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Adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) affect a large proportion of pregnancies and represent an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Yet the pathophysiology of APOs is poorly understood, limiting our ability to prevent and treat these conditions. To search for genetic markers of maternal risk for four APOs, we performed multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for pregnancy loss, gestational length, gestational diabetes, and preeclampsia. We clustered participants by their genetic ancestry and focused our analyses on three sub-cohorts with the largest sample sizes: European, African, and Admixed American. Association tests were carried out separately for each sub-cohort and then meta-analyzed together. Two novel loci were significantly associated with an increased risk of pregnancy loss: a cluster of SNPs located downstream of the TRMU gene (top SNP: rs142795512), and the SNP rs62021480 near RGMA. In the GWAS of gestational length we identified two new variants, rs2550487 and rs58548906 near WFDC1 and AC005052.1, respectively. Lastly, three new loci were significantly associated with gestational diabetes (top SNPs: rs72956265, rs10890563, rs79596863), located on or near ZBTB20, GUCY1A2, and RPL7P20, respectively. Fourteen loci previously correlated with preterm birth, gestational diabetes, and preeclampsia were found to be associated with these outcomes as well.

BackgroundThe Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) aims to advance the state-of-the-art for computational prediction of genetic variant impact, particularly where relevant to disease. The five complete editions of the CAGI community experiment comprised 50 challenges, in which participants made blind predictions of phenotypes from genetic data, and these were evaluated by independent assessors.ResultsPerformance was particularly strong for clinical pathogenic variants, including some difficult-to-diagnose cases, and extends to interpretation of cancer-related variants. Missense variant interpretation methods were able to estimate biochemical effects with increasing accuracy. Assessment of methods for regulatory variants and complex trait disease risk was less definitive and indicates performance potentially suitable for auxiliary use in the clinic.ConclusionsResults show that while current methods are imperfect, they have major utility for research and clinical applications. Emerging methods and increasingly large, robust datasets for training and assessment promise further progress ahead.

Abstract Adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) affect a large proportion of pregnancies and represent an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Yet the pathophysiology of APOs is poorly understood, limiting our ability to prevent and treat these conditions. To search for genetic markers of maternal risk for four APOs, we performed multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for pregnancy loss, gestational length, gestational diabetes, and preeclampsia. We clustered participants by their genetic ancestry and focused our analyses on three sub-cohorts with the largest sample sizes: European, African, and Admixed American. Association tests were carried out separately for each sub-cohort and then meta-analyzed together. Two novel loci were significantly associated with an increased risk of pregnancy loss: a cluster of SNPs located downstream of the TRMU gene (top SNP: rs142795512), and the SNP rs62021480 near RGMA. In the GWAS of gestational length we identified two new variants, rs2550487 and rs58548906 near WFDC1 and AC005052.1, respectively. Lastly, three new loci were significantly associated with gestational diabetes (top SNPs: rs72956265, rs10890563, rs79596863), located on or near ZBTB20, GUCY1A2, and RPL7P20, respectively. Fourteen loci previously correlated with preterm birth, gestational diabetes, and preeclampsia were found to be associated with these outcomes as well.

Abstract Background A major obstacle faced by families with rare diseases is obtaining a genetic diagnosis. The average "diagnostic odyssey" lasts over five years and causal variants are identified in under 50%, even when capturing variants genome-wide. To aid in the interpretation and prioritization of the vast number of variants detected, computational methods are proliferating. Knowing which tools are most effective remains unclear. To evaluate the performance of computational methods, and to encourage innovation in method development, we designed a Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) community challenge to place variant prioritization models head-to-head in a real-life clinical diagnostic setting. Methods We utilized genome sequencing (GS) data from families sequenced in the Rare Genomes Project (RGP), a direct-to-participant research study on the utility of GS for rare disease diagnosis and gene discovery. Challenge predictors were provided with a dataset of variant calls and phenotype terms from 175 RGP individuals (65 families), including 35 solved training set families with causal variants specified, and 30 unlabeled test set families (14 solved, 16 unsolved). We tasked teams to identify causal variants in as many families as possible. Predictors submitted variant predictions with estimated probability of causal relationship (EPCR) values. Model performance was determined by two metrics, a weighted score based on the rank position of causal variants, and the maximum F-measure, based on precision and recall of causal variants across all EPCR values. Results Sixteen teams submitted predictions from 52 models, some with manual review incorporated. Top performers recalled causal variants in up to 13 of 14 solved families within the top 5 ranked variants. Newly discovered diagnostic variants were returned to two previously unsolved families following confirmatory RNA sequencing, and two novel disease gene candidates were entered into Matchmaker Exchange. In one example, RNA sequencing demonstrated aberrant splicing due to a deep intronic indel in ASNS, identified in trans with a frameshift variant in an unsolved proband with phenotypes consistent with asparagine synthetase deficiency. Conclusions Model methodology and performance was highly variable. Models weighing call quality, allele frequency, predicted deleteriousness, segregation, and phenotype were effective in identifying causal variants, and models open to phenotype expansion and non-coding variants were able to capture more difficult diagnoses and discover new diagnoses. Overall, computational models can significantly aid variant prioritization. For use in diagnostics, detailed review and conservative assessment of prioritized variants against established criteria is needed.

Purpose: We previously developed an approach to calibrate computational tools for clinical variant classification, updating recommendations for the reliable use of variant impact predictors to provide evidence strength up to Strong . A new generation of tools using distinctive approaches have since been released, and these methods must be independently calibrated for clinical application., Method: Using our local posterior probability-based calibration and our established data set of ClinVar pathogenic and benign variants, we determined the strength of evidence provided by three new tools (AlphaMissense, ESM1b, VARITY) and calibrated scores meeting each evidence strength., Results: All three tools reached the Strong level of evidence for variant pathogenicity and Moderate for benignity, though sometimes for few variants. Compared to previously recommended tools, these yielded at best only modest improvements in the tradeoffs of evidence strength and false positive predictions., Conclusion: At calibrated thresholds, three new computational predictors provided evidence for variant pathogenicity at similar strength to the four previously recommended predictors (and comparable with functional assays for some variants). This calibration broadens the scope of computational tools for application in clinical variant classification. Their new approaches offer promise for future advancement of the field., Competing Interests: CONFLICT OF INTEREST L.G.B. is a member of the Illumina Medical Ethics Committee, receives research support from Merck, Inc., and royalties from Wolters-Kluwer. V.P. and P.R. participated in the development of some of the tools assessed in this study. A.O’D.L. receives research support from PacBio and is a consultant for Addition Therapeutics and on the SAB for Congenica Inc.

Critical evaluation of computational tools for predicting variant effects is important considering their increased use in disease diagnosis and driving molecular discoveries. In the sixth edition of the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenge, a dataset of 28 STK11 rare variants (27 missense, 1 single amino acid deletion), identified in primary non-small cell lung cancer biopsies, was experimentally assayed to characterize computational methods from four participating teams and five publicly available tools. Predictors demonstrated a high level of performance on key evaluation metrics, measuring correlation with the assay outputs and separating loss-of-function (LoF) variants from wildtype-like (WT-like) variants. The best participant model, 3Cnet, performed competitively with well-known tools. Unique to this challenge was that the functional data was generated with both biological and technical replicates, thus allowing the assessors to realistically establish maximum predictive performance based on experimental variability. Three out of the five publicly available tools and 3Cnet approached the performance of the assay replicates in separating LoF variants from WT-like variants. Surprisingly, REVEL, an often-used model, achieved a comparable correlation with the real-valued assay output as that seen for the experimental replicates. Performing variant interpretation by combining the new functional evidence with computational and population data evidence led to 16 new variants receiving a clinically actionable classification of likely pathogenic (LP) or likely benign (LB). Overall, the STK11 challenge highlights the utility of variant effect predictors in biomedical sciences and provides encouraging results for driving research in the field of computational genome interpretation., Competing Interests: • Conflict of interest/Competing interests None

Motivation: Cross-linking tandem mass spectrometry (XL-MS/MS) is an established analytical platform used to determine distance constraints between residues within a protein or from physically interacting proteins, thus improving our understanding of protein structure and function. To aid biological discovery with XL-MS/MS, it is essential that pairs of chemically linked peptides be accurately identified, a process that requires: (i) database search, that creates a ranked list of candidate peptide pairs for each experimental spectrum and (ii) false discovery rate (FDR) estimation, that determines the probability of a false match in a group of top-ranked peptide pairs with scores above a given threshold. Currently, the only available FDR estimation mechanism in XL-MS/MS is the target-decoy approach (TDA). However, despite its simplicity, TDA has both theoretical and practical limitations that impact the estimation accuracy and increase run time over potential decoy-free approaches (DFAs)., Results: We introduce a novel decoy-free framework for FDR estimation in XL-MS/MS. Our approach relies on multi-sample mixtures of skew normal distributions, where the latent components correspond to the scores of correct peptide pairs (both peptides identified correctly), partially incorrect peptide pairs (one peptide identified correctly, the other incorrectly), and incorrect peptide pairs (both peptides identified incorrectly). To learn these components, we exploit the score distributions of first- and second-ranked peptide-spectrum matches for each experimental spectrum and subsequently estimate FDR using a novel expectation-maximization algorithm with constraints. We evaluate the method on ten datasets and provide evidence that the proposed DFA is theoretically sound and a viable alternative to TDA owing to its good performance in terms of accuracy, variance of estimation, and run time., Availability and Implementation: https://github.com/shawn-peng/xlms., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Continued advances in variant effect prediction are necessary to demonstrate the ability of machine learning methods to accurately determine the clinical impact of variants of unknown significance (VUS). Towards this goal, the ARSA Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenge was designed to characterize progress by utilizing 219 experimentally assayed missense VUS in the Arylsulfatase A ( ARSA ) gene to assess the performance of community-submitted predictions of variant functional effects. The challenge involved 15 teams, and evaluated additional predictions from established and recently released models. Notably, a model developed by participants of a genetics and coding bootcamp, trained with standard machine-learning tools in Python, demonstrated superior performance among submissions. Furthermore, the study observed that state-of-the-art deep learning methods provided small but statistically significant improvement in predictive performance compared to less elaborate techniques. These findings underscore the utility of variant effect prediction, and the potential for models trained with modest resources to accurately classify VUS in genetic and clinical research., Competing Interests: Declarations Conflict of interest/Competing interests Wyatt T. Clark, Marena Trinidad, Courtney Astore, Teague Sterling, and Sufyan Kazi are former employees and potential shareholders of BioMarin Pharmaceutical. Rocio Acuna-Hidalgo is a current employee and shareholder of Nostos Genomics GmbH. Andrea Grafmüller and Laura T. Jiménez Barrón are former employees of Nostos Genomics GmbH.

Regular, systematic, and independent assessment of computational tools used to predict the pathogenicity of missense variants is necessary to evaluate their clinical and research utility and suggest directions for future improvement. Here, as part of the sixth edition of the Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) challenge, we assess missense variant effect predictors (or variant impact predictors) on an evaluation dataset of rare missense variants from disease-relevant databases. Our assessment evaluates predictors submitted to the CAGI6 Annotate-All-Missense challenge, predictors commonly used by the clinical genetics community, and recently developed deep learning methods for variant effect prediction. To explore a variety of settings that are relevant for different clinical and research applications, we assess performance within different subsets of the evaluation data and within high-specificity and high-sensitivity regimes. We find strong performance of many predictors across multiple settings. Meta-predictors tend to outperform their constituent individual predictors; however, several individual predictors have performance similar to that of commonly used meta-predictors. The relative performance of predictors differs in high-specificity and high-sensitivity regimes, suggesting that different methods may be best suited to different use cases. We also characterize two potential sources of bias. Predictors that incorporate allele frequency as a predictive feature tend to have reduced performance when distinguishing pathogenic variants from very rare benign variants, and predictors supervised on pathogenicity labels from curated variant databases often learn label imbalances within genes. Overall, we find notable advances over the oldest and most cited missense variant effect predictors and continued improvements among the most recently developed tools, and the CAGI Annotate-All-Missense challenge (also termed the Missense Marathon) will continue to assess state-of-the-art methods as the field progresses. Together, our results help illuminate the current clinical and research utility of missense variant effect predictors and identify potential areas for future development.

We present CAFA-evaluator, a powerful Python program designed to evaluate the performance of prediction methods on targets with hierarchical concept dependencies. It generalizes multi-label evaluation to modern ontologies where the prediction targets are drawn from a directed acyclic graph and achieves high efficiency by leveraging matrix computation and topological sorting. The program requirements include a small number of standard Python libraries, making CAFA-evaluator easy to maintain. The code replicates the Critical Assessment of protein Function Annotation (CAFA) benchmarking, which evaluates predictions of the consistent subgraphs in Gene Ontology. Owing to its reliability and accuracy, the organizers have selected CAFA-evaluator as the official CAFA evaluation software., Availability and Implementation: https://pypi.org/project/cafaeval., Competing Interests: None declared., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)