201. New approaches to quantifying the magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global aerosol models
- Author
-
Philip Stier, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Dominick V. Spracklen, Graham Mann, Kenneth S. Carslaw, Lindsay Lee, and Kirsty J. Pringle
- Subjects
Global climate ,Climatology ,Range (statistics) ,Magnitude (mathematics) ,Environmental science ,Sampling (statistics) ,Forcing (mathematics) ,Radiative forcing ,Atmospheric sciences ,Uncertainty analysis ,Aerosol - Abstract
The impact of aerosols on global climate is an area of science that is dominated by uncertainty. The multi-model ensemble range of aerosol indirect forcing estimates has hardly changed through the last three IPCC assessments despite significant advances in our understanding of aerosol processes. In this paper we suggest that new approaches need to be taken to tackle the “uncertainty problem” head on. Here we show how emulators, Monte Carlotype sampling of model output and variance-based uncertainty analysis can be combined to generate an unprecedented amount of information about the magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global aerosol and radiative forcing. The impact of aerosols on global climate is an area of science that is dominated by uncertainty. The multi-model ensemble range of aerosol indirect forcing estimates has hardly changed through the last three IPCC assessments despite significant advances in our understanding of aerosol processes. In this paper we suggest that new approaches need to be ...
- Published
- 2013