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Abstract The time series of PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-1 images reveal inflation at the volcanic flank and contraction at the crater for approximately 5 months before the 2017 eruption of Shinmoe-dake volcano, Japan. While the observation of inflation at the volcano’s flank is ubiquitous, few studies have reported crater contraction preceding an eruption. The flank inflation stopped after the 2017 eruption, while the contraction at the crater continued until the 2018 eruption. We found that a pipe-shaped deformation source above sea level best fits the observation preceding the 2017 eruption. Suppose the flux of ejected materials constrains the conduit radius during the previous 2011 eruption. In that case, the amount of deformation of the pipe-shaped deformation source, whether open or closed at its top, is too large to be realistic. Although constraining the conduit radius from the eruption flux overestimates the pressure change of the pipe-shaped deformation source, water-saturated fractures along the volcanic conduit could extend the effective conduit radius of the pressure source. We propose one potential scenario for the mechanism of the crater contraction preceding volcanic eruptions based on the combination of compaction due to cooling by ambient groundwater and material withdrawal within the conduit. The groundwater inflows from the ambient aquifer through cracks in the porous conduit wall, which are generated by conduit expansion during the magma ascent. Decoupling from the conduit wall due to a decrease in volume of the material promotes material instability and crater contraction. The interaction between the groundwater and the magma triggers the 2017 eruption of Shinmoe-dake volcano, as previous studies have reported. Graphical Abstract

Abstract The multipath effect is a major Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) error source due to its environment-dependent characteristic, which complicates its mitigation process for the high-rate determination of displacements. For instance, Sidereal Filtering (SF) and Multipath Hemispherical Map (MHM) require the observations spanning at least one full cycle of satellite orbit repeat period (e.g., ten days for Galileo navigation satellite system (Galileo) to reproduce the satellite geometry against ground stations. As a consequence, the practicability of SF and MHM is limited due to potential station-surrounding changes over a long period. In this study, we used the overlap-frequency signals on Global Positioning System (GPS) L1/L5, Galileo E1/E5a, and BeiDou-3 Navigation Satellite System (BDS-3) B1C/B2a to construct an interoperable MHM (i.e., MHM_GEC) across constellations to mitigate multipath more efficiently. We thus used 31 days of 1-Hz GPS/Galileo/BDS-3 data at 21 stations in Europe to compare this overlap-frequency MHM with those GNSS-specific MHMs (i.e., MHM_G for GPS, MHM_E for Galileo, and MHM_C for BDS-3), as well as SF. It is confirmed that the multipath effects on overlap-frequency signals are of a high spatial consistency across all GNSS. The mean reduction rate of applying MHM_GEC to GPS, Galileo, and BDS-3 carrier-phase residuals is 25%, 31%, and 28.5%, respectively, which are up to 25 percentage points higher than those of MHM_G, MHM_E, and MHM _C. Furthermore, the MHM_GEC constructed using 5 to 6 days of data can improve the positioning precision by 40%, outperforming the MHM_E, MHM_C, and SF using 10 days of data. Therefore, the interoperable MHM_GEC is more efficient in mitigating multipath effects for high-precision GNSS positioning.

Abstract Magmas, especially mafic ones, usually intrude into the upper crust as dikes. The intruded dike is often arrested before reaching the surface to make an eruption. Many geophysical observations, including geodetic measurements, have documented dike intrusions and arrests. Also, many theoretical considerations and analog experiments explored the mechanics of dike propagation and arrest. However, insights gained from theoretical considerations, analog experiments, and geophysical observations have yet to be well reconciled. This study attempts to reconcile geodetic measurements with insights gained from theoretical considerations and analog experiments to investigate how to forecast whether an intruded dike results in an eruption or not. This study considers four causes of dike arrests: (1) solidification of the intruded magma, (2) insufficient volume of dike intrusion, (3) negative buoyancy acting on the intruded magma, and (4) stress perturbation near the dike tip by a large earthquake. Then, this study investigates the cause of dike arrests associated with the 1997 and 1998 seismic swarm off the Izu Peninsula, Japan, and the 2015 failed eruption of Sakurajima volcano, Japan, as an example. This study suggests that the dike intrusions associated with the 1997 and 1998 seismic swarm off the Izu Peninsula are caused by insufficient volume of the dike, the loss of buoyancy, or both. The failed eruption of the 2015 Sakurajima eruption is most likely by insufficient volume. To investigate the contribution of geodetic data in understanding the cause of dike arrests, it is essential to consider the characteristics of geodetic data. They are: (1) geodetic data constrain the intruded volume and the location relatively well, (2) geodetic data cannot constrain the geometry of the intruded dike very well, (3) an assumption of the host rock as homogeneous halfspace underestimates the volume of the intruded dike and estimates the depth of the dike shallower than the true value. These limitations indicate that we cannot fully understand the cause of dike arrests solely from geodetic data. Independent information gained from, for example, the location of dike-induced earthquakes, seismic structures, or density structure from gravity anomalies or muon radiography helps better understand the cause of dike arrests. Graphical Abstract

Abstract The February 2023 Turkey‐Syria Earthquake doublet ruptured multiple segments of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) Zone. Dominating seismicity focal mechanism shifted dramatically from strike‐slip to normal‐faulting after the doublet. To better understand this shift, here we derived a comprehensive 3D co‐seismic displacement field and performed the stress analysis. Abundant space geodetic data were used to generate high‐resolution 3D surface displacement, which provide tight constraints on fault geometry, slip distribution and stress field. Together with stress inversion from aftershock focal mechanisms, we show that the principal stress direction rotation in the region with the most normal‐faulting aftershocks is the staggering 29°. The induced heterogenous stress may explain the shift of the dominant focal mechanism toward normal faulting. We suggest that the extensional horsetail splay faults, likely formed through geologic time scale related to the releasing bend on the EAF, are the hosts of most of the normal faulting aftershocks.

The Sichuan basin (SCB) is situated at the southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau where widespread seismicity has occurred. In the past decades, seismic events occurred in and around SCB have been responsible for more than 100 thousand casualties. To quantify the present-day seismic hazard of this region, especially the densely populated Chengdu-Chongqing economic zone (CCEZ), we develop a probabilistic earthquake forecast model using strain rates derived from 187 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) horizontal velocities, of which 102 velocity vectors are first released. The second invariant of the strain rate tensor suggests that the Shimian County and its surroundings are exposed to the highest seismic hazard in and around SCB. The second most dangerous area is located between 103-105°E. The Chongqing area is the least dangerous. The principal strain rate axes interior of the Sichuan basin suggest that this region is experiencing broad-scale extension, which according to our knowledge, is first revealed by our dense GNSS network. The comparison between the cumulative histograms of the second invariant of geodetic strain rate and earthquake count indicates that the geodetic strain rates in this region can serve as a reliable predictor of M≥6 earthquake locations. Thus, we proceed to calculate the total seismic moment anticipated for the entire area within the next 30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]