Search

Background: To explore the potential value of consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in stage II colon cancer treatment selection, we carried out an early cost-effectiveness assessment of a CMS-based strategy for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We used a Markov cohort model to evaluate three selection strategies: (i) the Dutch guideline strategy (MSS+pT4), (ii) the mutation-based strategy (MSS plus a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation or MSS plus pT4), and (iii) the CMS-based strategy (CMS4 or pT4). Outcomes were number of colon cancer deaths per 1,000 patients, total discounted costs per patient (pp), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) pp. The analyses were conducted from a Dutch societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. To evaluate the value of future research, we performed a value of information (VOI) analysis. Results: The Dutch guideline strategy resulted in 8.10 QALYs pp and total costs of €23,660 pp. The CMS-based and mutation-based strategies were more effective and more costly, with 8.12 and 8.13 QALYs pp and €24,643 and €24,542 pp, respectively. Assuming a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the mutation-based strategy was considered as the optimal strategy in an incremental analysis. However, the VOI analysis showed substantial decision uncertainty driven by the molecular markers (expected value of partial perfect information: €18M). Conclusions: On the basis of current evidence, our analyses suggest that the mutation-based selection strategy would be the best use of resources. However, the extensive decision uncertainty for the molecular markers does not allow selection of an optimal strategy at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population-based metastatic recurrence rates for patients diagnosed with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer cannot be estimated directly from population-based cancer registries because recurrence information is not reported. We derived population-based colorectal cancer recurrence rates using disease-specific survival data based on our understanding of the colorectal cancer recurrence-death process. Methods: We used a statistical continuous-time multistate survival model to derive population-based annual colorectal cancer recurrence rates from 6 months to 10 years after colorectal cancer diagnosis using relative survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The model was based on the assumption that, after 6 months of diagnosis, all colorectal cancer-related deaths occur only in patients who experience a metastatic recurrence first, and that the annual colorectal cancer-specific death rate among patients with recurrence was the same as in those diagnosed with de novo metastatic disease. We allowed recurrence rates to vary by post-diagnosis time, age, stage, and location for two diagnostic time periods. Results: In patients diagnosed in 1975-1984, annual recurrence rates 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis ranged from 0.054 to 0.060 in stage II colon cancer, 0.094 to 0.105 in stage II rectal cancer, and 0.146 to 0.177 in stage III colorectal cancer, depending on age. We found a statistically significant decrease in colorectal cancer recurrence among patients diagnosed in 1994-2003 compared with those diagnosed in 1975-1984 for 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis (hazard ratios between 0.43 and 0.70). Conclusions: We derived population-based annual recurrence rates for up to 10 years after diagnosis using relative survival data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is rolling out 2-yearly immunochemical fecal occult blood test screening in people aged 50 to 74 years. This study aimed to evaluate the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending the NBCSP to younger and/or older ages. Methods: A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate the fully rolled-out NBCSP and alternative strategies assuming screening starts at 40 or 45 years and/or ceases at 79 or 84 years given three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence (100%), (ii) high adherence (60%), and (ii) low adherence (40%, as currently achieved). Results: The current NBCSP will reduce colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) by 23% to 51% (36% to 74%) compared with no screening (range reflects participation); extending screening to younger or older ages would result in additional reductions of 2 to 6 (2 to 9) or 1 to 3 (3 to 7) percentage points, respectively. With an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS), only screening from 50 to 74 years [incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER): A$2,984-5,981/LYS) or from 45 to 74 years (ICER: A$17,053-29,512/LYS) remained cost-effective in all participation scenarios. The number-needed-to-colonoscope to prevent a death over the lifetime of a cohort in the current NBCSP is 35 to 49. Starting screening at 45 years would increase colonoscopy demand for program-related colonoscopies by 3% to 14% and be associated with 55 to 170 additional colonoscopies per additional death prevented. Conclusions: Starting screening at 45 years could be cost-effective, but it would increase colonoscopy demand and would be associated with a less favorable incremental benefits-to-harms trade-off than screening from 50 to 74 years. Impact: The study underpins recently updated Australian colorectal cancer management guidelines that recommend that the NBCSP continues to offer bowel screening from 50 to 74 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to predict the long-term colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, andcolonoscopydemand of the recently implemented Dutch colorectal cancer screening program. Methods: The Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal Cancer model was set up to simulate the Dutch screening program consisting of biennial fecal immunochemical testing combined with the new Dutch surveillance guidelines, between 2014 and 2044. The impact of screening and surveillance was evaluated under three sets of natural history assumptions differing in the contribution of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer incidence. In sensitivity analyses, other assumptions concerning the serrated pathway were varied. Model-predicted outcomes were yearly colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and colonoscopy demand per year. Results: Assuming an aging population, colorectal cancer incidence under 30 years of screening is predicted to decrease by 35% and 31% for a contribution of 0% and 30% of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer, respectively. For colorectal cancer mortality, reductions are 47% and 45%. In 2044, 110,000 colonoscopies will be required annually assuming no contribution of the serrated pathway (27 per 1,000 individuals in the screening age range). Including the serrated pathway influences predicted screening effectiveness if serrated lesions are neither detected nor treated at colonoscopy, and/or if colorectal cancers arising from serrated lesions have substantially lower survival rates than those arising from adenomas. Conclusions: The Dutch screening program will markedly decrease colorectal cancer incidence and mortality but considerable colonoscopy resources will be required. Impact: Predictions of long-term screening effectiveness are preferably based on both pathways to colorectal cancer to transparently describe the impact of uncertainties regarding the serrated pathway on long-term predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a study on higher fecal immunochemical test (FIT) cutoff levels. The researchers aimed to assess the effect of higher cutoff levels of a quantitative FIT on test positivity rate and detection rate of early-stage colorectal cancers (CRC). The researchers asked subjects above 40 years old scheduled for colonoscopy in 5 hospitals to sample a single FIT before colonoscopy. The results indicate that higher FIT cutoff levels substantially decrease test positivity rates with only limited effects on detection rates of early-stage CRCs.

Real-world data are necessitated to counsel patients about the risk for recurrent disease after curative treatment of colorectal cancer. This study provided a population-based overview of the epidemiology of recurrent disease in patients with surgically resected stage II/III colorectal cancer.Patients diagnosed with stage II/III primary colorectal cancer between July and December 2015 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (N = 3,762). Cumulative incidence of recurrent disease was estimated, and multivariable competing risk regression was used to identify risk factors for recurrent disease in patients with primary colon and rectal cancer. Moreover, overall survival (OS) after diagnosis of recurrent colorectal cancer was estimated.Median clinical follow-up was 58 months (Q1-Q3: 22-62). Five-year cumulative incidence of recurrent disease was 21.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 20.0-23.2] and 30.0% (95% CI: 28.3-33.5) for patients with primary colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Stage III disease and incomplete resection margin in patients with primary colon cancer and extramural vascular invasion in patients with primary rectal cancer were strongly (HR ≥ 2) associated with recurrent disease. Median OS of patients with distant, locoregional, or the synchronous combination of distant and locoregional recurrent disease was 29, 27, and 13 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients with distant recurrences limited to liver or lung showed a median OS of 46 and 48 months, respectively. The incidence of recurrent disease was higher in patients with rectal cancer than in patients with colon cancer, predominantly due to higher rates of distant recurrences. OS after recurrent disease was impaired, but subgroups of patients diagnosed with recurrent disease limited to one site showed statistically significantly longer OS., Significance: Population-based data on recurrent colorectal cancer are rare, but crucial for counseling patients and their physicians. This large nationwide, population-based study provides an up-to-date overview of the epidemiology of recurrent disease in patients with stage II and III primary colon and rectal cancer treated with surgical resection., (© 2024 The Authors; Published by the American Association for Cancer Research.)

Current morphologic features defining advanced adenomas (size ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia or ≥25% villous component) cannot optimally distinguish individuals at high risk or low risk of metachronous colorectal cancer (me-CRC), which may result in suboptimal surveillance. Certain DNA copy-number alterations (CNAs) are associated with adenoma-to-carcinoma progression. We aimed to evaluate whether these molecular features can better predict an individual's risk of me-CRC than the morphologic advanced adenoma features.In this nested case-control study, 529 individuals with a single adenoma at first colonoscopy were selected from a Norwegian adenoma cohort. DNA copy-number profiles were determined, by low-coverage whole-genome sequencing. Prevalence of CNAs in advanced and non-advanced adenomas and its association (OR) with me-CRC was assessed. For the latter, cases (with me-CRC) were matched to controls (without me-CRC) on follow-up, age and sex.CNAs associated with adenoma-to-carcinoma progression were observed in 85/267 (32%) of advanced adenomas and in 27/262 (10%) of non-advanced adenomas. me-CRC was statistically significantly associated, also after adjustment for other variables, with age at baseline [OR, 1.14; 95% confidence interval CI), 1.03-1.26; P = 0.012], advanced adenomas (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.50-4.01; P < 0.001) and with the presence of ≥3 DNA copy-number losses (OR, 1.90; 95% CI. 1.02-3.54; P = 0.043).Molecularly-defined high-risk adenomas were associated with me-CRC, but the association of advanced adenoma with me-CRC was stronger., Significance: Identifying new biomarkers may improve prediction of me-CRC for individuals with adenomas and optimize surveillance intervals to reduce risk of colorectal cancer and reduce oversurveillance of patients with low risk of colorectal cancer. Use of DNA CNAs alone does not improve prediction of me-CRC. Further research to improve risk classification is required., (© 2023 The Authors; Published by the American Association for Cancer Research.)

Background: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is rolling out 2-yearly immunochemical fecal occult blood test screening in people aged 50 to 74 years. This study aimed to evaluate the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending the NBCSP to younger and/or older ages., Methods: A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate the fully rolled-out NBCSP and alternative strategies assuming screening starts at 40 or 45 years and/or ceases at 79 or 84 years given three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence (100%), (ii) high adherence (60%), and (ii) low adherence (40%, as currently achieved)., Results: The current NBCSP will reduce colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) by 23% to 51% (36% to 74%) compared with no screening (range reflects participation); extending screening to younger or older ages would result in additional reductions of 2 to 6 (2 to 9) or 1 to 3 (3 to 7) percentage points, respectively. With an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS), only screening from 50 to 74 years [incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER): A$2,984-5,981/LYS) or from 45 to 74 years (ICER: A$17,053-29,512/LYS) remained cost-effective in all participation scenarios. The number-needed-to-colonoscope to prevent a death over the lifetime of a cohort in the current NBCSP is 35 to 49. Starting screening at 45 years would increase colonoscopy demand for program-related colonoscopies by 3% to 14% and be associated with 55 to 170 additional colonoscopies per additional death prevented., Conclusions: Starting screening at 45 years could be cost-effective, but it would increase colonoscopy demand and would be associated with a less favorable incremental benefits-to-harms trade-off than screening from 50 to 74 years., Impact: The study underpins recently updated Australian colorectal cancer management guidelines that recommend that the NBCSP continues to offer bowel screening from 50 to 74 years., (©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.)

About 5% of colorectal adenomas are estimated to progress to colorectal cancer. However, it is important to identify which adenomas actually carry a high risk of progression, because these serve as intermediate endpoints, for example, in screening programs. In clinical practice, adenomas with a size of ≥10 mm, villous component and/or high-grade dysplasia, called advanced adenomas, are considered high risk, although solid evidence for this classification is lacking. Specific DNA copy number changes are associated with adenoma-to-carcinoma progression. We set out to determine the prevalence of cancer-associated events (CAE) in advanced and nonadvanced adenomas. DNA copy number analysis was performed on archival tissues from three independent series of, in total, 297 adenomas (120 nonadvanced and 177 advanced) using multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification or low-coverage whole-genome DNA sequencing. Alterations in two or more CAEs were considered to mark adenomas as high risk. Two or more CAEs were overall present in 25% (95% CI, 19.0-31.8) of advanced adenomas; 23% (11/48), 36% (12/33), and 23% (22/96) of the advanced adenomas in series 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 1.7% (1/58) and 4.8% (3/62) of the nonadvanced adenomas, in series 1 and 2, respectively. The majority of advanced adenomas do not show CAEs, indicating that only a subset of these lesions is to be considered high risk. Nonadvanced adenomas have very low prevalence of CAEs, although those with CAEs should be considered high risk as well. Specific DNA copy number alterations may better reflect the true progression risk than the advanced adenoma phenotype. Cancer Prev Res; 11(7); 403-12. ©2018 AACR ., (©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Using a bioinformatics-based strategy, we set out to identify hypermethylated genes that could serve as biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) in stool. In addition, the complementary value to a Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) was evaluated. Candidate genes were selected by applying cluster alignment and computational analysis of promoter regions to microarray-expression data of colorectal adenomas and carcinomas. DNA methylation was measured by quantitative methylation-specific PCR on 34 normal colon mucosa, 71 advanced adenoma, and 64 CRC tissues. The performance as biomarker was tested in whole stool samples from in total 193 subjects, including 19 with advanced adenoma and 66 with CRC. For a large proportion of these series, methylation data for GATA4 and OSMR were available for comparison. The complementary value to FIT was measured in stool subsamples from 92 subjects including 44 with advanced adenoma or CRC. Phosphatase and Actin Regulator 3 (PHACTR3) was identified as a novel hypermethylated gene showing more than 70-fold increased DNA methylation levels in advanced neoplasia compared with normal colon mucosa. In a stool training set, PHACTR3 methylation showed a sensitivity of 55% (95% CI: 33-75) for CRC and a specificity of 95% (95% CI: 87-98). In a stool validation set, sensitivity reached 66% (95% CI: 50-79) for CRC and 32% (95% CI: 14-57) for advanced adenomas at a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 86-100). Adding PHACTR3 methylation to FIT increased sensitivity for CRC up to 15%. PHACTR3 is a new hypermethylated gene in CRC with a good performance in stool DNA testing and has complementary value to FIT.

Background: Adjusting the threshold for positivity of quantitative fecal immunochemical tests (FIT) allows for controlling the number of follow-up colonoscopies in a screening program. However, it is unknown to what extent higher cutoff levels affect detection rates of screen-relevant neoplasia. This study aimed to assess the effect of higher cutoff levels of a quantitative FIT on test positivity rate and detection rate of early-stage colorectal cancers (CRC)., Methods: Subjects above 40 years old scheduled for colonoscopy in 5 hospitals were asked to sample a single FIT (OC sensor) before colonoscopy. Screen-relevant neoplasia were defined as advanced adenoma or early-stage cancer (stage I and II). Positivity rate, sensitivity, and specificity were evaluated at increasing cutoff levels of 50 to 200 ng/mL., Results: In 2,145 individuals who underwent total colonoscopy, 79 patients were diagnosed with CRC, 38 of which were with early-stage disease. Advanced adenomas were found in 236 patients. When varying cutoff levels from ≥ 50 to ≥ 200 ng/mL, positivity rates ranged from 16.5% to 10.2%. With increasing cutoff levels, sensitivity for early-stage CRCs and for screen-relevant neoplasia ranged from 84.2% to 78.9% and 47.1% to 37.2%, respectively., Conclusions: Higher FIT cutoff levels substantially decrease test positivity rates with only limited effects on detection rates of early-stage CRCs. However, spectrum bias resulting in higher estimates of sensitivity than would be expected in a screening population may be present., Impact: Higher cutoff levels can reduce strain on colonoscopy capacity with only a modest decrease in sensitivity for curable cancers., (©2010 AACR.)