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Abstract Background China and other developing countries in Asia follow similar economic growth patterns described by the flying geese (FG) model, which explains the "catching-up" process of industrialization in latecomer economies. Japan, newly industrialized economies, and China have followed this path, with similar economic development trajectories. Based on the FG model, we postulated a "flying S" hypothesis stating that if a country is located within an FG region and its energy matrix is relatively constant, its per capita CO 2 emission curve will mirror that of "leading geese" countries in the same FG group. Method Historical CO 2 emissions data were obtained from literature review and national reports and were calculated using bottom-up methods. A sigmoid-shaped, non-linear mixed effect model was applied to examine ex post data with 1000 simulated predictions to construct 95% empirical bands from these fits. By multiplying by estimated population, we predicted total emissions of selected FG countries. Results Per capita CO 2 emissions from the same FG group mirror each other, especially among second and third industrial sectors. We estimated an annual 18,252.24 million tons of CO 2 emissions (MtCO 2) (95% CI = 9458.88–23,972.88) in China and 8281.76 MtCO2 (95% CI = 2765.68–14,959.12) in India in 2030. Conclusion This study bridges the macroeconomic FG paradigm to study climate change and proposes a "flying S" hypothesis to predict greenhouse gas emissions in East Asia. By applying our theory to empirical data, we provide an alternative framework to predict CO 2 emissions in 2030 and beyond. Highlights • Per capita CO 2 emissions from developing countries in Asia follow economic growth patterns, described as flying geese model. • Per capita CO 2 emissions trajectory in one country can forecast the emissions in another, under two assumptions. • Our flying-S model provides business-as-usual scenario, predicting counterfactual CO 2 emissions without any intervention. • In 2030, we estimated more than 18 billion tons of CO 2 (BtCO 2) emission in China, and 8 BtCO 2 in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]