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Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) is a central strategy for reducing carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. Although the emission impacts of reduced gasoline combustion and increased power generation are well recognized, the impacts of growing EV manufacturing activities remain understudied. Here, we focus on China and India, two of the fastest-growing EV markets. Compared to a 2030 baseline scenario, we find that national emissions of air pollutants could increase in certain high EV penetration scenarios as a result of the emission-intensive battery material production and manufacturing processes. Notably, national sulfur dioxide emissions could increase by 16-20% if all batteries have nickel- and cobalt-based cathodes and are produced domestically. Subnational regions that are abundant in battery-related minerals might emerge as future pollution hotspots. Our study thus highlights the importance of EV supply chain decisions and related manufacturing processes in understanding the environmental impacts of the EV transition.

This study aims to reveal the status quo and future trend of thermoelectric water use and water stress in India. We compiled a bottom-up geo-database for all thermal power plants in India and identified the type of cooling technology used. We then estimated thermoelectric water withdrawal and water consumption in India from 2009 to 2018 and projected future trends in thermoelectric water use up to 2027 using the integrated power planning and dispatch model, SWITCH-India. Results show that thermoelectric power generation in India is not a major source of water stress in most basins until 2027. Freshwater withdrawal varied from 14 to 16 billion m3 during the study period, while freshwater consumption increased with growing thermal power generation. The catchment in the middle of the Ganga River basin has the largest freshwater withdrawal and consumption. The volume of water withdrawal accounts for less than 1% of blue water availability in most catchments. It is also likely that a larger proportion of power generation and water withdrawal will occur in catchments that are under lower water stress in the future. Policy interventions should target stressed catchment areas and improve the resilience of thermal power plants to outages due to water stress.

The coal-dominated electricity system poses major challenges for India to tackle air pollution and climate change. Although the government has issued a series of clean air policies and low-carbon energy targets, a key barrier remains enforcement. Here, we quantify the importance of policy implementation in India's electricity sector using an integrated assessment method based on emissions scenarios, air quality simulations, and health impact assessments. We find that limited enforcement of air pollution control policies leads to worse future air quality and health damages (e.g., 14 200 to 59 000 more PM 2.5 -related deaths in 2040) than when energy policies are not fully enforced (5900 to 8700 more PM 2.5 -related deaths in 2040), since coal power plants with end-of-pipe controls already emit little air pollution. However, substantially more carbon dioxide will be emitted if low-carbon and clean coal policies are not successfully implemented (e.g., 400 to 800 million tons more CO 2 in 2040). Thus, our results underscore the important role of effectively implementing existing air pollution and energy policy to simultaneously achieve air pollution, health, and carbon mitigation goals in India.

Large-scale population migration accompanied by rapid urbanization is expected to cause the spatial relocation of air pollution because of heterogeneous energy use and consumption preferences of rural versus urban areas in China. In this study, we adopted an integrated approach by combining a population migration model and environmentally extended input-output analysis to quantify impacts of rural-to-urban (RU) and urban-to-urban (UU) migrations on emissions of NO x , SO 2 , and primary PM 2.5 in China. Results indicate that population migration increases NO x (1.42 Mt), SO 2 (1.30 Mt), and primary PM 2.5 (0.05 Mt) emissions, accounting respectively for 5.4, 4.8, and 0.4% of China's total in 2012. RU migration, involving 54% of the migrating population, significantly increases NO x and SO 2 emissions because of high urban indirect per-capita emissions from consumption and investment. RU migration influences negligibly primary PM 2.5 emissions reflecting the small rural-urban difference in per-capita emissions. Interestingly, UU migration, mostly from inland to coastal provinces, leads to a slight emission decrease for the three pollutants, attributable to the greener development in coastal cities. A significant emission growth can be traced back to heavy and utility industries, suggesting that future emission control of these sectors should reduce the exposure to air pollution of the growing urban population.