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Objective: To estimate preoperative risk of postoperative infections using structured electronic health record (EHR) data. Background: Surveillance and reporting of postoperative infections is primarily done through costly, labor-intensive manual chart reviews on a small sample of patients. Automated methods using statistical models applied to postoperative EHR data have shown promise to augment manual review as they can cover all operations in a timely manner. However, there are no specific models for risk-adjusting infectious complication rates using EHR data. Methods: Preoperative EHR data from 30,639 patients (2013–2019) were linked to the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program preoperative data and postoperative infection outcomes data from 5 hospitals in the University of Colorado Health System. EHR data included diagnoses, procedures, operative variables, patient characteristics, and medications. Lasso and the knockoff filter were used to perform controlled variable selection. Outcomes included surgical site infection, urinary tract infection, sepsis/septic shock, and pneumonia up to 30 days postoperatively. Results: Among >15,000 candidate predictors, 7 were chosen for the surgical site infection model and 6 for each of the urinary tract infection, sepsis, and pneumonia models. Important variables included preoperative presence of the specific outcome, wound classification, comorbidities, and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each model ranged from 0.73 to 0.89. Conclusions: Parsimonious preoperative models for predicting postoperative infection risk using EHR data were developed and showed comparable performance to existing American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk models that use manual chart review. These models can be used to estimate risk-adjusted postoperative infection rates applied to large volumes of EHR data in a timely manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) present a complex clinical landscape, where precise preoperative risk assessment plays a pivotal role in guiding therapeutic decisions. Conventional methods for evaluating mitotic count, such as biopsy-based assessments, encounter challenges stemming from tumor heterogeneity and sampling biases, thereby underscoring the urgent need for innovative approaches to enhance prognostic accuracy., Objective: The primary objective of this study was to develop a robust and reliable computational tool, PROMETheus (Preoperative Mitosis Estimator Tool), aimed at refining patient stratification through the precise estimation of mitotic count in GISTs., Methods: Using advanced Bayesian network methodologies, we constructed a directed acyclic graph (DAG) integrating pertinent clinicopathological variables essential for accurate mitotic count prediction on the surgical specimen. Key parameters identified and incorporated into the model encompassed tumor size, location, mitotic count from biopsy specimens, surface area evaluated during biopsy, and tumor response to therapy, when applicable. Rigorous testing procedures, including prior predictive simulations, validation utilizing synthetic data sets were employed. Finally, the model was trained on a comprehensive cohort of real-world GIST cases (n=80), drawn from the repository of the Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS) Humanitas Research Hospital, with a total of 160 cases analyzed., Results: Our computational model exhibited excellent diagnostic performance on synthetic data. Different model architecture were selected based on lower deviance and robust out-of-sample predictive capabilities. Posterior predictive checks (retrodiction) further corroborated the model's accuracy. Subsequently, PROMETheus was developed. This is an intuitive tool that dynamically computes predicted mitotic count and risk assessment on surgical specimens based on tumor-specific attributes, including size, location, surface area, and biopsy-derived mitotic count, using posterior probabilities derived from the model., Conclusions: The deployment of PROMETheus represents a potential advancement in preoperative risk stratification for GISTs, offering clinicians a precise and reliable means to anticipate mitotic counts on surgical specimens and a solid base to stratify patients for clinical studies. By facilitating tailored therapeutic strategies, this innovative tool is poised to revolutionize clinical decision-making paradigms, ultimately translating into improved patient outcomes and enhanced prognostic precision in the management of GISTs., (©Salvatore Lorenzo Renne, Manuela Cammelli, Ilaria Santori, Marta Tassan-Mangina, Laura Samà, Laura Ruspi, Federico Sicoli, Piergiuseppe Colombo, Luigi Maria Terracciano, Vittorio Quagliuolo, Ferdinando Carlo Maria Cananzi. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 22.10.2024.)