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The water ecological security pattern is a core factor. A scientific, accurate, and practical evaluation of water ecological security provides a theoretical basis for regional water ecological management. Using water resource data from five cities in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province (Jiuquan (JQ), Jiayuguan (JYG), Zhangye (ZY), Jinchang (JC), and Wuwei (WW)) from 2006 to 2021, a water ecological security evaluation index system based on the PSR (pressure-state-response) framework was constructed, covering 27 factors related to water resources, socio-economics, and the ecological environment. The main obstacle factors of water ecological security were identified using the obstacle degree model, and the grey GM(1,1) model was employed to predict water ecological security. Results indicated that the comprehensive assessment index of water ecology in the Hexi Corridor increased from 2006 to 2021, showing a transition from relatively unsafe (0.319) to basic safety and then to relatively safe (0.672). The pressure and response systems were the main limiting factors affecting water ecological security in the Hexi Corridor. After a slight decline in 2008, the overall spatial distribution continued to rise, with WW City and ZY City leading since 2016. ZY had a higher safety grade proportion (25%) compared to other areas in the Hexi region. The pressure system was the most significant obstacle to water ecological security after 2006. Prediction results indicated that the comprehensive evaluation index of water ecological security would continue to rise annually from 2022 to 2031, reaching a very safe level by 2025. The evaluation results provide a scientific basis for ecological security and risk decision-making in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of industrial electricity consumption is not only beneficial to maintaining the steady development of the economy but also to conserving energy. To improve the prediction accuracy of industrial electricity consumption, a grey cluster weighted Markov model is proposed. It is applied to predict the industrial electricity consumption in four different regions in China. The prediction results are compared with the traditional discrete grey prediction model, which shows that the present model is more effective in these aspects of prediction accuracy, stability and extensibility. The research can provide theoretical references for the "West-East electricity transmission project" in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The challenge of predicting time series with limited data has evolved over time due to nonlinearity, complexity, and limited information. It can be perceived as a mapping of dynamical systems in one-dimensional space. This article proposes a neural grey system to tackle this challenge. The system enhances its ability to fit nonlinearity by employing polynomials, captures complexity through a fractional-order cumulant operator, and resolves information-poor uncertainty by utilizing grey system modeling techniques. The model effectively integrates research findings from neural computing, uncertainty theory, and complexity theory at a theoretical level. It accurately describes dynamic processes of complex systems. Additionally, we have reduced the complexity of calculations in the algorithm design. We selected a dataset of total retail sales of consumer goods to test the model's validity and applicability. Our experiments demonstrate that the newly proposed grey forecasting model can effectively forecast time series with small samples, offering good forecasting outcomes and generalization ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to predict the carbon sequestration capacity of Chinese grasslands to address climate change and achieve carbon neutrality goals. Grassland carbon sequestration is a crucial part of the global carbon cycle. However, its capacity is significantly impacted by climate change and human activities, making its dynamic changes complex and challenging to predict. This study adopts a fractional-order accumulation grey model, using 11 provinces in China as samples, to analyze and forecast grassland carbon sequestration. The study finds significant differences in grassland carbon sequestration trends across the sample regions. The carbon sequestration capacity of the grasslands in Xizang (Tibet) and Heilongjiang province is increasing, while it is decreasing in other provinces. The varying prediction results are influenced not only by regional climatic and natural conditions, but also by human interventions such as overgrazing, irrational reclamation, excessive mineral resource exploitation, and increased tourism development. Therefore, more region-specific grassland management and protection strategies should be formulated to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of grasslands and promote the sustainable development of ecosystems. The significance of this study lies not only in providing scientific guidance for the protection and sustainable management of Chinese grasslands, but also in contributing theoretical and practical insights into global carbon sequestration strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The open burning of sugarcane residue is commonly used as a low-cost and fast method during pre-harvest and post-harvest periods. However, this practice releases various pollutants, including dioxins. This study aims to predict polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs or dioxins) emissions using the grey model (GM (1,1)) and to map the annual flux spatial distribution at the provincial level from 2023 to 2028. An annual emission inventory at the provincial level was developed using the activity rate of dry crop residue from national agencies and literature, following the guidelines set by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Emission distributions from 2016 to 2022 were then mapped. The average PCDD/F emission values show significant variation among the provinces, averaging 309 pg TEQ/year. Spatially, regions with intensive sugarcane production, such as Lampung and East Java consistently show high emissions, often exceeding 400 pg/m2. Emissions calculated using the UNEP emission factor tend to be higher compared to other factors, due to its generic nature and lack of regional specificity. Emission predictions using GM (1,1) indicate that North Sumatra is expected to experience a steady increase in PCDD/Fs emissions, whereas South Sumatra and Lampung are projected are projected to see a slight decline. This forecast assumes no changes in regional intervention strategies. Most regions in Java Island show a gradual increase in emissions, except for East Java, which is predicted to have a slight decline from 416 pg/year in 2023 to 397 pg/year in 2028. Additionally, regions such as Gorontalo and parts of East Java are projected to remain 'hotspots' with consistently high emissions, highlighting the need for targeted interventions. To address emission hotspots, this study emphasizes the need for cleaner agricultural practices, enhanced enforcement of environmental regulations, and the integration of advanced monitoring technologies to mitigate the environmental and health impacts of PCDD/F emissions in Indonesia. Future studies should consider developing monthly emissions profiles to better account for local agricultural practices and seasonal conditions. The emission data generated in this study, which include both spatial and temporal distributions, are valuable for air quality modeling studies and can help assess the impact of current and future emissions on ambient air quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The water ecological security pattern is a core factor. A scientific, accurate, and practical evaluation of water ecological security provides a theoretical basis for regional water ecological management. Using water resource data from five cities in the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province (Jiuquan (JQ), Jiayuguan (JYG), Zhangye (ZY), Jinchang (JC), and Wuwei (WW)) from 2006 to 2021, a water ecological security evaluation index system based on the PSR (pressure-state-response) framework was constructed, covering 27 factors related to water resources, socio-economics, and the ecological environment. The main obstacle factors of water ecological security were identified using the obstacle degree model, and the grey GM(1,1) model was employed to predict water ecological security. Results indicated that the comprehensive assessment index of water ecology in the Hexi Corridor increased from 2006 to 2021, showing a transition from relatively unsafe (0.319) to basic safety and then to relatively safe (0.672). The pressure and response systems were the main limiting factors affecting water ecological security in the Hexi Corridor. After a slight decline in 2008, the overall spatial distribution continued to rise, with WW City and ZY City leading since 2016. ZY had a higher safety grade proportion (25%) compared to other areas in the Hexi region. The pressure system was the most significant obstacle to water ecological security after 2006. Prediction results indicated that the comprehensive evaluation index of water ecological security would continue to rise annually from 2022 to 2031, reaching a very safe level by 2025. The evaluation results provide a scientific basis for ecological security and risk decision-making in the study area.

Abstract Precise forecasting of satellite clock bias is crucial for ensuring service quality and enhancing the efficiency of real-time precise point positioning (PPP).The grey model with many benefits is an excellent choice for predicting real-time clock bias. However, the absolute prediction error of a small number of satellites is very high in actual forecasting process. In order to address this issue, a non-homogeneous white exponential law grey model has been constructed specifically for predicting clock bias sequences with non-homogeneous class ratio approximating constants. Considering that any model is difficult to apply to different kinds of satellite clocks and clock bias signals, an adaptive selection strategy for forecast model is proposed to ensure more excellent prediction accuracy. Afterwards, a prediction scenario based on the observed products of the BeiDou satellite navigation system (BDS) is created to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach described in this article. The outcomes of the method are then compared with those of a single grey model and the ultra-rapid predicted products. The outcomes demonstrate that this strategy’s prediction accuracy is less than 1 ns/day and that its prediction uncertainty is much decreased, which may improve data selection for real-time applications like real-time kinematics (RTK) and PPP.

Abstract The challenge of predicting time series with limited data has evolved over time due to nonlinearity, complexity, and limited information. It can be perceived as a mapping of dynamical systems in one-dimensional space. This article proposes a neural grey system to tackle this challenge. The system enhances its ability to fit nonlinearity by employing polynomials, captures complexity through a fractional-order cumulant operator, and resolves information-poor uncertainty by utilizing grey system modeling techniques. The model effectively integrates research findings from neural computing, uncertainty theory, and complexity theory at a theoretical level. It accurately describes dynamic processes of complex systems. Additionally, we have reduced the complexity of calculations in the algorithm design. We selected a dataset of total retail sales of consumer goods to test the model’s validity and applicability. Our experiments demonstrate that the newly proposed grey forecasting model can effectively forecast time series with small samples, offering good forecasting outcomes and generalization ability.

Objective This study addresses challenges associated with controlling the thickening time of cement slurries at elevated temperatures (exceeding 120 ℃), including prolonged experimental periods and difficulties in predicting thickening times. Methods This article explores the factors influencing the thickening time of cement slurries at high temperatures through fitting methods and constructs a predictive model develops a predictive model utilizing grey theory. Results The findings indicate that the thickening time of cement slurries is primarily influenced by the dosage of retarders, curing conditions, and specific additives, with varying degrees of impact under different conditions. The grey model used to predict the thickening time for the first time exhibits high accuracy and is suitable for small samples. Conclusion The sensitivity analysis of the factors affecting the thickening time at high temperatures and the establishment of a predictive model significantly reduce the cost of cement slurry thickening experiments and provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of thickening times in high-temperature cement slurries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise forecasting of satellite clock bias is crucial for ensuring service quality and enhancing the efficiency of real-time precise point positioning (PPP).The grey model with many benefits is an excellent choice for predicting real-time clock bias. However, the absolute prediction error of a small number of satellites is very high in actual forecasting process. In order to address this issue, a non-homogeneous white exponential law grey model has been constructed specifically for predicting clock bias sequences with non-homogeneous class ratio approximating constants. Considering that any model is difficult to apply to different kinds of satellite clocks and clock bias signals, an adaptive selection strategy for forecast model is proposed to ensure more excellent prediction accuracy. Afterwards, a prediction scenario based on the observed products of the BeiDou satellite navigation system (BDS) is created to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach described in this article. The outcomes of the method are then compared with those of a single grey model and the ultra-rapid predicted products. The outcomes demonstrate that this strategy's prediction accuracy is less than 1 ns/day and that its prediction uncertainty is much decreased, which may improve data selection for real-time applications like real-time kinematics (RTK) and PPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractPrimary education plays an important role in the whole educational structure. The prediction of the development scale of primary schools is of great significance to the optimal allocation of educational resources by education departments. The paper introduces a novel multi-scale fractional-order Bernoulli grey model by combining a local cumulative operator with a global cumulative operator, abbreviated as MFGM. First, a nonlinear grey Bernoulli model based on conformable fractional derivative is proposed, where a hybrid accumulation is presented. Then, the MFGM parameters are obtained by an PSO optimizer, which are adaptive to data sets. Finally, the proposed model is validated and used to predict the scale of primary school scale. Experimental results show that the MFGM is superior to the other grey models and machine learning models in the fitting and testing primary school scale. The prediction results contribute to the decision-making of education sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cost control is a critical aspect of project construction management, particularly in the roadway con- struction of non-ferrous metal mines where the influencing factors are complex and variable, making cost prediction challenging. This paper proposes a cost prediction method for support engineering in non-ferrous metal mine roadways based on the grey model. A brief introduction to the grey model is provided, and a support model based on the grey model is established. Simulation of the support process is conducted, and the compilation and pricing of roadway support costs are completed. This method effectively predicts the cost of support projects, providing a scientific basis and reference for cost control in mine roadway support construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to study the variation of the absolute grey degree of reverse accumulation generates sequences, the general expression of the integer order reverse accumulation generates sequences absolute grey degree and its related properties are derived based on the class ratio relationship between the original sequence and its reverse accumulation generates sequences. The application effect of the backward-accumulative grey model incorporating absolute grey degree to the prediction of sudden-onset disasters is discussed in the context of practical problems. The results show that when the absolute grey degree of the original sequence is greater than 0.6, the reverse cumulative generation can effectively reduce the absolute grey degree of the sequence. When the absolute grey degree of the original sequence is less than 0.25, the reverse cumulative generation increases the absolute grey degree of the sequence. The findings of the study provide a reference for the model selection and data pre-processing of grey modeling in practical problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soft tissue is an important operation object in robot-assisted surgery and its mechanical response is of great significance to the precision of surgical operation. Accurate prediction of soft tissue mechanical properties can effectively avoid the potential damage of biological tissue caused by excessive operating force. In this paper, three typical mechanical responses of soft tissue were obtained by no-slip compression experiments of liver tissue. Second, the prediction model of soft tissue mechanical response based on gray prediction was established, and the influence of key parameters of the model on the precision of mechanical response prediction was analyzed. The results show that the gray prediction model can accurately predict the mechanical response of soft tissue, and the prediction accuracy is the highest when the number of historical data is 7. The prediction method of soft tissue mechanical response proposed in this paper will provide important data reference for accurate operation of surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Mining Magazine is the property of China Mining Magazine Co., Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Accurate parameter estimation of extreme wind speed distribution is of great importance for the safe utilization and assessment of wind resources. This paper emphatically establishes a novel grey generalized extreme value method for parameter estimation of annual wind speed extremum distribution (AWSED). Considering the uncertainty and frequency characteristics of the parent wind speed, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is selected as the probability distribution, and the Weibull distribution is utilized as the first-order accumulation generating operator. Then, the GEVD differential equation is derived, and it is transformed into the grey GEVD model using the differential information principle. The least squares method is used to estimate the grey GEVD model parameters, and then a novel estimation method is proposed through grey parameters. A hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize distribution parameters. The novel method is stable under different sample sizes according to Monte Carlo comparison simulation results, and the suitability for the novel method is confirmed by instance analysis in Wujiaba, Yunnan Province. The new method performs with high accuracy in various indicators, the hypothesis test results are above 95%, and the statistical errors such as MAPE and Wasserstein distance yield the lowest, which are 3.33% and 0.2556, respectively.

This study considers an application of the first-order Grey Markov Model to foresee the values of Italian power generation in relation to the available energy sources. The model is used to fit data from the Italian energy system from 2000 to 2022. The integration of Markovian error introduces a random element to the model, which is able now to capture inherent uncertainties and misalignments between the Grey Model predictions and the real data. This application provides valuable insights for strategic planning in the energy sector and future developments. The results show good accuracy of the predictions, which could provide powerful information for the effective implementation of energy policies concerning the evolution of energy demand in the country. Results show an improvement in the performance of more than 50% in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) when the Markov chain is integrated in the analysis. Despite advancements, Italy's 2032 energy mix will still significantly rely on fossil fuels, emphasizing the need for sustained efforts beyond 2032 to enhance sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Computer Measurement & Control is the property of Magazine Agency of Computer Measurement & Control and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Machine Tool & Hydraulics is the property of Guangzhou Mechanical Engineering Research Institute (GMERI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The reliability of machine tool components, particularly the tool magazine manipulator, significantly affects the overall performance of the machine tool. To address the challenge of accurately evaluating the manipulator's health status using a single performance indicator, this study proposes a method that combines Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) and a Combined Weighting Method (CWM). By considering both subjective and objective factors, this method provides a comprehensive evaluation of the manipulator's health status, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of the assessment. The method utilizes fuzzy distribution to construct membership matrices for different health levels and adopts the CWM that combines the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the combined weights of the health evaluation indices. This approach improves the accuracy and reliability by considering multiple indicators and objectively weighting them based on their importance. The current health status of the manipulator is evaluated using the fuzzy weighted average operator and the maximum membership principle. Moreover, a fault prediction method based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and GM(1,1) is proposed to overcome the information gap and small sample problems. The proposed model's prediction accuracy is verified by comparing it with other models, demonstrating its effectiveness and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International students play a crucial role in China's talent development strategy. Thus, predicting overseas talent mobility is essential for formulating scientifically reasonable talent introduction policies, optimizing talent cultivation systems, and fostering international talent cooperation. In this study, we proposed a novel fractional-order grey model based on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm to forecast the movement of overseas talent, namely MGDFGM(1,1). Compared to the traditional grey model FGM(1,1), which utilizes the same fractional order at all time points, the proposed MGDFGM(1,1) model dynamically adjusts the fractional-order values based on the time point. This dynamic adjustment enables our model to better capture the changing trends in the data, thereby enhancing the model's fitting capability. To validate the effectiveness of the MGDFGM(1,1) model, we primarily utilize Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the evaluation criteria for the prediction accuracy, as well as standard deviation (STD) as an indicator of the model stability. Furthermore, we perform experimental analysis to evaluate the predictive performance of the MGDFGM(1,1) model in comparison to NAÏVE, ARIMA, GM(1,1), FGM(1,1), LSSVR, MLP, and LSTM. The research findings demonstrate that the MGDFGM(1,1) model achieves a remarkably high level of prediction accuracy and stability for forecasting overseas talent mobility in China. The implications of this study offer valuable insights and assistance to government departments involved in overseas talent management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Southeast University / Dongnan Daxue Xuebao is the property of Journal of Southeast University Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Accurate parameter estimation of extreme wind speed distribution is of great importance for the safe utilization and assessment of wind resources. This paper emphatically establishes a novel grey generalized extreme value method for parameter estimation of annual wind speed extremum distribution (AWSED). Considering the uncertainty and frequency characteristics of the parent wind speed, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is selected as the probability distribution, and the Weibull distribution is utilized as the first-order accumulation generating operator. Then, the GEVD differential equation is derived, and it is transformed into the grey GEVD model using the differential information principle. The least squares method is used to estimate the grey GEVD model parameters, and then a novel estimation method is proposed through grey parameters. A hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize distribution parameters. The novel method is stable under different sample sizes according to Monte Carlo comparison simulation results, and the suitability for the novel method is confirmed by instance analysis in Wujiaba, Yunnan Province. The new method performs with high accuracy in various indicators, the hypothesis test results are above 95%, and the statistical errors such as MAPE and Wasserstein distance yield the lowest, which are 3.33% and 0.2556, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In traditional Wireless Sensor Network routing protocols, data collected through timed interval sensing tends to have high temporal redundancy, which leads to unnecessary energy drain. To alleviate this problem and enable sensor networks to save energy to some extent, a practical solution is to utilize prediction-based data fusion methods. To this end, this paper first proposes a Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy-Energy-Kopt-N algorithm, an optimization algorithm explicitly designed to address the cluster-head election phase of the Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy protocol. Then, a data collection model using data prediction techniques – the Grey Data Prediction Model is formatted. Combining these improvements, a new data fusion algorithm that relies on data prediction, Grey-Clusters-Leach (GCL), is proposed. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the network energy drain of the GCL algorithm is reduced by 18%, 35%, 21.5% and 20%, and the network operation critical period life is extended by 3%, 35%, 22%, and 5% compared to the EQDC LEACH, LEACH-E, and SEP algorithms, respectively. GCL can effectively manage the size and number of clusters and reduce the number of packet transmissions by 20%.

The open burning of sugarcane residue is commonly used as a low-cost and fast method during pre-harvest and post-harvest periods. However, this practice releases various pollutants, including dioxins. This study aims to predict polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs or dioxins) emissions using the grey model (GM (1,1)) and to map the annual flux spatial distribution at the provincial level from 2023 to 2028. An annual emission inventory at the provincial level was developed using the activity rate of dry crop residue from national agencies and literature, following the guidelines set by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Emission distributions from 2016 to 2022 were then mapped. The average PCDD/F emission values show significant variation among the provinces, averaging 309 pg TEQ/year. Spatially, regions with intensive sugarcane production, such as Lampung and East Java consistently show high emissions, often exceeding 400 pg/m2. Emissions calculated using the UNEP emission factor tend to be higher compared to other factors, due to its generic nature and lack of regional specificity. Emission predictions using GM (1,1) indicate that North Sumatra is expected to experience a steady increase in PCDD/Fs emissions, whereas South Sumatra and Lampung are projected are projected to see a slight decline. This forecast assumes no changes in regional intervention strategies. Most regions in Java Island show a gradual increase in emissions, except for East Java, which is predicted to have a slight decline from 416 pg/year in 2023 to 397 pg/year in 2028. Additionally, regions such as Gorontalo and parts of East Java are projected to remain ‘hotspots’ with consistently high emissions, highlighting the need for targeted interventions. To address emission hotspots, this study emphasizes the need for cleaner agricultural practices, enhanced enforcement of environmental regulations, and the integration of advanced monitoring technologies to mitigate the environmental and health impacts of PCDD/F emissions in Indonesia. Future studies should consider developing monthly emissions profiles to better account for local agricultural practices and seasonal conditions. The emission data generated in this study, which include both spatial and temporal distributions, are valuable for air quality modeling studies and can help assess the impact of current and future emissions on ambient air quality.

This study aims to predict the carbon sequestration capacity of Chinese grasslands to address climate change and achieve carbon neutrality goals. Grassland carbon sequestration is a crucial part of the global carbon cycle. However, its capacity is significantly impacted by climate change and human activities, making its dynamic changes complex and challenging to predict. This study adopts a fractional-order accumulation grey model, using 11 provinces in China as samples, to analyze and forecast grassland carbon sequestration. The study finds significant differences in grassland carbon sequestration trends across the sample regions. The carbon sequestration capacity of the grasslands in Xizang (Tibet) and Heilongjiang province is increasing, while it is decreasing in other provinces. The varying prediction results are influenced not only by regional climatic and natural conditions, but also by human interventions such as overgrazing, irrational reclamation, excessive mineral resource exploitation, and increased tourism development. Therefore, more region-specific grassland management and protection strategies should be formulated to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of grasslands and promote the sustainable development of ecosystems. The significance of this study lies not only in providing scientific guidance for the protection and sustainable management of Chinese grasslands, but also in contributing theoretical and practical insights into global carbon sequestration strategies.

The United Nations has promoted and supported the UNCTAD Creative Economy Programme since 2004 to help countries around the world understand how to promote economic development through creativity in industries. This research article aims to determine whether the creative economy will be the major engine to accelerate Thailand's economic development in the coming decade or not, and what the major creative economy sectors are that must be prioritized or initiated and focused on. The data implemented in this research cover 2011–2018, which consist of creative economy sector income, the IO table, and the SAM table. The methodology utilized in this research was the ML model, the GREY model for predicting the growth rate of income from the major creative economy sectors contribute to Thailand's economy between 2019–2025, and the CGE model. The study's empirical findings show that the significant sectoral creative economy consists of fashion, advertising, Thai food, and cultural tourism, which need to be given more stimulus. Furthermore, the economies of Chiang Mai, and Thailand as a whole, would eventually be high-income economies if creative economy sectors were to be promoted and continuously supported by efficient policies. the economic growth of Thailand and Chiang Mai would eventually become high income whenever these economies allow creative economy sectors to be promoted or supported by efficient policies continuously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the deep integration of emerging technologies and industries, big data + cultural and creative industry is not only a simple industrial superposition but also the cooperation and complementarity of natural sciences, humanities, and social sciences. In this paper, the development of intelligent cultural and creative industries is predicted by the gray model, then the residuals are corrected, and finally, the residuals are corrected again by the Markov chain to improve the prediction accuracy. The modified GM(1,1) model and the improved Markov chain are used to predict and analyze the development trend of the data-driven cultural and creative industry, and the actual total output is not much different from the predicted output, which indicates that the method constructed in this paper can reasonably predict the results. According to the prediction method designed in this paper, the development of intelligent cultural and creative industries from 2024 to 2033 is predicted, and from 2029 to 2033, the maximum total output is predicted to be 28.02×107 yuan, 32.77×107 yuan, 38.33×107 yuan, 44.83×107 yuan, and 52.43×107 yuan, respectively, and China’s intelligent cultural and creative industry will enter a stage of rapid development.

To promote the sustainable development of the karst region, investigating the spatial–temporal evolution of ecological quality and elucidating key influencing factors is significant. The study quantified the ecological quality of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA) from 2002 to 2021 using Google Earth Engine (GEE) and the Modified Remote Sensing Ecological Index (MRSEI) with soil erosion indicators. Additionally, the study analyzed MRSEI's spatial distribution, spatial–temporal transfer, and driving factors by integrating the Sen + Mann-Kendall trend test and the grey correlation degree. The grey prediction model GM (1,1) and CA-Markov model were employed to predict CYUA's future ecological condition in terms of MRSEI's mean value and spatial distribution of MRSEI rank. Results indicate that: (1) Greenness and humidity significantly enhanced the ecological environment, while dryness, heat, and soil erosion indicators had the opposite effect. The first principal component, with a mean contribution of 70.20 % across 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017, and 2021, indicated that MRSEI based on PC1 was suitable for evaluating CYUA's ecological quality. (2) Spatially, the western CYUA generally outperformed the eastern part in terms of ecological quality, with the moderate class dominating the ecological quantity. Temporally, CYUA's holistic ecological condition consistently improved between 2002 and 2021. (3) Regional height, climatic conditions, and human construction projects were key factors altering ecological quality, as evidenced by the top five MRSEI influencing factors: greenness, humidity, normalized difference impervious surface index, elevation, and average annual rainfall. (4) Forecast results suggest that areas classified as good or excellent are expected to exceed 30 % by 2029, indicating ongoing and future improvements in CYUA's ecological quality. This study serves as a reference for ecological protection and regional sustainability in karst region.

This study considers an application of the first-order Grey Markov Model to foresee the values of Italian power generation in relation to the available energy sources. The model is used to fit data from the Italian energy system from 2000 to 2022. The integration of Markovian error introduces a random element to the model, which is able now to capture inherent uncertainties and misalignments between the Grey Model predictions and the real data. This application provides valuable insights for strategic planning in the energy sector and future developments. The results show good accuracy of the predictions, which could provide powerful information for the effective implementation of energy policies concerning the evolution of energy demand in the country. Results show an improvement in the performance of more than 50% in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) when the Markov chain is integrated in the analysis. Despite advancements, Italy’s 2032 energy mix will still significantly rely on fossil fuels, emphasizing the need for sustained efforts beyond 2032 to enhance sustainability.

International students play a crucial role in China’s talent development strategy. Thus, predicting overseas talent mobility is essential for formulating scientifically reasonable talent introduction policies, optimizing talent cultivation systems, and fostering international talent cooperation. In this study, we proposed a novel fractional-order grey model based on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm to forecast the movement of overseas talent, namely MGDFGM(1,1). Compared to the traditional grey model FGM(1,1), which utilizes the same fractional order at all time points, the proposed MGDFGM(1,1) model dynamically adjusts the fractional-order values based on the time point. This dynamic adjustment enables our model to better capture the changing trends in the data, thereby enhancing the model’s fitting capability. To validate the effectiveness of the MGDFGM(1,1) model, we primarily utilize Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the evaluation criteria for the prediction accuracy, as well as standard deviation (STD) as an indicator of the model stability. Furthermore, we perform experimental analysis to evaluate the predictive performance of the MGDFGM(1,1) model in comparison to NAÏVE, ARIMA, GM(1,1), FGM(1,1), LSSVR, MLP, and LSTM. The research findings demonstrate that the MGDFGM(1,1) model achieves a remarkably high level of prediction accuracy and stability for forecasting overseas talent mobility in China. The implications of this study offer valuable insights and assistance to government departments involved in overseas talent management.

The United Nations has promoted and supported the UNCTAD Creative Economy Programme since 2004 to help countries around the world understand how to promote economic development through creativity in industries. This research article aims to determine whether the creative economy will be the major engine to accelerate Thailand’s economic development in the coming decade or not, and what the major creative economy sectors are that must be prioritized or initiated and focused on. The data implemented in this research cover 2011–2018, which consist of creative economy sector income, the IO table, and the SAM table. The methodology utilized in this research was the ML model, the GREY model for predicting the growth rate of income from the major creative economy sectors contribute to Thailand’s economy between 2019–2025, and the CGE model. The study’s empirical findings show that the significant sectoral creative economy consists of fashion, advertising, Thai food, and cultural tourism, which need to be given more stimulus. Furthermore, the economies of Chiang Mai, and Thailand as a whole, would eventually be high-income economies if creative economy sectors were to be promoted and continuously supported by efficient policies. the economic growth of Thailand and Chiang Mai would eventually become high income whenever these economies allow creative economy sectors to be promoted or supported by efficient policies continuously.

As China stands at a critical juncture in its transition towards a low-carbon future, the precise prediction and analysis of provincial carbon emissions have emerged as paramount tasks. Focusing on forecasting in this intricate and vital domain, an updated grey multivariable convolution model is designed by employing the unified new-information-oriented accumulating generation operator (UNAGO) technique to process raw sequences. Equipped with UNAGO 's hyper-parameters that enable the independent scaling effects and prioritize new information, the newly-designed model offers high flexibility and adaptability for handling complex provincial carbon emissions. Subsequently, four different restricted carbon emission sequences are utilized as case studies for validation purposes, and the new model's performance is scrutinized against five contrasting methods across three prediction forecasting horizons. Comparative experimental results reveal the new model's superior level of accuracy in predicting carbon emissions across four different provinces, with MAPE values of <4 % and 10 % in the in-sample and out-of-sample periods, respectively. Furthermore, rigorous evaluations with Diebold-Mariano (DM) and Probability Density Analysis (PDA) tests confirm the model's robust and general forecasting capabilities. • Accumulating generation operators (AGOs) for data preprocessing are systematically introduced and analyzed. • A novel method incorporating the proposed AGOs is proposed to forecast carbon emissions. • The proposed AGO outperforms the other existing AGO methods significantly. • PSO has been selected for searching the hyper-parameters. • The new model has higher accuracy and robustness than various benchmarks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a sparse data analysis algorithm, ensuring a reasonable model structure is an important challenge for grey models to identify the control mechanism of the uncertain system from observational data. To improve the intelligence and adaptability of the model, this study presents a synchronized optimization strategy for data prioritization and model structure for discrete polynomial grey prediction model. The proposed polynomial grey model contains two hyper-parameters: memory factor parameter and structural parameter. The memory factor is introduced into the discrete model to reconstruct the objective function of structural parameter optimization, thereby avoiding the problem of information superposition. The structural parameter is used to enhance the adaptability of grey prediction model in uncertain data analysis tasks. By employing a recursive estimation approach, an adaptive strategy for estimating model hyper-parameters is proposed, which focuses on minimizing prediction errors within the in-sample data. Additionally, a comparison is made between the proposed improved polynomial grey model and existing polynomial grey models in terms of data information mining, estimation stability, and robustness against measurement noise. The proposed model is applied to the practical engineering application of wear prediction, further validating the effectiveness of the proposed approach in non-equidistant time series prediction tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing expansion of photovoltaic power generation leads to unpredictable fluctuations in electricity supply, which can potentially jeopardize the stability of the power grid and escalate the costs associated with grid imbalances. As a result, precise forecasts of photovoltaic power generation play a vital role in optimizing capacity deployment, enhancing consumption levels, improving planning strategies, and maintaining grid balance within systems characterized by significant penetration of solar energy. This paper proposes a structural adaptive grey seasonal model based on data reorganization. Solar photovoltaic power generation data typically exhibit seasonal fluctuations, which pose a challenge to existing prediction techniques. Therefore, this paper adopts the idea of data reorganization to eliminate the seasonal fluctuations of observations, and the adaptive accumulation operator can accurately simulate the change trend of the original data in different periods, overcoming the defect of insufficient adaptability of the traditional accumulation operator. Subsequently, the time trend items are incorporated into the model structure to identify the trend characteristics of system development, which can effectively explain the power generation trend of photovoltaic systems at different time periods and improve the prediction accuracy of the model. In addition, the compatibility and unbiased nature of the proposed model have been demonstrated to help us better perceive the model. The Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) is used to optimize the adaptive parameters of the model, endowing it with higher flexibility and stronger adaptability. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, three practical cases (namely quarterly solar power generation in the United States, Japan, and Germany) were compared with existing econometric techniques, artificial neural networks, and grey prediction methods. The experimental results show that the new model outperforms other benchmark models in both simulation and prediction performance, and enjoys high robustness. • A novel grey seasonal model with data reorganization is established. • The proposed model can grasp nonlinear and fluctuant in various datasets. • The robustness analysis of the novel model is established. • Comparative study shows that the novel model is superior to other models. • Relevant suggestions are put forward according to the prediction results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the pursuit of sustainable development, accurate renewable energy demand forecasting holds great significance for climate change mitigation and promoting sustainability. However, renewable energy forecasting has been consistently challenged by seasonality and nonlinearity. Identifying the periodic and nonlinear characteristics concealed within renewable energy sources accurately is still an unexplored problem. Consequently, an innovative nonlinear discrete seasonal grey model is proposed for renewable energy forecasting, which incorporates seasonal dummy variables and a power exponent term for handling the seasonality and nonlinear patterns in time series. Furthermore, an intelligent algorithm matching framework is proposed to augment the flexibility of the newly developed model. For practical purposes, the new methodology is contrasted against a range of benchmarks encompassing statistical, machine-learning, and traditional grey models in forecasting the quarterly total renewable energy consumption in the United States. The proposed model exhibits over 27% improvement rates over its counterparts, achieving the most superior predictive accuracies of 1.45%, 39.27, and 0.79 in MAPEP , RMSEP , and MASEP metrics, respectively. Furthermore, the probability density and sample size analyses are conducted to validate the robustness of the new model, confirming its adaptability and stability towards algorithm randomness and historical information volume. Consequently, the novel model is employed to forecast the short-to-long-terms renewable energy consumption in the U.S., showcasing an upward trend and seasonal fluctuations of the consumption for the forthcoming 24 quarters from 2023Q4 to 2029Q3. These insights can offer valuable implications to the stakeholders such as energy suppliers, utility managers, and policy advocates, highlighting actionable strategies for optimizing renewable energy consumption forecasting and aiding sustainable development initiatives. • An innovative nonlinear discrete seasonal grey model is proposed for renewable energy forecasting. • The optimum algorithm matching the novel model is determined from five alternatives. • The Monte Carlo Simulation and parameter sensitivity analysis advance the robustness. • PSO with the optimal parameter group has been selected for searching coefficients. • The new model possesses higher accuracy and robustness than various competitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure of energy production is constantly evolving, particularly in a low-carbon context, to align with the development of various industries. To pursue the global goal of carbon neutrality, it is essential to strike a balance between traditional energy and clean energy. Thus, it is of great practical significance to forecast different energy production effectively. Firstly, this paper proposes a novel local grey forecasting model to predict different energy production. Energy production has fluctuated in the past few years due to government policies. Secondly, the novel local grey forecasting model focuses on each year's production in the modeling process and uses a kernel function to measure the validity of the information. Meanwhile, different from other grey models, the dynamic model proposed makes it possible that there are no static parameters for the overall prediction. Then, the window width in the local model is determined using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. Furthermore, energy production prediction including traditional energy and clean energy production in total North America, Europe and Asia Pacific is conducted. Results show that the novel local grey model has satisfactory prediction accuracy compared with other models, whose MAPEs have controlled under 5% for different energy production. Finally, reasonable suggestions for energy production are proposed to meet various energy needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex environment of mine water is closely linked to the effect of the backfill body. The goal of this study was to establish a method with which to reduce carbon emissions from cementitious materials while addressing the large amount of unutilized solid waste, such as oil shale residue, which lies on the surface of the planet, and pollutes the environment. Oil shale residue, fly ash, slag and coal gangue were used to produce an oil shale residue-based all-solid waste paste backfill (OSGPB) to study the changes in strength and environmental impact with corrosion time under acid mine drainage conditions. The development of cracks was monitored using digital image correlation (DIC) technology. The corrosion mechanism of OSGPB was analysed using X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). This study revealed that in an acid mine drainage environment, the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) decreased by 38.58% and 15.66% after 24 d of wet dry cycling and complete immersion corrosion, respectively. A significant quantity of corrosive gypsum was produced in the OSGPB, which expanded the internal micropores and gradually formed cracks. This led to more severe internal structural damage during wet dry cycles. Changes in the UCS of the OSGPB over 60 d were predicted using established grey models. The leached concentrations of heavy metal ions met the groundwater quality standard (class III) after the OSGPB was completely immersed in acid mine drainage and subjected to wet dry corrosion cycles. OSGPB showed great potential as a green backfilling material for mines. [Display omitted] • Preparation of a new all solid waste backfill materials (OSGPB) based on oil shale residue without cement • Studied the corrosion mechanism of OSGPB in acid mine water and its impact on groundwater environment • Using DIC to monitor the development of OSGPB cracks • Predicting the UCS of corroded OSGPB using a grey prediction model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grey system theory uses differential equations to model small sample time series to predict the short-term development law of things in the future. Since the most classical GM(1, 1) model was proposed, many scholars have improved it and derived various grey models that can predict linear or nonlinear time series. However, the existing grey models are still not accurate enough for constructing background values and parameter estimation methods. In order to improve the accuracy and applicability of the grey model, a novel neural grey model with accumulated time delays is proposed in this paper. In this model, the whitening equation of the grey model is constructed by combining the long short-term memory network to add time-delay variables to the original grey model. Second, the neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) is used to train the model to determine the time delays, the time-delay weights, and the model parameters to obtain better predictions. Finally, the Euler method is used to get the final prediction series. The new model's performance is tested through experiments on energy consumption and CO2 emissions prediction. The results were compared with some grey models, support vector regression (SVR), and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA). It can be concluded that the new model has better generalization performance and higher prediction accuracy than the selected comparative models. • A novel time-delay neural grey model is proposed combined with LSTM networks. • The model determines the time-delay variables and parameters by network training. • The model outperforms part of the grey models, SVR and ARIMA in the case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coordinated development of the regional water-energy nexus is important for the rational utilization of resources. This study proposed an integrated assessment and prediction approach of the water-energy nexus at the provincial scale, focusing on Inner Mongolia, China as a case study. A comprehensive and objective water-energy nexus evaluation index system was constructed. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, which measures the coordination between water and energy, and the grey model (GM(1,1)), which is used to predict the trends of the water-energy nexus, were used to explore coordination now and in the future. The results showed that the coupling degree (CD) of the water-energy nexus in Inner Mongolia had remained high at above 0.9 from 2007 to 2019, which was a high-level coupling. The CCD of the water-energy nexus showed a steady increasing trend from 0.57 to 0.76 and will continue to increase in the coming years. This study recommends continuously increasing monitoring of water and energy and increased focus on the coordinated development of water and energy. The results of this study can act as a reference for the coordinated development of the provincial water-energy systems and can guide research approaches for studying the water-energy nexus. • An integrated assessment and prediction approach of water-energy nexus was proposed. • The coordination relationship between water and energy systems was discussed. • The coupling coordination degree ranged from barely to intermediate. • There was a linear increase in coupling coordination degree prediction. • Ecological water use and energy use in the tertiary should be increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that energy forecasts play an important role in guiding energy policy, economic development and technological progress. Therefore, based on the purpose of energy consumption and production forecasting, this paper proposes a novel structure adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli model, which is innovative in terms of both accumulated generating operator and model structure. In terms of accumulated generating operator, a new fractional order accumulated generating operator is proposed in this paper. The new accumulated generating operator has a different information priority by adjusting the values of the parameters. In terms of model structure, a novel discrete grey Bernoulli model is proposed in this paper. The novel model is well adapted to time series data containing nonlinear information, and can well mine and utilize the information contained in the original data. In addition, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm was chosen to optimize the model parameters based on algorithm comparison experiments. This enables the model to flexibly adapt to a variety of complex data and has the ability of structure adaptive. Moreover, this paper conducts comparative experiments between the novel model and eight other forecasting algorithms for time series data. The numerical results show that the novel model has better forecasting performance for the data of China's total energy consumption, China's total electricity generation and China's total domestic electricity consumption. In addition, for the model reliability problem caused by the optimization algorithm, the stability and accuracy of the model are verified by Monte Carlo simulation and probability density visualization analysis. Finally, the proposed model predicts the future development trend of energy consumption and production in China. • A novel structural adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli model is established. • The proposed model can grasp nonlinear and fluctuant in various datasets. • The robustness analysis of the novel model is established. • Comparative study shows that the novel model is superior to other models. • Relevant suggestions are put forward according to the prediction results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Online monitoring system was built and monitored weld bead size using OGM(1,N). • The OGM(1,N) was trained with small number of samples with zero training time. • Weld bead was controlled by the proposed methodology. • A suitable balance was found between process parameters and height of the weld bead. In the directed energy deposition process, online monitoring of weld bead geometry can give real-time information to researchers and manufacturers to understand and control the metal deposition layer by layer. In the current work, an optimization Grey model OGM(1,N)-based online monitoring system was built to monitor the height and depth of metal deposition in each layer. The OGM(1,N) needs fewer training samples with poor information. The training data was updated to improve accuracy in prediction by removing old data and introducing more recent data. The inputs to the OGM(1,N) include the welding time, current, absolute difference in current at regular time intervals (5 s) and arc force. An optimum set of input parameters was identified by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) for various parameter combinations for the most accurate weld bead height and depth prediction. The interaction of time, current, and arc force significantly affected the height and depth of weld beads. The predicted height and depth of weld beads using the time, current, and arc force showed RMSEs of 2.52 and 0.23, respectively, compared to experimental results. This methodology can assist manufacturers and researchers in understanding and achieving an appropriate balance between process parameters and weld bead height with no training time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific and accurate prediction of energy production is important for exploring energy alternative paths, adjusting energy structure and industrial layout in a targeted manner, and promoting strategic energy transformation. In this paper, a time-lagged logistic grey forecasting model with harvesting term is established by combining the Logistic model, which has the ability of historical recurrence and short- and medium-term forecasting ability, and the grey forecasting model, which has the characteristics of strong adaptability and small computational effort. The least squares method is used to estimate the parameters of the new model, and the mathematical method is used to calculate the time response equation of the new model, and the modeling steps and flow chart of the new model are obtained. Finally, the oil production data of a province in China is used as the validity analysis of the model, and the new model is compared with two classical grey prediction models, three optimized grey prediction models, and one other prediction model. Through the comparison of seven indicators, the results show that the new model is significantly better than other models. Based on the validity analysis results, the new model is applied to the energy production forecast of three typical provinces in China. The horizontal and vertical comparison shows that the model can effectively predict the three kinds of energy production, and can provide technical support for the strategy and measures to adjust the energy security structure and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the energy industry. • A novel model (HDLGM(1,1,τ)) is established by considering the time-lagged Logistic. • Logistic harvest items are introduced into the novel model. • Modeling short- and medium-term forecasting ability was Enhanced. • The proposed model has been effectively applied to energy production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The modified RSEI is more suitable for the evaluation of ecological quality in CYUA. • The ecological status of CYUA shows an improving trend and is better in western part. • Vegetation, climate and human activities are important in altering ecological quality. • The projections indicate that MRSEI of CYUA will continue to improve in 2025 and 2029. To promote the sustainable development of the karst region, investigating the spatial–temporal evolution of ecological quality and elucidating key influencing factors is significant. The study quantified the ecological quality of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA) from 2002 to 2021 using Google Earth Engine (GEE) and the Modified Remote Sensing Ecological Index (MRSEI) with soil erosion indicators. Additionally, the study analyzed MRSEI's spatial distribution, spatial–temporal transfer, and driving factors by integrating the Sen + Mann-Kendall trend test and the grey correlation degree. The grey prediction model GM (1,1) and CA-Markov model were employed to predict CYUA's future ecological condition in terms of MRSEI's mean value and spatial distribution of MRSEI rank. Results indicate that: (1) Greenness and humidity significantly enhanced the ecological environment, while dryness, heat, and soil erosion indicators had the opposite effect. The first principal component, with a mean contribution of 70.20 % across 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017, and 2021, indicated that MRSEI based on PC1 was suitable for evaluating CYUA's ecological quality. (2) Spatially, the western CYUA generally outperformed the eastern part in terms of ecological quality, with the moderate class dominating the ecological quantity. Temporally, CYUA's holistic ecological condition consistently improved between 2002 and 2021. (3) Regional height, climatic conditions, and human construction projects were key factors altering ecological quality, as evidenced by the top five MRSEI influencing factors: greenness, humidity, normalized difference impervious surface index, elevation, and average annual rainfall. (4) Forecast results suggest that areas classified as good or excellent are expected to exceed 30 % by 2029, indicating ongoing and future improvements in CYUA's ecological quality. This study serves as a reference for ecological protection and regional sustainability in karst region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate issues have been gaining international attention in recent years. As the largest developing country and the prime carbon emitter, the Chinese government has proposed a strategic 'double carbon' target for carbon emissions. To predict carbon emissions more accurately, clarify the future supply situation and optimise resource allocation, based on the grey M G M ( 1 , m , N | τ ) model, we introduced and applied the particle swarm algorithm to determine the time lag parameter τ and proposed a new M G M ( 1 , m , N | τ ) grey model. We give a detailed modelling procedure, including calculation steps and intelligent optimisation algorithms, by fully considering the effect of time lag. In this study, this new model is used to simulate and forecast China's carbon emissions from 2010 to 2019 and compare it with other traditional grey models and their improved time-lagged forms. The results show that the new model has significant advantages in prediction accuracy and validity, plus good prediction performance for carbon emissions, which can be extended to more macro and micro energy consumption prediction problems.