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Abstract: Dormant seeds in permanent soil seed banks change their germination probability with age, but little is known about the causes of this behavior. Since current adaptive models do not consider the age structure of the seed bank, the sole explanation is that changes in germination probability with age are due to passive accidental factors or to decay of seeds. Here we present a theory, which shows that such changes might be adaptive. In particular, in density-regulated populations, the evolutionarily stable fraction of germinating seeds in each age class increases with age whenever age-dependent mortality of dormant seeds remains constant or increases with age. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Predicting responses of plant communities to environmental changes is a key challenge in ecology. Here we examined climate-related mechanisms regulating seedling dynamics of a common Mediterranean shrub. Our objective was to analyze effects of water availability on seedling survival and to determine whether geographical gradients can serve as proxy for predicting local climate change effects. We conducted a field experiment along a natural rainfall gradient with additional long-term rainfall manipulations at a Mediterranean site, enabling the investigation of the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors on seedling dynamics. Along the natural and artificial rainfall gradient seedling survival increased with increasing soil water availability. However, seedling survival at the Mediterranean site yielded a clear trend of decreasing seedling survival with artificially increasing aridity whereas at the dry end of the geographical gradient seedling survival was relatively high. We attribute this pattern to biotic interactions, which appeared less negative at the dry end. These findings indicate that ignoring biotic interactions is misleading when predicting shifts in the distribution of species under climate change and that because of the complex interplay between abiotic and biotic factors, environmental gradients can be poor proxies for predicting the response of plant species to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]