1. Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- Author
-
Reitsma, Marissa B., Fullman, Nancy, Ng, Marie, Salama, Joseph S., Abajobir, Amanuel, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Biju, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Aleman, Alicia V., Ali, Raghib, Al Alkerwi, Ala'a, Allebeck, Peter, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad, Amare, Azmeraw T., Amberbir, Alemayehu, Ammar, Walid, Amrock, Stephen Marc, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Asayesh, Hamid, Atnafu, Niguse Tadela, Azzopardi, Peter, Banerjee, Amitava, Barac, Aleksandra, Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh, Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Bell, Brent, Bello, Aminu K., Bensenor, Isabela M., Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Biryukov, Stan, Bolt, Kaylin, Brenner, Hermann, Butt, Zahid, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Cercy, Kelly, Chen, Honglei, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Ciobanu, Liliana G., Colistro, Valentina, Colomar, Mercedes, Cornaby, Leslie, Dai, Xiaochen, Damtew, Solomon Abrha, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dansereau, Emily, Davletov, Kairat, Dayama, Anand, Degfie, Tizta Tilahun, Deribew, Amare, Dharmaratne, Samath D., Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu, Doyle, Kerrie E., Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Estep, Kara, Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L., Feigl, Andrea B., Fischer, Florian, Friedman, Joseph, Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gall, Seana L., Gao, Wayne, Gillum, Richard F., Gold, Audra L., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gotay, Carolyn C., Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Vipin, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hankey, Graeme, Harb, Hilda L., Hay, Simon I., Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H. Dean, Husseini, Abdullatif, Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile, Islami, Farhad, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B., Kabir, Zubair, Kamal, Ritul, Kasaeian, Amir, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef S., Khalil, Ibrahim, Khang, Young-Ho, Khera, Sahil, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Knibbs, Luke D., Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kopec, Jacek, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A., Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Krohn, Kristopher J., Krueger, Hans, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, G. Anil, Leasher, Janet L., Lee, Alexander, Leinsalu, Mall, Li, Tong, Linn, Shai, Liu, Patrick, Liu, Shiwei, Lo, Loon-Tzian, Lopez, Alan D., Ma, Stefan, Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Manamo, Wondimu Ayele, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Mekonnen, Alemayehu Berhane, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Morawska, Lidia, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Nagel, Gabriele, Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Nguyen, Quyen, Nguyen, Grant, Oh, In-Hwan, Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel, Mahesh, P. A., Pana, Adrian, Park, Eun-Kee, Patil, Snehal T., Patton, George C., Pedro, Joao, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rafay, Anwar, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Ram, Usha, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Refaat, Amany H., Reinig, Nickolas, Roba, Hirbo Shore, Rodriguez, Alina, Roman, Yesenia, Roth, Gregory, Roy, Ambuj, Sagar, Rajesh, Salomon, Joshua, Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar de Souza, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Sawyer, Susan, Saylan, Mete, Schaub, Michael P., Schluger, Neil, Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Serdar, Berrin, Shaikh, Masood Ali, She, Jun, Shin, Min-Jeong, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silverberg, Jonathan I., Singh, Jasvinder, Singh, Virendra, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Soneji, Samir, Soriano, Joan B., Soshnikov, Sergey, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stein, Dan J., Stranges, Saverio, Subart, Michelle L., Swaminathan, Soumya, Szoeke, Cassandra E. I., Tefera, Worku Mekonnen, Topor-Madry, Roman, Tran, Bach, Tsilimparis, Nikolaos, Tymeson, Hayley, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Updike, Rachel, Uthman, Olalekan A., Violante, Francesco Saverio, Vladimirov, Sergey K., Vlassov, Vasiliy, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Wen, Chi-Pan, Werdecker, Andrea, Wilson, Shelley, Wubshet, Mamo, Xiao, Lin, Yakob, Bereket, Yano, Yuichiro, Ye, Penpeng, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z., Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zhang, Anthony Lin, Zipkin, Ben, Murray, Christopher J. L., Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Gakidou, Emmanuela, Reitsma, Marissa B., Fullman, Nancy, Ng, Marie, Salama, Joseph S., Abajobir, Amanuel, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Biju, Abyu, Gebre Yitayih, Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Aleman, Alicia V., Ali, Raghib, Al Alkerwi, Ala'a, Allebeck, Peter, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa Mohammad, Amare, Azmeraw T., Amberbir, Alemayehu, Ammar, Walid, Amrock, Stephen Marc, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Asayesh, Hamid, Atnafu, Niguse Tadela, Azzopardi, Peter, Banerjee, Amitava, Barac, Aleksandra, Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh, Basto-Abreu, Ana Cristina, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Bell, Brent, Bello, Aminu K., Bensenor, Isabela M., Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Biryukov, Stan, Bolt, Kaylin, Brenner, Hermann, Butt, Zahid, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Cercy, Kelly, Chen, Honglei, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Ciobanu, Liliana G., Colistro, Valentina, Colomar, Mercedes, Cornaby, Leslie, Dai, Xiaochen, Damtew, Solomon Abrha, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dansereau, Emily, Davletov, Kairat, Dayama, Anand, Degfie, Tizta Tilahun, Deribew, Amare, Dharmaratne, Samath D., Dimtsu, Balem Demtsu, Doyle, Kerrie E., Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Estep, Kara, Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino, Farzadfar, Farshad, Feigin, Valery L., Feigl, Andrea B., Fischer, Florian, Friedman, Joseph, Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gall, Seana L., Gao, Wayne, Gillum, Richard F., Gold, Audra L., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Gotay, Carolyn C., Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Vipin, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hankey, Graeme, Harb, Hilda L., Hay, Simon I., Horino, Masako, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H. Dean, Husseini, Abdullatif, Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile, Islami, Farhad, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B., Kabir, Zubair, Kamal, Ritul, Kasaeian, Amir, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef S., Khalil, Ibrahim, Khang, Young-Ho, Khera, Sahil, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Knibbs, Luke D., Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kolte, Dhaval, Kopec, Jacek, Kosen, Soewarta, Kotsakis, Georgios A., Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Krohn, Kristopher J., Krueger, Hans, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, G. Anil, Leasher, Janet L., Lee, Alexander, Leinsalu, Mall, Li, Tong, Linn, Shai, Liu, Patrick, Liu, Shiwei, Lo, Loon-Tzian, Lopez, Alan D., Ma, Stefan, Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Manamo, Wondimu Ayele, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Mekonnen, Alemayehu Berhane, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Morawska, Lidia, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Nagel, Gabriele, Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Nguyen, Quyen, Nguyen, Grant, Oh, In-Hwan, Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel, Mahesh, P. A., Pana, Adrian, Park, Eun-Kee, Patil, Snehal T., Patton, George C., Pedro, Joao, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rafay, Anwar, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Ram, Usha, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Refaat, Amany H., Reinig, Nickolas, Roba, Hirbo Shore, Rodriguez, Alina, Roman, Yesenia, Roth, Gregory, Roy, Ambuj, Sagar, Rajesh, Salomon, Joshua, Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar de Souza, Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Sawyer, Susan, Saylan, Mete, Schaub, Michael P., Schluger, Neil, Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Serdar, Berrin, Shaikh, Masood Ali, She, Jun, Shin, Min-Jeong, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silverberg, Jonathan I., Singh, Jasvinder, Singh, Virendra, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Soneji, Samir, Soriano, Joan B., Soshnikov, Sergey, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stein, Dan J., Stranges, Saverio, Subart, Michelle L., Swaminathan, Soumya, Szoeke, Cassandra E. I., Tefera, Worku Mekonnen, Topor-Madry, Roman, Tran, Bach, Tsilimparis, Nikolaos, Tymeson, Hayley, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Updike, Rachel, Uthman, Olalekan A., Violante, Francesco Saverio, Vladimirov, Sergey K., Vlassov, Vasiliy, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Wen, Chi-Pan, Werdecker, Andrea, Wilson, Shelley, Wubshet, Mamo, Xiao, Lin, Yakob, Bereket, Yano, Yuichiro, Ye, Penpeng, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z., Yu, Chuanhua, Zaidi, Zoubida, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zhang, Anthony Lin, Zipkin, Ben, Murray, Christopher J. L., Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., and Gakidou, Emmanuela
- Abstract
Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF