) who wore a wrist accelerometer for 7 days. PAEE was derived from wrist acceleration using a population-specific method validated against doubly labeled water. Logistic regressions were used to assess associations between PAEE, its underlying intensity, and incident T2D, ascertained using hospital episode and mortality data up to November 2020. Models were progressively adjusted for demographic, lifestyle factors, and BMI. RESULTS The association between PAEE and T2D was approximately linear (n = 2,018 events). We observed 19% (95% CI 17–21) lower odds of T2D per 5 kJ · kg−1 · day−1 in PAEE without adjustment for BMI and 11% (9–13) with BMI adjustment. The association was stronger in men than women and weaker in those with obesity and higher genetic susceptibility to obesity. There was no evidence of effect modification by genetic susceptibility to T2D or insulin resistance. For a given level of PAEE, odds of T2D were lower among those engaging in more moderate-to-vigorous activity. CONCLUSIONS There was a strong linear relationship between PAEE and incident T2D. A difference in PAEE equivalent to an additional daily 20-min brisk walk was associated with 19% lower odds of T2D. The association was broadly similar across population subgroups, supporting physical activity for diabetes prevention in the whole population.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have found few common variants that influence fasting measures of insulin sensitivity. We hypothesized that a GWAS of an integrated assessment of fasting and dynamic measures of insulin sensitivity would detect novel common variants. We performed a GWAS of the modified Stumvoll Insulin Sensitivity Index (ISI) within the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-Related Traits Consortium. Discovery for genetic association was performed in 16,753 individuals, and replication was attempted for the 23 most significant novel loci in 13,354 independent individuals. Association with ISI was tested in models adjusted for age, sex, and BMI and in a model analyzing the combined influence of the genotype effect adjusted for BMI and the interaction effect between the genotype and BMI on ISI (model 3). In model 3, three variants reached genome-wide significance: rs13422522 (NYAP2; P = 8.87 × 10−11), rs12454712 (BCL2; P = 2.7 × 10−8), and rs10506418 (FAM19A2; P = 1.9 × 10−8). The association at NYAP2 was eliminated by conditioning on the known IRS1 insulin sensitivity locus; the BCL2 and FAM19A2 associations were independent of known cardiometabolic loci. In conclusion, we identified two novel loci and replicated known variants associated with insulin sensitivity. Further studies are needed to clarify the causal variant and function at the BCL2 and FAM19A2 loci.

There is considerable interest in GIPR agonism to enhance the insulinotropic and extrapancreatic effects of GIP, thereby improving glycemic and weight control in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity. Recent genetic epidemiological evidence has implicated higher GIPR-mediated GIP levels in raising coronary artery disease (CAD) risk, a potential safety concern for GIPR agonism. We therefore aimed to quantitatively assess whether the association between higher GIPR-mediated fasting GIP levels and CAD risk is mediated via GIPR or is instead the result of linkage disequilibrium (LD) confounding between variants at the GIPR locus. Using Bayesian multitrait colocalization, we identified a GIPR missense variant, rs1800437 (G allele; E354), as the putatively causal variant shared among fasting GIP levels, glycemic traits, and adiposity-related traits (posterior probability for colocalization [PPcoloc] > 0.97; PP explained by the candidate variant [PPexplained] = 1) that was independent from a cluster of CAD and lipid traits driven by a known missense variant in APOE (rs7412; distance to E354 ∼770 Kb; R2 with E354 = 0.004; PPcoloc > 0.99; PPexplained = 1). Further, conditioning the association between E354 and CAD on the residual LD with rs7412, we observed slight attenuation in association, but it remained significant (odds ratio [OR] per copy of E354 after adjustment 1.03; 95% CI 1.02, 1.04; P = 0.003). Instead, E354’s association with CAD was completely attenuated when conditioning on an additional established CAD signal, rs1964272 (R2 with E354 = 0.27), an intronic variant in SNRPD2 (OR for E354 after adjustment for rs1964272: 1.01; 95% CI 0.99, 1.03; P = 0.06). We demonstrate that associations with GIP and anthropometric and glycemic traits are driven by genetic signals distinct from those driving CAD and lipid traits in the GIPR region and that higher E354-mediated fasting GIP levels are not associated with CAD risk. These findings provide evidence that the inclusion of GIPR agonism in dual GIPR/GLP1R agonists could potentiate the protective effect of GLP-1 agonists on diabetes without undue CAD risk, an aspect that has yet to be assessed in clinical trials.

OBJECTIVE Higher plasma vitamin C levels are associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk, but whether this association is causal is uncertain. To investigate this, we studied the association of genetically predicted plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted genome-wide association studies of plasma vitamin C among 52,018 individuals of European ancestry to discover novel genetic variants. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association of genetically predicted differences in plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes in up to 80,983 case participants and 842,909 noncase participants. We compared this estimate with the observational association between plasma vitamin C and incident type 2 diabetes, including 8,133 case participants and 11,073 noncase participants. RESULTS We identified 11 genomic regions associated with plasma vitamin C (P < 5 × 10−8), with the strongest signal at SLC23A1, and 10 novel genetic loci including SLC23A3, CHPT1, BCAS3, SNRPF, RER1, MAF, GSTA5, RGS14, AKT1, and FADS1. Plasma vitamin C was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per SD 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94), but there was no association between genetically predicted plasma vitamin C (excluding FADS1 variant due to its apparent pleiotropic effect) and type 2 diabetes (1.03; 95% CI 0.96, 1.10). CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate discordance between biochemically measured and genetically predicted plasma vitamin C levels in the association with type 2 diabetes among European populations. The null Mendelian randomization findings provide no strong evidence to suggest the use of vitamin C supplementation for type 2 diabetes prevention.

Liver dysfunction and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are consistently associated. However, it is currently unknown whether liver dysfunction contributes to, results from, or is merely correlated with T2D due to confounding. We used Mendelian randomization to investigate the presence and direction of any causal relation between liver function and T2D risk including up to 64,094 T2D case and 607,012 control subjects. Several biomarkers were used as proxies of liver function (i.e., alanine aminotransferase [ALT], aspartate aminotransferase [AST], alkaline phosphatase [ALP], and γ-glutamyl transferase [GGT]). Genetic variants strongly associated with each liver function marker were used to investigate the effect of liver function on T2D risk. In addition, genetic variants strongly associated with T2D risk and with fasting insulin were used to investigate the effect of predisposition to T2D and insulin resistance, respectively, on liver function. Genetically predicted higher circulating ALT and AST were related to increased risk of T2D. There was a modest negative association of genetically predicted ALP with T2D risk and no evidence of association between GGT and T2D risk. Genetic predisposition to higher fasting insulin, but not to T2D, was related to increased circulating ALT. Since circulating ALT and AST are markers of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), these findings provide some support for insulin resistance resulting in NAFLD, which in turn increases T2D risk.

Epigenetic changes may contribute substantially to risks of diseases of aging. Previous studies reported seven methylation variable positions (MVPs) robustly associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their causal roles in T2DM are unclear. In an incident T2DM case-cohort study nested within the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort, we used whole blood DNA collected at baseline, up to 11 years before T2DM onset, to investigate the role of methylation in the etiology of T2DM. We identified 15 novel MVPs with robust associations with incident T2DM and robustly confirmed three MVPs identified previously (near to TXNIP, ABCG1, and SREBF1). All 18 MVPs showed directionally consistent associations with incident and prevalent T2DM in independent studies. Further conditional analyses suggested that the identified epigenetic signals appear related to T2DM via glucose and obesity-related pathways acting before the collection of baseline samples. We integrated genome-wide genetic data to identify methylation-associated quantitative trait loci robustly associated with 16 of the 18 MVPs and found one MVP, cg00574958 at CPT1A, with a possible direct causal role in T2DM. None of the implicated genes were previously highlighted by genetic association studies, suggesting that DNA methylation studies may reveal novel biological mechanisms involved in tissue responses to glycemia.

The pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin (IL)-1β is implicated in the development of insulin resistance and beta-cell dysfunction, whereas higher circulating IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA - an endogenous inhibitor of IL-1β - has been suggested to improve glycemia and beta-cell function in patients with type 2 diabetes. In order to elucidate the protective role of IL-1RA, this study aimed to identify genetic determinants of circulating IL-1RA concentration and to investigate their associations with immunological and metabolic variables related to cardiometabolic risk. In the analysis of 7 discovery and 4 replication cohort studies, two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were independently associated with circulating IL-1RA concentration (rs4251961 at the IL-1RN locus, n=13,955, P=2.76x10(-21); and rs6759676, closest gene locus IL1F10, n=13,994, P=1.73x10(-17)). The proportion of the variance in IL-1RA explained by both SNPs combined was 2.0%. IL-1RA-raising alleles of both SNPs were associated with lower circulating C-reactive protein concentration. The IL-1RA-raising allele of rs6759676 was also associated with lower fasting insulin and lower homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). In conclusion, we show that circulating IL-1RA levels are predicted by two independent SNPs at the IL-1RN and IL-1F10 loci and that genetically raised IL-1RA may be protective against the development of insulin resistance.

Patients with established type 2 diabetes display both beta-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance. To define fundamental processes leading to the diabetic state, we examined the relationship between type 2 diabetes risk variants at 37 established susceptibility loci, and indices of proinsulin processing, insulin secretion, and insulin sensitivity. We included data from up to 58,614 nondiabetic subjects with basal measures and 17,327 with dynamic measures. We used additive genetic models with adjustment for sex, age, and BMI, followed by fixed-effects, inverse-variance meta-analyses. Cluster analyses grouped risk loci into five major categories based on their relationship to these continuous glycemic phenotypes. The first cluster (PPARG, KLF14, IRS1, GCKR) was characterized by primary effects on insulin sensitivity. The second cluster (MTNR1B, GCK) featured risk alleles associated with reduced insulin secretion and fasting hyperglycemia. ARAP1 constituted a third cluster characterized by defects in insulin processing. A fourth cluster (TCF712, SLC30A8, HHEX/IDE, CDKAL1, CDKN2A/2B) was defined by loci influencing insulin processing and secretion without a detectable change in fasting glucose levels. The final group contained 20 risk loci with no clear-cut associations to continuous glycemic traits. By assembling extensive data on continuous glycemic traits, we have exposed the diverse mechanisms whereby type 2 diabetes risk variants impact disease predisposition. Patients with established type 2 diabetes display both b-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance. To define fundamental processes leading to the diabetic state, we examined the relationship between type 2 diabetes risk variants at 37 established susceptibility loci, and indices of proinsulin processing, insulin secretion, and insulin sensitivity. We included data from up to 58,614 nondiabetic subjects with basal measures and 17,327 with dynamic measures. We used additive genetic models with adjustment for sex, age, and BMI, followed by fixed-effects, inverse-variance meta-analyses. Cluster analyses grouped risk loci into five major categories based on their relationship to these continuous glycemic phenotypes. The first cluster (PPARG, KLF14, IRS1, GCKR) was characterized by primary effects on insulin sensitivity. The second cluster (MTNR1B, GCK) featured risk alleles associated with reduced insulin secretion and fasting hyperglycemia. ARAP1 constituted a third cluster characterized by defects in insulin processing. A fourth cluster (TCF7L2, SLC30A8, HHEX/IDE, CDKAL1, CDKN2A/2B) was defined by loci influencing insulin processing and secretion without a detectable change in fasting glucose levels. The final group contained 20 risk loci with no clear-cut associations to continuous glycemic traits. By assembling extensive data on continuous glycemic traits, we have exposed the diverse mechanisms whereby type 2 diabetes risk variants impact disease predisposition.

OBJECTIVE Younger age at menarche, a marker of pubertal timing in girls, is associated with higher risk of later type 2 diabetes. We aimed to confirm this association and to examine whether it is explained by adiposity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study consists of 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from 26 research centers across eight European countries. We tested the association between age at menarche and incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression in 15,168 women (n = 5,995 cases). Models were adjusted in a sequential manner for potential confounding and mediating factors, including adult BMI. RESULTS Mean menarcheal age ranged from 12.6 to 13.6 years across InterAct countries. Each year later menarche was associated with 0.32 kg/m2 lower adult BMI. Women in the earliest menarche quintile (8–11 years, n = 2,418) had 70% higher incidence of type 2 diabetes compared with those in the middle quintile (13 years, n = 3,634), adjusting for age at recruitment, research center, and a range of lifestyle and reproductive factors (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.49–1.94; P < 0.001). Adjustment for BMI partially attenuated this association (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.18–1.71; P < 0.001). Later menarche beyond the median age was not protective against type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Women with history of early menarche have higher risk of type 2 diabetes in adulthood. Less than half of this association appears to be mediated by higher adult BMI, suggesting that early pubertal development also may directly increase type 2 diabetes risk.

OBJECTIVE Age at menopause is an important determinant of future health outcomes, but little is known about its relationship with type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of menopausal age and reproductive life span (menopausal age minus menarcheal age) with diabetes risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data were obtained from the InterAct study, a prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. A total of 3,691 postmenopausal type 2 diabetic case subjects and 4,408 subcohort members were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up of 11 years. Prentice weighted Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age, known risk factors for diabetes, and reproductive factors, and effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, and smoking was studied. RESULTS Mean (SD) age of the subcohort was 59.2 (5.8) years. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios (HRs) of type 2 diabetes were 1.32 (95% CI 1.04–1.69), 1.09 (0.90–1.31), 0.97 (0.86–1.10), and 0.85 (0.70–1.03) for women with menopause at ages 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Early menopause is associated with a greater risk of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE To study the association between adherence to the Mediterranean dietary pattern (MDP) and risk of developing type 2 diabetes, across European countries. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We established a case-cohort study including 11,994 incident type 2 diabetic case subjects and a stratified subcohort of 15,798 participants selected from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The relative Mediterranean diet score (rMED) (score range 0–18) was used to assess adherence to MDP on the basis of reported consumption of nine dietary components characteristic of the Mediterranean diet. Cox proportional hazards regression, modified for the case-cohort design, was used to estimate the association between rMED and risk of type 2 diabetes, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS The multiple adjusted hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes among individuals with medium (rMED 7–10 points) and high adherence to MDP (rMED 11–18 points) were 0.93 (95% CI 0.86–1.01) and 0.88 (0.79–0.97), respectively, compared with individuals with low adherence to MDP (0–6 points) (P for trend 0.013). The association between rMED and type 2 diabetes was attenuated in people CONCLUSIONS In this large prospective study, adherence to the MDP, as defined by rMED, was associated with a small reduction in the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in this European population.

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether associations of common genetic variants recently identified for fasting glucose or insulin levels in nondiabetic adults are detectable in healthy children and adolescents. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with fasting glucose were genotyped in six studies of children and adolescents of European origin, including over 6,000 boys and girls aged 9–16 years. We performed meta-analyses to test associations of individual SNPs and a weighted risk score of the 16 loci with fasting glucose. RESULTS Nine loci were associated with glucose levels in healthy children and adolescents, with four of these associations reported in previous studies and five reported here for the first time (GLIS3, PROX1, SLC2A2, ADCY5, and CRY2). Effect sizes were similar to those in adults, suggesting age-independent effects of these fasting glucose loci. Children and adolescents carrying glucose-raising alleles of G6PC2, MTNR1B, GCK, and GLIS3 also showed reduced β-cell function, as indicated by homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function. Analysis using a weighted risk score showed an increase [β (95% CI)] in fasting glucose level of 0.026 mmol/L (0.021–0.031) for each unit increase in the score. CONCLUSIONS Novel fasting glucose loci identified in genome-wide association studies of adults are associated with altered fasting glucose levels in healthy children and adolescents with effect sizes comparable to adults. In nondiabetic adults, fasting glucose changes little over time, and our results suggest that age-independent effects of fasting glucose loci contribute to long-term interindividual differences in glucose levels from childhood onwards.

OBJECTIVE In the general, nondiabetic population, fasting glucose increases only slightly over time, whereas 2-h postload glucose shows a much steeper age-related rise. The reasons underlying these different age trajectories are unknown. We investigated whether common genetic variants associated with fasting and 2-h glucose contribute to age-related changes of these traits. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We studied 5,196 nondiabetic participants of the Whitehall II cohort (aged 40–78 years) attending up to four 5-yearly oral glucose tolerance tests. A genetic score was calculated separately for fasting and 2-h glucose, including 16 and 5 single nucleotide polymorphisms, respectively. Longitudinal modeling with age centered at 55 years was used to study the effects of each genotype and genetic score on fasting and 2-h glucose and their interactions with age, adjusting for sex and time-varying BMI. RESULTS The fasting glucose genetic score was significantly associated with fasting glucose with a 0.029 mmol/L (95% CI 0.023–0.034) difference (P = 2.76 × 10−21) per genetic score point, an association that remained constant over time (age interaction P = 0.17). Two-hour glucose levels differed by 0.076 mmol/L (0.047–0.105) per genetic score point (P = 3.1 × 10−7); notably, this effect became stronger with increasing age by 0.006 mmol/L (0.003–0.009) per genetic score point per year (age interaction P = 3.0 × 10−5), resulting in diverging age trajectories by genetic score. CONCLUSIONS Common genetic variants contribute to the age-related rise of 2-h glucose levels, whereas associations of variants for fasting glucose are constant over time, in line with stable age trajectories of fasting glucose.

OBJECTIVE Whole-grain foods are touted for multiple health benefits, including enhancing insulin sensitivity and reducing type 2 diabetes risk. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations in individuals free of diabetes. We tested the hypothesis that whole-grain food intake and genetic variation interact to influence concentrations of fasting glucose and insulin. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Via meta-analysis of data from 14 cohorts comprising ∼48,000 participants of European descent, we studied interactions of whole-grain intake with loci previously associated in GWAS with fasting glucose (16 loci) and/or insulin (2 loci) concentrations. For tests of interaction, we considered a P value RESULTS Greater whole-grain food intake was associated with lower fasting glucose and insulin concentrations independent of demographics, other dietary and lifestyle factors, and BMI (β [95% CI] per 1-serving-greater whole-grain intake: −0.009 mmol/l glucose [−0.013 to −0.005], P < 0.0001 and −0.011 pmol/l [ln] insulin [−0.015 to −0.007], P = 0.0003). No interactions met our multiple testing–adjusted statistical significance threshold. The strongest SNP interaction with whole-grain intake was rs780094 (GCKR) for fasting insulin (P = 0.006), where greater whole-grain intake was associated with a smaller reduction in fasting insulin concentrations in those with the insulin-raising allele. CONCLUSIONS Our results support the favorable association of whole-grain intake with fasting glucose and insulin and suggest a potential interaction between variation in GCKR and whole-grain intake in influencing fasting insulin concentrations.

OBJECTIVE The goal of this study was to investigate whether the effects of common genetic variants associated with fasting glucose in adults are detectable in healthy children. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Single nucleotide polymorphisms in MTNR1B (rs10830963), G6PC2 (rs560887), and GCK (rs4607517) were genotyped in 2,025 healthy European children aged 9–11 and 14–16 years. Associations with fasting glucose, insulin, homeostasis model assessment (HOMA)-insulin resistance (IR) and HOMA-B were investigated along with those observed for type 2 diabetes variants available in this study (CDKN2A/B, IGF2BP2, CDKAL1, SLC30A8, HHEX-IDE, and Chr 11p12). RESULTS Strongest associations were observed for G6PC2 and MTNR1B, with mean fasting glucose levels (95% CI) being 0.084 (0.06–0.11) mmol/l, P = 7.9 × 10−11 and 0.069 (0.04–0.09) mmol/l, P = 1.9 × 10−7 higher per risk allele copy, respectively. A similar but weaker trend was observed for GCK (0.028 [−0.006 to 0.06] mmol/l, P = 0.11). All three variants were associated with lower β-cell function (HOMA-B P = 9.38 × 10−5, 0.004, and 0.04, respectively). SLC30A8 (rs13266634) was the only type 2 diabetes variant associated with higher fasting glucose (0.033 mmol/l [0.01–0.06], P = 0.01). Calculating a genetic predisposition score adding the number of risk alleles of G6PC2, MTNR1B, GCK, and SLC30A8 showed that glucose levels were successively higher in children carrying a greater number of risk alleles (P = 7.1 × 10−17), with mean levels of 5.34 versus 4.91 mmol/l comparing children with seven alleles (0.6% of all children) to those with none (0.5%). No associations were found for fasting insulin or HOMA-IR with any of the variants. CONCLUSIONS The effects of common polymorphisms influencing fasting glucose are apparent in healthy children, whereas the presence of multiple risk alleles amounts to a difference of >1 SD of fasting glucose.

OBJECTIVE—To investigate associations between adult markers of childhood growth and the prevalence of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) in Filipino-American women and to determine the role of social and educational differences, including the influence of social mobility between childhood and adulthood. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Socioeconomic disadvantage and poor infant growth, resulting in short leg length, may contribute to the dramatically increased risk of diabetes and CHD in Filipino-American women, but this has not been investigated. This study is a cross-sectional study of 389 Filipino-American women (age 58.7 ± 9.4 years [mean ± SD]). Diabetes was defined by 1999 World Health Organization criteria and CHD by ischemic electrocardiogram changes, Rose angina, a history of myocardial infarction, or revascularization surgery. A score of social mobility (0–4) was calculated by summarizing childhood and adult financial circumstances. RESULTS—Diabetes prevalence (31.4%) was not associated with measures of growth but was significantly lower in women with greater education, childhood and adult income, or social mobility score. Compared with Filipinas who were poorest in childhood and adulthood, respective odds ratios (95% CI) for diabetes were 0.55 (0.18–1.68), 0.19 (0.06–0.62), and 0.11 (0.03–0.42), down to 0.07 (0.01–0.51) in the most advantaged women (P < 0.0001). Family history of diabetes [5.14 (2.72–9.70)] and larger waist [1.07 per cm (1.03–1.10)] were also significant predictors in multiple adjusted models. In contrast, CHD prevalence (22.4%) was most strongly associated with leg length, but not trunk length; compared with individuals with the shortest legs, respective odds ratios (95% CI) for CHD were 0.60 (0.31–1.19), 0.53 (0.26–1.05), and 0.44 (0.22–0.91) in the tallest group, in age- (Ptrend = 0.02) and multiple-adjusted models (Ptrend = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS—Socioeconomic disadvantage contributes to the high prevalence of diabetes in Filipinas. Factors limiting early growth of the legs may increase the risk of CHD in this comparatively short population.

OBJECTIVE— Levels of adiposity-signaling hormones and inflammatory markers are less favorable in individuals with the metabolic syndrome; their role in the association between the metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular mortality remains unclear. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS— We conducted a prospective study of 977 men and 1,141 women aged 40–94 years in 1984–1987, followed for mortality for a maximum of 20 years. Adiponectin, leptin, ghrelin, interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and Adult Treatment Panel III–defined metabolic syndrome components were measured in fasting blood samples obtained in 1984–1987. Cox-proportional hazards models were used in survival analyses. RESULTS— The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality associated with the metabolic syndrome was 1.65 (1.25–2.18) (P < 0.001); this association did not differ significantly by sex, age, or diabetic status (P > 0.2 for each interaction). The association between the metabolic syndrome and CHD mortality was not materially changed after adjustment for adiponectin, leptin, and ghrelin; it was attenuated by 25% after adjustment for IL-6 and 35% after adjustment for CRP. CHD mortality increased linearly with greater levels of IL-6 and CRP (Ptrend < 0.001 for each); the age- and sex-adjusted HRs comparing highest versus lowest quarter were 3.0 (1.87–4.89) for IL-6 and 2.1 (1.41–3.21) for CRP. IL-6, but not CRP, remained a significant predictor of CHD mortality in models including both inflammatory markers and the metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSIONS— Adiposity-signaling hormones and inflammatory markers explain little to some of the association between the metabolic syndrome and CHD mortality. IL-6 levels predict CHD mortality independently of CRP.