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Summary Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]