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This article discusses the magnetic connectivity between the Sun and the Earth, which is essential for understanding solar wind and space weather events. Due to limited direct observations, reliable simulations are necessary. The most commonly used method is the two-step ballistic method, but it has many free parameters that affect the results. The authors propose a method based on self-consistent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. They combine the COCONUT coronal model with the EUHFORIA heliospheric model to compute magnetic field lines from the Earth to the Sun and quantify spatial and temporal uncertainties. To validate their method, they analyze four events associated with high-speed streams from well-identified coronal holes. The results show partial overlap with the assumed coronal holes of origin, ranging from 19% to 100% depending on the event. They also examine the magnetic polarity observed on Earth, finding that MHD simulations provide a good polarity estimation, with agreement ranging from 36% to 69% across the events. Spatial and temporal uncertainties explain the mixed results for some cases. MHD models appear more effective during periods of maximum solar activity due to the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). The authors conclude that MHD models offer results as good as the two-step ballistic method, with potential for improvement as more critical physics are integrated into the models., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted in A&A

It has been suggested that under solar coronal conditions, drift waves may contribute to coronal heating. Specific properties of the drift waves to be expected in the solar corona have, however, not yet been determined using more advanced numerical models. We investigate the linear properties of density-gradient-driven drift waves in the solar coronal plasma using gyrokinetic ion-electron simulations with the gyrokinetic code GENE, solving the Vlasov-Maxwell equations in five dimensions assuming a simple slab geometry. We determine the frequencies and growth rates of the coronal density gradient-driven drift waves with changing plasma parameters, such as the electron \b{eta} , the density gradient, the magnetic shear and additional temperature gradients. To investigate the influence of the finite Larmor radius effect on the growth and structure of the modes, we also compare the gyrokinetic simulation results to those obtained from drift-kinetics. In most of the investigated conditions, the drift wave has positive growth rates that increase with increasing density gradient and decreasing \b{eta} . In the case of increasing magnetic shear, we find that from a certain point, the growth rate reaches a plateau. Depending on the considered reference environment, the frequencies and growth rates of these waves lie on the order of 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz. These values correspond to the observed solar wind density fluctuations near the Sun detected by WISPR, currently of unexplained origin. As a next step, nonlinear simulations are required to determine the expected fluctuation amplitudes and the plasma heating resulting from this mechanism., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted to Physics of Plasmas

Filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections are physical phenomena related to magnetic flux ropes carrying electric current. A magnetic flux rope is a key structure for solar eruptions, and when it carries a southward magnetic field component when propagating to the Earth. It is the primary driver of strong geomagnetic storms. As a result, developing a numerical model capable of capturing the entire progression of a flux rope, from its inception to its eruptive phase, is crucial for forecasting adverse space weather. The existence of such flux ropes is revealed by the presence of sigmoids in active regions or hot channels by observations from space and ground instruments. After proposing cartoons in 2D, potential, linear, non-linear-force-free-field (NLFFF) and non-force-free-field (NFFF) magnetic extrapolations, 3D numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation models were developed, first in a static configuration and later dynamic data-driven MHD models using high resolution observed vector magnetograms. This paper reviews a few recent developments in data-driven mode, such as the time-dependent magneto-frictional (TMF) and thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. Hereafter, to demonstrate the capacity of these models to reveal the physics of observations, we present the results for three events explored in our group: 1. the eruptive X1.0 flare on 28 October 2021; 2. the filament eruption on 18 August 2022; and 3. the confined X2.2 flare on 6 September 2017. These case studies validate the ability of data-driven models to retrieve observations, including the formation and eruption of flux ropes, 3D magnetic reconnection, CME three-part structures and the failed eruption. Based on these results, we provide some arguments for the formation mechanisms of flux ropes, the physical nature of the CME leading front, and the constraints of failed eruptions., Comment: 41 pages, 12 figures, pulished on Reviews of Modern Plasma Physics

Rising concerns about the impact of space weather-related disruptions demand modelling and reliable forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts. In this study, we demonstrate the application of the modified Miller-Turner (mMT) model implemented in EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), to forecast the geo-effectiveness of observed coronal mass ejection (CME) events in the heliosphere. The goal is to develop a model that not only has a global geometry to improve overall forecasting but is also fast enough for operational space weather forecasting. We test the original full torus implementation and introduce a new three-fourth Torus version called the Horseshoe CME model. This new model has a more realistic CME geometry, and it overcomes the inaccuracies of the full torus geometry. We constrain the torus geometrical and magnetic field parameters using observed signatures of the CMEs before, during, and after the eruption. The assessment of the model's capability to predict the most important Bz component is performed using the advanced Dynamic Time Warping technique. The Horseshoe model prediction of CME arrival time and geo-effectiveness for both validation events compare well to the observations and are weighed with the results obtained with the spheromak and FRi3D models that were already available in EUHFORIA. The runtime of the Horseshoe model simulations is close to that of the spheromak model, which is suitable for operational space weather forecasting. Yet, the capability of the magnetic field prediction at 1~AU of the Horseshoe model is close to that of the FRi3D model. In addition, we demonstrate that the Horseshoe CME model can be used for simulating successive CMEs in EUHFORIA, overcoming a limitation of the FRi3D model., Comment: 26 pages, 14 figures, to be published in A&A

Solar wind modelling has become a crucial area of study due to the increased dependence of modern society on technology, navigation, and power systems. Accurate space weather forecasts can predict upcoming threats to Earth's geospace. In this study, we examine a novel full magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) chain from the Sun to Earth. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the capabilities of the full MHD modelling chain from the Sun to Earth by finalising the implementation of the full MHD coronal model into the COolfluid COroNa UnsTructured (COCONUT) model and coupling it to the MHD heliospheric model Icarus. The resulting coronal model has significant advantages compared to the pre-existing polytropic alternative, as it models a more realistic bi-modal wind, which is crucial for heliospheric studies. In this study, only thermal conduction, radiative losses, and approximated coronal heating function were considered in the energy equation. A realistic specific heat ratio was applied. The output of the coronal model was used to onset the 3D MHD heliospheric model Icarus. A minimum solar activity case was chosen as the first test case for the full MHD model. The numerically simulated data in the corona and the heliosphere were compared to observational products. We present a first attempt to obtain the full MHD chain from the Sun to Earth with COCONUT and Icarus. The coronal model has been upgraded to a full MHD model for a realistic bi-modal solar wind configuration. The approximated heating functions have modelled the wind reasonably well, but simple approximations are not enough to obtain a realistic density-speed balance or realistic features in the low corona and farther, near the outer boundary. The full MHD model was computed in 1.06 h on 180 cores of the Genius cluster of the Vlaams Supercomputing Center, which is only 1.8 times longer than the polytropic simulation., Comment: 12 pages, 13 figures

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of the disturbances in interplanetary space. Understanding the CME interior magnetic structure is crucial for advancing space weather studies. Assessing the capabilities of a numerical heliospheric model is crucial, as understanding the nature and extent of its limitations can be used for improving the model and the space weather predictions based on it. The present paper aims to test the capabilities of the recently developed heliospheric model Icarus and the linear force-free spheromak model that has been implemented in it. To validate the Icarus space weather modeling tool, two CME events were selected that were observed by two spacecraft located near Mercury and Earth, respectively. This enables testing the heliospheric model computed with Icarus at two distant locations. The source regions for the CMEs were identified, and the CME parameters were determined and later optimized. Different adaptive mesh refinement levels were applied in the simulations to assess its performance by comparing the simulation results to in-situ measurements. The first CME event erupted on SOL2013-07-09T15:24. The modeled time series were in good agreement with the observations both at MESSENGER and ACE. The second CME event started on SOL2014-02-16T10:24 and was more complicated, as three CME interactions occurred in this event. It was impossible to recover the observed profiles without modeling the other two CMEs that were observed, one before the main CME and one afterward. For both CME studies, AMR level 3 was sufficient to reconstruct small-scale features near Mercury, while at Earth, AMR level 4 was necessary due to the radially stretched grid that was used., Comment: 16 pages, 17 figures

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are associated with shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The merging of two CMEs (so-called Cannibalistic CMEs) and the interaction of their associated shocks, has been linked to some of the most powerful solar storms ever recorded. Multiple studies have focused on the observational aspects of these SEP events, yet only a handful have focused on modeling similar CME-CME interactions in the heliosphere using advanced magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. This work presents, to our knowledge, the first modeling results of a fully time-dependent 3D simulation that captures both the interaction of two CMEs and its effect on the acceleration and transport of SEPs. This is achieved by using an MHD model for the solar wind and CME propagation together with an integrated SEP model. We perform different simulations and compare the behavior of the energetic protons in three different solar wind environments, where a combination of two SEP-accelerating CMEs are modeled. We find that particle acceleration is significantly affected by the presence of both CMEs in the simulation. Initially, less efficient acceleration results in lower energy particles. However, as the CMEs converge and their shocks eventually merge, particle acceleration is significantly enhanced through multiple acceleration processes between CME-driven shocks, resulting in higher particle intensities and energy levels.

We employ Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations during the latest solar minimum period (years 2018 -2021) to calibrate the version of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model used in the European space weather forecasting tool EUHFORIA. WSA provides a set of boundary conditions at 0.1 au necessary to initiate the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, namely, the domain extending beyond the solar Alfvenic point. To calibrate WSA, we observationally constrain four constants in the WSA semi-empirical formula based on PSP observations. We show how the updated (after the calibration) WSA boundary conditions at 0.1 au are compared to PSP observations at similar distances, and we further propagate these conditions in the heliosphere according to EUHFORIAs magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) approach. We assess the predictions at Earth based on the Dynamic Time Warping technique. Our findings suggest that, for the period of interest, the WSA configurations which resembled optimally the PSP observations close to the Sun, were different than the ones needed to provide better predictions at Earth. One reason for this discrepancy can be attributed to the scarcity of fast solar wind velocities recorded by PSP. The calibration of the model was performed based on unexpectedly slow velocities that did not allow us to achieve generally and globally improved solar wind predictions, compared to older studies. Other reasons can be attributed to missing physical processes from the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA but also the fact that the currently employed WSA relationship, as coupled to the heliospheric MHD domain, may need a global reformulation beyond that of just updating the four constant factors that were taken into account in this study.

EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a physics-based data-driven solar wind and CME propagation model designed for space weather forecasting and event analysis investigations. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties at Earth, it is not equipped to quantify the geoeffectiveness of the solar transients in terms of the geomagnetic indices like the disturbance storm time (Dst) index and the eauroral indices that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, we couple EUHFORIA with the Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM), a magnetohydrodynamic model of the response of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere, to transient solar wind characteristics. In this coupling, OpenGGCM is driven by the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulations to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric response to the CMEs. This coupling is validated with two observed geoeffective CME events driven with the spheromak flux-rope CME model. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecraft. We further employ the dynamic time warping (DTW) technique to assess the model performance in predicting Dst. The main highlight of this study is to use EUHFORIA simulated time series to predict the Dst and auroral indices 1 to 2 days in advance, as compared to using the observed solar wind data at L1, which only provides predictions 1 to 2 hours before the actual impact., Comment: Accepted in Space Weather on March 26, 2024

Different in situ satellite observations within 0.3 to 1 AU from the Sun reveal deviations in the thermodynamics of solar wind expansion. Specifically, these deviations challenge the applicability of the double adiabatic or CGL theory, indicating potential influences such as perpendicular heating and/or parallel cooling of ions. The study aims to investigate the plasma expansion phenomena using the Expanding Box Model (EBM) coupled with an ideal MHD description of the plasma. The primary objective is to understand the observed deviations from the CGL predictions, and how the expansion can affect the conservation of the adiabatic invariants, particularly focusing on the impact of transverse expansion on the CGL equations. To address the plasma expansion, we employed the Expanding Box Model (EBM) coupled with the ideal-MHD formalism used for CGL theory. This model provides a unique system of reference co-moving with the solar wind, allowing for the incorporation of transverse expansion into the double adiabatic equations. Solving the equations for different magnetic field profiles, we compute the evolution of anisotropy and plasma beta, which deviates from CGL predictions and empirical observations. This deviation is attributed to the plasma cooling effect induced by the Expanding Box Model (EBM). Results suggest that heating mechanisms play a crucial role in counteracting plasma cooling during expansion., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

We investigate the role of perpendicular diffusion in shaping energetic ion spectrum in corotating interaction regions (CIRs), focusing on its mass-to-charge ($A/Q$) dependence. We simulate a synthetic CIR using the EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and model the subsequent ion acceleration and transport by solving the focused transport equation incorporating both parallel and perpendicular diffusion. Our results reveal distinct differences in ion spectra between scenarios with and without perpendicular diffusion. In the absence of perpendicular diffusion, ion spectra near CIRs show a strong $(A/Q)^{\epsilon}$ dependence with $\epsilon$ depending on the turbulence spectral index, agreeing with theoretical predictions. In contrast, the incorporation of perpendicular diffusion, characterized by a weak $A/Q$ dependence, leading to similar spectra for different ion species. This qualitatively agrees with observations of energetic particles in CIRs., Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, accepeted by APJ Letters

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of solar wind disturbances near Earth. When directed towards us, the internal magnetic field of the CME can interact with the Earth`s magnetic field and cause geomagnetic storms. In order to better predict and avoid damage coming from such events, the optimized heliospheric model Icarus has been implemented. Aims. The impact of a CME at Earth is greatly affected by its internal magnetic field structure. The aim of this work is to enable modelling the evolution of the magnetic field configuration of the CME throughout its propagation in Icarus. The focus of the study is on the global magnetic structure of the CME and its evolution and interaction with the solar wind. Methods. The magnetized CME model that is implemented in Icarus is the Linear Force-Free Spheromak and is imported from EUHFORIA. Advanced techniques, such as grid stretching and AMR are applied. Different AMR levels are applied in order to obtain high resolution locally, where needed. The results of all the simulations are compared in detail and the wall-clock times of the simulations are provided. Results. The results from the performed simulations are analyzed. The arrival time is better approximated by the EUHFORIA simulation, with the CME shock arriving 1.6 and 1.09 hours later than in the AMR level 4 and 5 simulations, respectively. The profile features and variable strengths are best modelled by Icarus simulations with AMR level 4 and 5. Conclusions. The arrival time is closer to the observed time in the EUHFORIA simulation, but the profiles of the different variables show more features and details in the Icarus simulations. Considering the small difference in the modelled results, and the large difference in computational resources, the AMR level 4 simulation is considered to have performed the best., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures