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The amount of ocean protected from fishing and other human impacts has often been used as a metric of conservation progress. However, protection efforts have highly variable outcomes that depend on local conditions, which makes it difficult to quantify what coral reef protection efforts to date have actually achieved at a global scale. Here, we develop a predictive model of how local conditions influence conservation outcomes on ~2,600 coral reef sites across 44 ecoregions, which we used to quantify how much more fish biomass there is on coral reefs compared to a modeled scenario with no protection. Under the assumptions of our model, our study reveals that without existing protection efforts there would be ~10% less fish biomass on coral reefs. Thus, we estimate that coral reef protection efforts have led to approximately 1 in every 10 kg of existing fish biomass., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Scientific advances in environmental data coverage and machine learning algorithms have improved the ability to make large-scale predictions where data are missing. These advances allowed us to develop a spatially resolved proxy for predicting numbers of tropical nearshore marine taxa. A diverse marine environmental spatial database was used to model numbers of taxa from ∼1000 field sites, and the predictions were applied to all 7039 6.25-km 2 reef cells in 9 ecoregions and 11 nations of the western Indian Ocean. Our proxy for total numbers of taxa was based on the positive correlation (r 2  = 0.24) of numbers of taxa of hard corals and 5 highly diverse reef fish families. Environmental relationships indicated that the number of fish species was largely influenced by biomass, nearness to people, governance, connectivity, and productivity and that coral taxa were influenced mostly by physicochemical environmental variability. At spatial delineations of province, ecoregion, nation, and strength of spatial clustering, we compared areas of conservation priority based on our total species proxy with those identified in 3 previous priority-setting reports and with the protected area database. Our method identified 119 locations that fit 3 numbers of taxa (hard coral, fish, and their combination) and 4 spatial delineations (nation, ecoregion, province, and reef clustering) criteria. Previous publications on priority setting identified 91 priority locations of which 6 were identified by all reports. We identified 12 locations that fit our 12 criteria and corresponded with 3 previously identified locations, 65 that aligned with at least 1 past report, and 28 that were new locations. Only 34% of the 208 marine protected areas in this province overlapped with identified locations with high numbers of predicted taxa. Differences occurred because past priorities were frequently based on unquantified perceptions of remoteness and preselected priority taxa. Our environment-species proxy and modeling approach can be considered among other important criteria for making conservation decisions., (© 2024 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

The ability to strengthen governance institutions and fisheries restrictions and laws is needed to improve conservation and management of common-pool resources. We evaluated the potential for stimulating change with modest interventions by studying fishing village households before and after a 27-month intervention period in a high-priority coral reef conservation area. Interventions included training in catch monitoring, stock assessment, mapping fishing grounds, microcredit, gender inclusion, theatrical skills, fuel efficient stoves, and participation in the planning of a conservation proposal. There was a background increase in reported formal education, household size, group membership, and household wealth but a decrease in fish consumption and public services. Of conservation importance, the perceived strength of 13 governance institutions and benefits of 6 fisheries restrictions increased over the intervention period. Finally, correspondence between knowledge of and agreement with recent national fisheries laws was moderate to high and positively correlated. The intervention period was stronger than demographic factors that often influence perceptions, such as village, government services, gender, household size, membership in community groups, and age responses. In general, perceptions of strengths of governance and benefits of restrictions increased more among women and youth than adult men respondents. The largest changes in perceptions of increased benefits were among strict restrictions initially ranked low, specifically fisheries closures, parks, and species restrictions. Consequently, capacity building overrode demographic factors common to poor people with limited employment capacity that can have negative perceptions of strict conservation., (© 2024 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Commons' problems and solutions have the elements of local, proximate, and large-scale distal processes. Solutions, therefore, require accessing, implementing, and coordinating information and actions at multiple scales. Restoring commons, such as fisheries, will require a better understanding of how stakeholders access and use information at various scales to resolve governance and restrictions problems. In 179 household interviews, perceptions of fisheries conflicts and their causes were identified, and 16 management committee key informants described their methods for mediating hypothetical small-scale fisheries problems in Kenya. The 6 studied sites varied in human development and demographic contexts but had notable similarities that reflected a respondent's focus on localized, direct, and proximate fishing conflicts. The most cited problems included limited space, disagreement about gears, poor resource conditions, and locally inadequate benefits. The most cited sources of information were local households and the community, and there was considerably less acknowledgment of distal problems and solutions. Key informants selected a limited number of local community-focused solutions. For example, informants chose to mediate conflicts between neighbors with local community meetings rather than through formal national institutions. Therefore, distal solutions were likely to be perceived as ineffectual, possibly due to the challenges of polycentric governance coordination. However, widespread overfishing arises from overarching distal processes not fully amenable to local solutions. Therefore, a focus on local action is expected to limit the ability to address distal problems. These include conflicting values, demographic changes, supportive governance frameworks, emerging technologies, resolving conflicting local rules, fair between-group enforcement, responding to temporary shortages of fish, and intercommunity border and rule disputes. Improved coordination and integration of information and institutions to simultaneously address both proximate and distal common's problems are recommended., (© 2023 Society for Conservation Biology.)

The need to enhance nutrient production from tropical ecosystems to feed the poor could potentially create a new framework for fisheries science and management. Early recommendations have included targeting small fishes and increasing the species richness of fish catches, which could represent a departure from more traditional approaches such as biomass-based management. To test these recommendations, we compared the outcomes of biomass-based management with hypothesized factors influencing nutrient density in nearshore artisanal fish catches in the Western Indian Ocean. We found that enhancing nutrient production depends primarily on achieving biomass-based targets. Catches dominated by low- and mid-trophic level species with smaller body sizes and faster turnover were associated with modest increases in nutrient densities, but the variability in nutrient density was small relative to human nutritional requirements. Therefore, tropical fishery management should focus on restoring biomass to achieve maximum yields and sustainability, particularly for herbivorous fishes., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024 The Author(s).)

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate., (© 2023 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)