Search

An SEI metapopulation model is developed for the spread of an infectious agent by migration. The model portrays two age classes on a number of patches connected by migration routes which are used as host animals mature. A feature of this model is that the basic reproduction ratio may be computed directly, using a scheme that separates topography, demography, and epidemiology. We also provide formulas for individual patch basic reproduction numbers and discuss their connection with the basic reproduction ratio for the system. The model is applied to the problem of spatial spread of bovine tuberculosis in a possum population. The temporal dynamics of infection are investigated for some generic networks of migration links, and the basic reproduction ratio is computed-its value is not greatly different from that for a homogeneous model. Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations.

A possible method of control for the management of wild populations consists of continual introgression of an inducible transgene by releasing transgenic individuals, with periodic exposure of the population to a trigger. Exposure to the trigger causes death or sterility in carriers of the transgene, but is otherwise benign. We investigate the effectiveness of various strategies for control. We show that suppression of the population density below any pre-specified level is possible using this technique. At the same time we show that too frequent or too efficient exposure to the trigger can select for non-transgenic genotypes at an intensity such that the population density will be largely unaffected by the trigger. Choices for management parameters can ensure that the latter scenario is avoided. We show that releasing individuals carrying the transgene at more than one locus facilitates density control., (Copyright 2000 Academic Press.)