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Time management under uncertainty is essential to large scale projects. From space exploration to industrial production, there is a need to schedule and perform activities. given complex specifications on timing. In order to generate schedules that are robust to uncertainty in the duration of activities, prior work has focused on a problem framing that uses an interval-bounded uncertainty representation. However, such approaches are unable to take advantage of known probability distributions over duration. In this paper we concentrate on a probabilistic formulation of temporal problems with uncertain duration, called the probabilistic simple temporal problem. As distributions often have an unbounded range of outcomes, we consider chance-constrained solutions, with guarantees on the probability of meeting temporal constraints. By considering distributions over uncertain duration, we are able to use risk as a resource, reason over the relative likelihood of outcomes, and derive higher utility solutions. We first demonstrate our approach by encoding the problem as a convex program. We then develop a more efficient hybrid algorithm whose parent solver generates risk allocations and whose child solver generates schedules for a particular risk allocation. The child is made efficient by leveraging existing interval-bounded scheduling algorithms, while the parent is made efficient by extracting conflicts over risk allocations. We perform numerical experiments to show the advantages of reasoning over probabilistic uncertainty, by comparing the utility of schedules generated with risk allocation against those generated from reasoning over bounded uncertainty. We also empirically show that solution time is greatly reduced by incorporating conflict-directed risk allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing desire for autonomous systems to have high levels of robustness and safety, attained through continuously planning and self-repairing online. Underlying this is the need to accurately estimate the system state and diagnose subtle failures. Esti- mation methods based on hybrid discrete and continuous state models have emerged as a method of precisely computing these estimates. However, existing methods have difficulty scaling to systems with more than a handful of components. Discrete, consistency based state estimation capabilities can scale to this level by combining best-first enumeration and conict-directed search. While best-first methods have been developed for hybrid estima- tion, conict-directed methods have thus far been elusive as conicts learn inconsistencies from constraint violation, but probabilistic hybrid estimation is relatively unconstrained. In this paper we present an approach to hybrid estimation that unifies best-first enumeration and conict-directed search through the concept of \bounding" conicts, an extension of conicts that represent tighter bounds on the cost of regions of the search space. This paper presents a general best-first enumeration algorithm based on bounding conicts (A*BC) and a hybrid estimation method using this enumeration algorithm. Experiments show that an A*BC powered state estimator produces estimates up to an order of magnitude faster than the current state of the art, particularly on large systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a model-based planner called the Probabilistic Sulu Planner or the p-Sulu Planner, which controls stochastic systems in a goal directed manner within user-specified risk bounds. The objective of the p-Sulu Planner is to allow users to command continuous, stochastic systems, such as unmanned aerial and space vehicles, in a manner that is both intuitive and safe. To this end, we first develop a new plan representation called a chance-constrained qualitative state plan (CCQSP), through which users can specify the desired evolution of the plant state as well as the acceptable level of risk. An example of a CCQSP statement is "go to A through B within 30 minutes, with less than 0.001% probability of failure." We then develop the p-Sulu Planner, which can tractably solve a CCQSP planning problem. In order to enable CCQSP planning, we develop the following two capabilities in this paper: 1) risk-sensitive planning with risk bounds, and 2) goal-directed planning in a continuous domain with temporal constraints. The first capability is to ensures that the probability of failure is bounded. The second capability is essential for the planner to solve problems with a continuous state space such as vehicle path planning. We demonstrate the capabilities of the p-Sulu Planner by simulations on two real-world scenarios: the path planning and scheduling of a personal aerial vehicle as well as the space rendezvous of an autonomous cargo spacecraft. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents Drake, a dynamic executive for temporal plans with choice. Dynamic plan execution strategies allow an autonomous agent to react quickly to unfolding events, improving the robustness of the agent. Prior work developed methods for dynamically dispatching Simple Temporal Networks, and further research enriched the expressiveness of the plans executives could handle, including discrete choices, which are the focus of this work. However, in some approaches to date, these additional choices induce significant storage or latency requirements to make flexible execution possible. Drake is designed to leverage the low latency made possible by a preprocessing step called compilation, while avoiding high memory costs through a compact representation. We leverage the concepts of labels and environments, taken from prior work in Assumption-based Truth Maintenance Systems (ATMS), to concisely record the implications of the discrete choices, exploiting the structure of the plan to avoid redundant reasoning or storage. Our labeling and maintenance scheme, called the Labeled Value Set Maintenance System, is distinguished by its focus on properties fundamental to temporal problems, and, more generally, weighted graph algorithms. In particular, the maintenance system focuses on maintaining a minimal representation of non-dominated constraints. We benchmark Drake's performance on random structured problems, and find that Drake reduces the size of the compiled representation by a factor of over 500 for large problems, while incurring only a modest increase in run-time latency, compared to prior work in compiled executives for temporal plans with discrete choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]