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We study the effect of paternity leave on early child development. We collect sur-vey data on 5,000 children under age six in Spain and exploit several extensions of paternity leave that took place between 2017 and 2021. We follow a differences-in-discontinuities research design, based on the date of birth of each child and using cohorts born in non-reform years as controls. We show that the extensions led to significant increases in the length of leave taken by fathers, without affecting that of mothers, thus increasing parental time at home in the first year after birth. Eligibility for four additional weeks of paternity leave led to a significant 12 percentage-point increase in the fraction of children with developmental delays. We provide evidence for two potential mechanisms. First, children exposed to longer paternity leave spend less time alone with their mother, and more time with their father, during their first year of life. Second, treated children use less formal childcare. Our results suggest that paternity leave replaces higher-quality modes of early care. We conclude that the effects of parental leave policies on children depend crucially on the quality of parental versus counterfactual modes of childcare. [Funding for this report was provided by the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) and the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities.]

We study the effect of educational attainment on family formation using regression discontinuity designs generated by centralized admissions processes to both secondary and tertiary education in Finland. Admission to further education at either margin does not increase the likelihood that men form families. In contrast, women admitted to further education are more likely to both live with a partner and have children. We then pre-register and test two hypotheses which could explain each set of results using survey data. These suggest that the positive association between men's education and family formation observed in the data is driven by selection. For women, our estimates are consistent with the idea that, as increased returns to social skills shift the burden of child development from schools to parents and particularly mothers, education can make women more attractive as potential partners. [Funding for this report was provided by The Strategic Research Council, the Research Council of Finland, and Palkansaajasäätiö.]

LSST will provide galaxy cluster catalogs up to z$\sim$1 that can be used to constrain cosmological models once their selection function is well-understood. We have applied the deep convolutional network YOLO for CLuster detection (YOLO-CL) to LSST simulations from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration Data Challenge 2 (DC2), and characterized the LSST YOLO-CL cluster selection function. We have trained and validated the network on images from a hybrid sample of (1) clusters observed in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and detected with the red-sequence Matched-filter Probabilistic Percolation, and (2) simulated DC2 dark matter haloes with masses $M_{200c} > 10^{14} M_{\odot}$. We quantify the completeness and purity of the YOLO-CL cluster catalog with respect to DC2 haloes with $M_{200c} > 10^{14} M_{\odot}$. The YOLO-CL cluster catalog is 100% and 94% complete for halo mass $M_{200c} > 10^{14.6} M_{\odot}$ at $0.2 10^{14} M_{\odot}$ and redshift $z \lesssim 1$, respectively, with only 6% false positive detections. All the false positive detections are dark matter haloes with $ 10^{13.4} M_{\odot} \lesssim M_{200c} \lesssim 10^{14} M_{\odot}$. The YOLO-CL selection function is almost flat with respect to the halo mass at $0.2 \lesssim z \lesssim 0.9$. The overall performance of YOLO-CL is comparable or better than other cluster detection methods used for current and future optical and infrared surveys. YOLO-CL shows better completeness for low mass clusters when compared to current detections in surveys using the Sunyaev Zel'dovich effect, and detects clusters at higher redshifts than X-ray-based catalogs. The strong advantage of YOLO-CL over traditional galaxy cluster detection techniques is that it works directly on images and does not require photometric and photometric redshift catalogs, nor does it need to mask stellar sources and artifacts., Comment: Submitted to A&A, 14 pages, 6 figures

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry dataset degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-$z$ estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i<25.3$ for 10 year LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd $i$-band depth for 1-year (Y1), 3-year (Y3), and 5-year (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10-40\%$ at extreme depth values. Based on these results and using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times2$pt data vector in harmonic space. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, causing significant deviations at large scales if not corrected for, due to the depth-dependent number density variations. For galaxy-shear and shear-shear power spectra, we find little impact given the expected LSST Y3 noise., Comment: 26 pages, 20 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

One of the main obstacles for the signal extraction of the three point correlation function using photometric surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), will be the prohibitive computation time required for dealing with a vast quantity of sources. Brute force algorithms, which naively scales as $\mathcal{O}(N^3)$ with the number of objects, can be further improved with tree methods but not enough to deal with large scale correlations of Rubin's data. However, a harmonic basis decomposition of these higher order statistics reduces the time dramatically, to scale as a two-point correlation function with the number of objects, so that the signal can be extracted in a reasonable amount of time. In this work, we aim to develop the framework to use these expansions within the Limber approximation for scalar (or spin-0) fields, such as galaxy counts, weak lensing convergence or aperture masses. We develop an estimator to extract the signal from catalogs and different phenomenological and theoretical models for its description. The latter includes halo model and standard perturbation theory, to which we add a simple effective field theory prescription based on the short range of non-locality of cosmic fields, significantly improving the agreement with simulated data. In parallel to the modeling of the signal, we develop a code that can efficiently calculate three points correlations of more than 200 million data points (a full sky simulation with Nside=4096) in $\sim$40 minutes on a single high-performance computing node, enabling a feasible analysis for the upcoming LSST data., Comment: 31 pages, 10 figures

Due to the unprecedented depth of the upcoming ground-based Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, approximately two-thirds of the galaxies are likely to be affected by blending - the overlap of physically separated galaxies in images. Thus, extracting reliable shapes and photometry from individual objects will be limited by our ability to correct blending and control any residual systematic effect. Deblending algorithms tackle this issue by reconstructing the isolated components from a blended scene, but the most commonly used algorithms often fail to model complex realistic galaxy morphologies. As part of an effort to address this major challenge, we present MADNESS, which takes a data-driven approach and combines pixel-level multi-band information to learn complex priors for obtaining the maximum a posteriori solution of deblending. MADNESS is based on deep neural network architectures such as variational auto-encoders and normalizing flows. The variational auto-encoder reduces the high-dimensional pixel space into a lower-dimensional space, while the normalizing flow models a data-driven prior in this latent space. Using a simulated test dataset with galaxy models for a 10-year LSST survey and a galaxy density ranging from 48 to 80 galaxies per arcmin2 we characterize the aperture-photometry g-r color, structural similarity index, and pixel cosine similarity of the galaxies reconstructed by MADNESS. We compare our results against state-of-the-art deblenders including scarlet. With the r-band of LSST as an example, we show that MADNESS performs better than in all the metrics. For instance, the average absolute value of relative flux residual in the r-band for MADNESS is approximately 29% lower than that of scarlet. The code is publicly available on GitHub., Comment: 20 pages, 19 figures, submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysics

Noise bias is a significant source of systematic error in weak gravitational lensing measurements that must be corrected to satisfy the stringent standards of modern imaging surveys in the era of precision cosmology. This paper reviews the analytical noise bias correction method and provides analytical derivations demonstrating that we can recover shear to its second order using the 'renoising' noise bias correction approach introduced by Metacalibration. We implement this analytical noise bias correction within the AnaCal shear estimation framework and propose several enhancements to the noise bias correction algorithm. We evaluate the improved AnaCal using simulations designed to replicate Rubin LSST imaging data. These simulations feature semi-realistic galaxies and stars, complete with representative distributions of magnitudes and Galactic spatial density. We conduct tests under various observational challenges, including cosmic rays, defective CCD columns, bright star saturation, bleed trails, and spatially variable point spread functions. Our results indicate a multiplicative bias in weak lensing shear recovery of less than a few tenths of a percent, meeting LSST DESC requirements without requiring calibration from external image simulations. Additionally, our algorithm achieves rapid processing, handling one galaxy in less than a millisecond., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Upcoming wide field surveys will have many overlapping epochs of the same region of sky. The conventional wisdom is that in order to reduce the errors sufficiently for systematics-limited measurements, like weak lensing, we must do simultaneous fitting of all the epochs. Using current algorithms this will require a significant amount of computing time and effort. In this paper, we revisit the potential of using coadds for shear measurements. We show on a set of image simulations that the multiplicative shear bias can be constrained below the 0.1% level on coadds, which is sufficient for future lensing surveys. We see no significant differences between simultaneous fitting and coadded approaches for two independent shear codes: Metacalibration and BFD. One caveat of our approach is the assumption of a principled coadd, i.e. the PSF is mathematically well-defined for all the input images. This requires us to reject CCD images that do not fully cover the coadd region. We estimate that the number of epochs that must be rejected for a survey like LSST is on the order of 20%, resulting in a small loss in depth of less than 0.1 magnitudes. We also put forward a cell-based coaddition scheme that meets the above requirements for unbiased weak lensing shear estimation in the context of LSST.

We present a novel framework for jointly modelling the weak lensing source galaxy redshift distribution and the intrinsic alignment of galaxies via a shared luminosity function (LF). Considering this framework within the context of a Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Year 1 and Year 10 cosmic shear analysis, we first demonstrate the substantial impact of the LF on both source galaxy redshift distributions and the intrinsic alignment contamination. We establish how the individual parameters of a Schechter LF model impact the redshift distribution of a magnitude-limited sample, and we demonstrate the effect of marginalising over the LF parameters as incorporated in the intrinsic alignment modelling of a standard cosmic shear analysis set-up. We forecast the impact of our joint modelling framework on cosmological parameter constraints. Our preliminary results are promising, indicating that this framework can yield cosmological constraints consistent with those expected from standard analyses, enhanced by the flexibility of not fixing LF parameters. We plan to further validate these findings with comprehensive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to robustly quantify bias avoidance and underscore the framework's efficacy. Taking advantage of our forecasting results and the parameter degeneracies, we identify the specific impact of the shape of the LF of source galaxies on the cosmic shear data vector. We also discuss the potential of this method in providing a way to model generic selection functions in redshift distribution estimation, as well as its possibilities for extension to a 3x2pt analysis, particularly with respect to incorporating galaxy bias in this luminosity-function-based framework. Although we consider the context of LSST cosmic shear in this work, the proposed joint modelling framework is generically applicable to weak lensing surveys., Comment: 19 pages, 16 figures, 3 tables; v2: added LSST DESC to arxiv author list

Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of the redshift posteriors produced by photometric redshift (photo-z) estimators is vital for enabling precision cosmology and extragalactic astrophysics with modern wide-field photometric surveys. Evaluating photo-z posteriors on a per-galaxy basis is difficult, however, as real galaxies have a true redshift but not a true redshift posterior. We introduce PZFlow, a Python package for the probabilistic forward modeling of galaxy catalogs with normalizing flows. For catalogs simulated with PZFlow, there is a natural notion of "true" redshift posteriors that can be used for photo-z validation. We use PZFlow to simulate a photometric galaxy catalog where each galaxy has a redshift, noisy photometry, shape information, and a true redshift posterior. We also demonstrate the use of an ensemble of normalizing flows for photo-z estimation. We discuss how PZFlow will be used to validate the photo-z estimation pipeline of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), and the wider applicability of PZFlow for statistical modeling of any tabular data., Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, submitted to AJ

Differential Chromatic Refraction (DCR) is caused by the wavelength dependence of our atmosphere's refractive index, which shifts the apparent positions of stars and galaxies and distorts their shapes depending on their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). While this effect is typically mitigated and corrected for in imaging observations, we investigate how DCR can instead be used to our advantage to infer the redshifts of supernovae from multi-band, time-series imaging data. We simulate Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the proposed Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Deep Drilling Field (DDF), and evaluate astrometric redshifts. We find that the redshift accuracy improves dramatically with the statistical quality of the astrometric measurements as well as with the accuracy of the astrometric solution. For a conservative choice of a 5-mas systematic uncertainty floor, we find that our redshift estimation is accurate at $z < 0.6$. We then combine our astrometric redshifts with both host galaxy photometric redshifts and supernovae photometric (light-curve) redshifts and show that this considerably improves the overall redshift estimates. These astrometric redshifts will be valuable especially since Rubin will discover a vast number of supernovae for which we will not be able to obtain spectroscopic redshifts., Comment: 28 pages, 24 figures, submitted to The Astrophysical Journal

In this paper we report near-infrared observations of the classical T Tauri star TW Hya with the SPIRou high-resolution spectropolarimeter and velocimeter at the 3.6-m Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. By applying Least-Squares Deconvolution (LSD) to our circularly polarized spectra, we derived longitudinal fields that vary from year to year from -200 to +100 G, and exhibit low-level modulation on the 3.6 d rotation period of TW Hya, despite the star being viewed almost pole-on. We then used Zeeman-Doppler Imaging to invert our sets of unpolarized and circularly-polarized LSD profiles into brightness and magnetic maps of TW Hya in all 4 seasons, and obtain that the large-scale field of this T Tauri star mainly consists of a 1.0-1.2 kG dipole tilted at about 20{\deg} to the rotation axis, whereas the small-scale field reaches strengths of up to 3-4 kG. We find that the large-scale field is strong enough to allow TW Hya to accrete material from the disc on the polar regions at the stellar surface in a more or less geometrically stable accretion pattern, but not to succeed in spinning down the star. We also report the discovery of a radial velocity signal of semi-amplitude $11.1^{+3.3}_{-2.6}$ m/s (detected at 4.3$\sigma$ at a period of 8.3 d in the spectrum of TW Hya, whose origin may be attributed to either a non-axisymmetric density structure in the inner accretion disc, or to a $0.55^{+0.17}_{-0.13}$ Jupiter mass candidate close-in planet (if orbiting in the disc plane), at an orbital distance of $0.075\pm0.001$ au., Comment: MNRAS, in press (23 pages, 16 figures, 6 tables)

The nearby elliptical galaxy M87 contains one of the only two supermassive black holes whose emission surrounding the event horizon has been imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). In 2018, more than two dozen multi-wavelength (MWL) facilities (from radio to gamma-ray energies) took part in the second M87 EHT campaign. The goal of this extensive MWL campaign was to better understand the physics of the accreting black hole M87*, the relationship between the inflow and inner jets, and the high-energy particle acceleration. Understanding the complex astrophysics is also a necessary first step towards performing further tests of general relativity. The MWL campaign took place in April 2018, overlapping with the EHT M87* observations. We present a new, contemporaneous spectral energy distribution (SED) ranging from radio to very high energy (VHE) gamma-rays, as well as details of the individual observations and light curves. We also conduct phenomenological modelling to investigate the basic source properties. We present the first VHE gamma-ray flare from M87 detected since 2010. The flux above 350 GeV has more than doubled within a period of about 36 hours. We find that the X-ray flux is enhanced by about a factor of two compared to 2017, while the radio and millimetre core fluxes are consistent between 2017 and 2018. We detect evidence for a monotonically increasing jet position angle that corresponds to variations in the bright spot of the EHT image. Our results show the value of continued MWL monitoring together with precision imaging for addressing the origins of high-energy particle acceleration. While we cannot currently pinpoint the precise location where such acceleration takes place, the new VHE gamma-ray flare already presents a challenge to simple one-zone leptonic emission model approaches, and emphasises the need for combined image and spectral modelling., Comment: 46 pages, 23 figures, submitted to Astronomy & Astrophysics

Validating modeling choices through simulated analyses and quantifying the impact of different systematic effects will form a major computational bottleneck in the preparation for 3$\times$2 analysis with Stage-IV surveys such as Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We can significantly reduce the computational requirements by using machine learning based emulators, which allow us to run fast inference while maintaining the full realism of the data analysis pipeline. In this paper, we use such an emulator to run simulated 3$\times$2 (cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering) analyses for mock LSST-Y1/Y3/Y6/Y10 surveys and study the impact of various systematic effects (galaxy bias, intrinsic alignment, baryonic physics, shear calibration and photo-$z$ uncertainties). Closely following the DESC Science Requirement Document (with several updates) our main findings are: {\it a)} The largest contribution to the `systematic error budget' of LSST 3$\times$2 analysis comes from galaxy bias uncertainties, while the contribution of baryonic and shear calibration uncertainties are significantly less important. {\it b)} Tighter constraints on intrinsic alignment and photo-$z$ parameters can improve cosmological constraints noticeably, which illustrates synergies of LSST and spectroscopic surveys. {\it c)} The scale cuts adopted in the DESC SRD may be too conservative and pushing to smaller scales can increase cosmological information significantly. {\it d)} We investigate the impact of photo-$z$ outliers on 3$\times$2 pt analysis and find that we need to determine the outlier fraction to within $5-10\%$ accuracy to ensure robust cosmological analysis. We caution that these findings depend on analysis choices (parameterizations, priors, scale cuts) and can change for different settings., Comment: 16 pages, 10 Figures, To be submitted to PRD. Comments welcome

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize Time Domain Astronomy by detecting millions of transients. In particular, it is expected to increment the number of type Ia supernovae (SNIa) of a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to z~1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of SNIa properties and rates. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SNIa rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SNIa progenitors. We use simulated data from the DESC Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 (DP0) to measure the SNIa rate on a 15 deg2 region of the Wide-Fast-Deep area. We select a sample of SN candidates detected on difference images, associate them to the host galaxy, and retrieve their photometric redshifts (z-phot). Then, we test different light curves classification methods, with and without redshift priors. We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. We measure the SNIa rate analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to z-phot, host galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We found a 17% average lost fraction of SNIa with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the bias is due to the uncertainty on the z-phot alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), it results to be the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SNIa rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help using the rate to discriminate different progenitor models., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A