Search

New Hanover County, North Carolina, has been experiencing rapid population growth and is expected to continue this growth, leading to increased land use and development in the area. The county is also threatened by sea level rise (SLR) and its effects because of its coastal location and frequent occurrences of major storms and hurricanes. This study used a land change modeler to map the land cover change throughout the county over a period of 20 years, and predicted land cover distribution in the area in the years 2030 and 2050. Statistics revealed that the developed land in the area increased by 85 km2 between 2000 and 2010, and by 60 km2 between 2010 and 2020. Such land is predicted to increase by another 73 km2 by 2030, and 63 km2 by 2050. This increase in development is expected to occur mainly in the central area of the county and along the barrier islands. Modeling of SLR illustrated that the northwestern part of New Hanover County along the Cape Fear River, as well as the beach towns located on the barrier islands, are estimated be the most affected locations. Results indicate that sections of major highways throughout the county, including I-140 near downtown Wilmington and US-421 in Carolina Beach, may be inundated by SLR, which might delay residents during mandatory evacuations for emergency situations such as hurricanes. Some routes may be unusable, leading to traffic congestion on other routes, which may impede some residents from reaching safety before the emergency. Wrightsville Beach and Carolina Beach are estimated to have the highest levels of inundation, with 71.17% and 40.58% of their land being inundated under the most extreme SLR scenario of 3 m, respectively. The use of the present research approach may provide a practical, quick, and low-cost method in modeling rapidly growing urban areas along the eastern United States coastline and locating areas at potential risk of future SLR inundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite observations are indispensable for weather forecasting, climate change monitoring, and environmental studies. Understanding and quantifying errors and uncertainties associated with satellite observations are essential for hardware calibration, data assimilation, and developing environmental and climate data records. Satellite observation errors can be classified into four categories: measurement, observation operator, representativeness, and preprocessing errors. Current methods for diagnosing observation errors still yield large uncertainties due to these complex errors. When simulating satellite errors, empirical errors are usually used, which do not always accurately represent the truth. We address these challenges by developing an error inventory simulator, the Satellite Error Representation and Realization (SatERR). SatERR can simulate a wide range of observation errors, from instrument measurement errors to model assimilation errors. Most of these errors are based on physical models, including existing and newly developed algorithms. SatERR takes a bottom-up approach: errors are generated from root sources and forward propagate through radiance and science products. This is different from, but complementary to, the top-down approach of current diagnostics, which inversely solves unknown errors. The impact of different errors can be quantified and partitioned, and a ground-truth testbed can be produced to test and refine diagnostic methods. SatERR is a community error inventory, open-source on GitHub, which can be expanded and refined with input from engineers, scientists, and modelers. This debut version of SatERR is centered on microwave sensors, covering traditional large satellites and small satellites operated by NOAA, NASA, and EUMETSAT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]