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Distribution of RS results in T3 patients in the gene signature cohort. Abbreviations: RS, recurrence score; T3, stage III tumor.

Purpose: Adjuvant sunitinib prolonged disease-free survival (DFS; HR, 0.76) in patients with locoregional high-risk renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in the S-TRAC trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00375674). The 16-gene Recurrence Score (RS) assay was previously developed and validated to estimate risk for disease recurrence in patients with RCC after nephrectomy. This analysis further validated the prognostic value of RS assay in patients from S-TRAC and explored the association of RS results with prediction of sunitinib benefit.Patients and Methods: The analysis was prospectively designed with prespecified genes, algorithm, endpoints, and analytical methods. Primary RCC was available from 212 patients with informed consent; primary analysis focused on patients with T3 RCC. Gene expression was quantitated by RT-PCR. Time to recurrence (TTR), DFS, and renal cancer–specific survival (RCSS) were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: Baseline characteristics were similar between patients with and those without RS results, and between the sunitinib and placebo arms among patients with RS results. RS results predicted TTR, DFS, and RCSS in both arms, with the strongest results observed in the placebo arm. When high versus low RS groups were compared, HR for recurrence was 9.18 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.15–39.24; P < 0.001) in the placebo arm; interaction of RS results with treatment was not significant.Conclusions: The strong prognostic performance of the 16-gene RS assay was confirmed in S-TRAC, and the RS assay is now supported by level IB evidence. RS results may help identify patients at high risk for recurrence who may derive higher absolute benefit from adjuvant therapy. Clin Cancer Res; 24(18); 4407–15. ©2018 AACR.

The gene/gene groups and algorithm included in calculating the RS. The RS is derived from the reference-normalized expression measurements, scaled from 0 to 100: Unscaled RS = -0.45 Ã- VN group score -0.31 Ã- IR group score + 0.27 Ã- CGD group score + 0.04 Ã- IL6. RS = 26.4 Ã- (unscaled RS + 3.7). The score is scaled: if RS is 100, then RS=100. Abbreviation: RS, recurrence score.

Patient baseline characteristics in the placebo versus sunitinib arm: all T3 patients in the gene signature cohort. aN0 or NX, any Fuhrman grade, ECOG PS 0 or Fuhrman grade 1 and ECOG PS ï,³1. bN0 or NX, Fuhrman grade {greater than or equal to}2, ECOG PS {greater than or equal to}1. cAny Fuhrman grade, any ECOG PS. Abbreviations: ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; SD, standard deviation; RS, Recurrence Score.

Kaplan-Meier estimates for RCSS by RS risk group in (A) placebo arm and (B) sunitinib arm. *Log-rank test for high vs low RS risk groups. †No events observed by 5 years. Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; RCCS, renal cancer-specific survival; RS, recurrence score.