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Incomplete lineage sorting has been documented across a diverse set of taxa ranging from song birds to conifers. Such patterns are expected theoretically for species characterized by certain life history characteristics (e.g. long generation times) and those influenced by certain historical demographic events (e.g. recent divergences). A number of methods to estimate the underlying species phylogeny from a set of gene trees have been proposed and shown to be effective when incomplete lineage sorting has occurred. The further effects of gene flow on those methods, however, remain to be investigated. Here, we focus on the performance of three methods of species tree inference, ESP-COAL, minimizing deep coalescence (MDC), and concatenation, when incomplete lineage sorting and gene flow jointly confound the relationship between gene and species trees. Performance was investigated using Monte Carlo coalescent simulations under four models (n-island, stepping stone, parapatric, and allopatric) and three magnitudes of gene flow (N(e)m=0.01, 0.10, 1.00). Although results varied by the model and magnitude of gene flow, methods incorporating aspects of the coalescent process (ESP-COAL and MDC) performed well, with probabilities of identifying the correct species tree topology typically increasing to greater than 0.75 when five more loci are sampled. The only exceptions to that pattern included gene flow at moderate to high magnitudes under the n-island and stepping stone models. Concatenation performs poorly relative to the other methods. We extend these results to a discussion of the importance of species and population phylogenies to the fields of molecular systematics and phylogeography using an empirical example from Rhododendron.

Pines comprise one of the largest coniferous genera, are distributed throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and have an abundant fossil record. Distributions of fossils have been used to derive a three-step hypothesis of early pine evolution, which postulates a Mesozoic origin for the genus, east-west expansions across Laurasia, and retraction into Eocene refugia. Here, we present phylogenetic tests of this hypothesis using chloroplast sequence data from four loci for 83 pine species. We used the fossil-based hypothesis to derive null expectations concerning monophyly of taxonomic groups, dates of cladogenesis, and patterns of diversification. Phylogenetic analyses using several algorithms subsequently provided rigorous tests of these expectations. Our inferred phylogenies illustrated broad congruence with taxonomic groups, but highlighted consistent problems within subgenus Strobus. Estimated minimum dates of divergence derived from relaxed clock methods were largely consistent with the fossil record and yielded a date for the ingroup node of Pinus of 128+/-4 mya, depending upon the calibration used for subgenus Pinus. Ancestral area reconstructions showed Pinus to have most likely originated in Eurasia. Major clades differed in biogeographic patterns, but were consistent with the fossil-based hypothesis. We found weak support, however, for a change in diversification rate in the Eocene as interpretations of fossil distributions would have predicted.