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Chronic back pain (CBP) is a global health concern with significant societal and economic burden. While various predictors of back pain chronicity have been proposed, including demographic and psychosocial factors, neuroimaging studies have pointed to brain characteristics as predictors of CBP. However, large-scale, multisite validation of these predictors is currently lacking. In two independent longitudinal studies, we examined white matter diffusion imaging data and pain characteristics in patients with subacute back pain (SBP) over six- and 12-month periods. Diffusion data from individuals with CBP and healthy controls (HC) were analyzed for comparison. Whole-brain tract-based spatial statistics analyses revealed that a cluster in the right superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF) tract had larger fractional anisotropy (FA) values in patients who recovered (SBPr) compared to those with persistent pain (SBPp), and predicted changes in pain severity. The SLF FA values accurately classified patients at baseline and follow-up in a third publicly available dataset (Area under the Receiver Operating Curve ~ 0.70). Notably, patients who recovered had FA values larger than those of HC suggesting a potential role of SLF integrity in resilience to CBP. Structural connectivity-based models also classified SBPp and SBPr patients from the three data sets (validation accuracy 67%). Our results validate the right SLF as a robust predictor of CBP development, with potential for clinical translation. Cognitive and behavioral processes dependent on the right SLF, such as proprioception and visuospatial attention, should be analyzed in subacute stages as they could prove important for back pain chronicity.

During late adolescence, the brain undergoes ontogenic organization altering subcortical-cortical circuitry. This includes regions implicated in pain chronicity, and thus alterations in the adolescent ontogenic organization could predispose to pain chronicity in adulthood - however, evidence is lacking. Using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging from a large European longitudinal adolescent cohort and an adult cohort with and without chronic pain, we examined links between painful symptoms and brain connectivity. During late adolescence, thalamo-, caudate-, and red nucleus-cortical connectivity were positively and subthalamo-cortical connectivity negatively associated with painful symptoms. Thalamo-cortical connectivity, but also subthalamo-cortical connectivity, was increased in adults with chronic pain compared to healthy controls. Our results indicate a shared basis in basothalamo-cortical circuitries between adolescent painful symptomatology and adult pain chronicity, with the subthalamic pathway being differentially involved, potentially due to a hyperconnected thalamo-cortical pathway in chronic pain and ontogeny-driven organization. This can inform neuromodulation-based prevention and early intervention., Competing Interests: Dr Banaschewski served in an advisory or consultancy role for Lundbeck, Medice, Neurim Pharmaceuticals, Oberberg GmbH, Shire. He received conference support or speaker’s fee by Lilly, Medice, Novartis and Shire. He has been involved in clinical trials conducted by Shire & Viforpharma. He received royalties from Hogrefe, Kohlhammer, CIP Medien, Oxford University Press. The present work is unrelated to the above grants and relationships. Dr Barker has received honoraria from General Electric Healthcare for teaching on scanner programming courses. Dr Poustka served in an advisory or consultancy role for Roche and Viforpharm and received speaker’s fee by Shire. She received royalties from Hogrefe, Kohlhammer and Schattauer. The present work is unrelated to the above grants and relationships. The other authors report no biomedical financial interests or potential conflicts of interest., (© 2024 The Authors.)