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Objective: The decision to convert from catheter to arteriovenous access is difficult yet very important. The ability to accurately predict fistula survival prior to surgery would significantly improve the decision making process. Many previously investigated demographic and clinical features have been associated with fistula failure. However, it is not conclusively understood how reliable predictions based on these parameters are at an individual level. The aim of this study was to investigate the probability of arteriovenous fistula maturation and survival after conversion using machine learning workflows., Methods: A retrospective cohort study on multicentre data from a large North American dialysis organisation was conducted. The study population comprised 73 031 chronic in centre haemodialysis patients. The dataset included 49 variables including demographic and clinical features. Two distinct feature selection and prediction pipelines were used: LASSO regression and Boruta followed by a random forest classifier. Predictions were facilitated for re-conversion to catheter within one year. Additionally, all cause mortality predictions were conducted to serve as a comparator., Results: In total, 38 151 patients (52.2%) had complete data and made up the main cohort. Sensitivity analyses were conducted in 67 421 patients (92.3%) after eliminating variables with a high proportion of missing data points. Selected features diverged between datasets and workflows. A previously failed arteriovenous access appeared to be the most stable predictor for subsequent failure. Prediction of re-conversion based on the demographic and clinical information resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC) between 0.541 and 0.571, whereas models predicting all cause mortality performed considerably better (ROCAUC 0.662 - 0.683)., Conclusion: While group level depiction of major adverse outcomes after catheter to arteriovenous fistula or graft conversion is possible using the included variables, patient level predictions are associated with limited performance. Factors during and after fistula creation as well as biomolecular and genetic biomarkers might be more relevant predictors of fistula survival than baseline clinical conditions., (Copyright © 2024 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Roxadustat is an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor approved in several regions for the treatment of anemia of chronic kidney disease (CKD). DENALI, a phase 3b study, evaluated the efficacy, safety, and feasibility of roxadustat in patients with anemia of CKD receiving in-center or home dialysis., Methods: Eligible patients received open-label roxadustat, dosed three times weekly for 24 weeks, with an optional extension of ≤1 year. Initial dosing depended on erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) dose at screening for patients receiving ESAs (≥6 weeks) and weight-based for those not (total <6 weeks). Primary efficacy endpoints were proportion of patients with mean hemoglobin (Hb) ≥10.0 g/dL averaged over Weeks 16-24, and mean Hb change from baseline to the average during Weeks 16-24. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) and treatment-emergent serious adverse events (TESAEs) were assessed., Findings: Of 281 patients screened, 203 were treated and 201 included in the full analysis set. Overall, 166 patients completed the 24-week treatment period and 126 continued into the extension period. Mean baseline Hb was 10.4 g/dL and 82.6% received in-center hemodialysis. Overall, 84.6% of patients achieved a mean Hb ≥ 10.0 g/dL averaged Weeks 16-24. Mean (standard deviation) Hb change from baseline averaged Weeks 16-24 was 0.5 (1.0) g/dL. Prespecified subgroup analyses were consistent with primary analyses. Dosing adherence was 94%. Overall, 3.0% of patients received a red blood cell transfusion at up to Week 24. TEAEs and TESAEs were reported by 71.4% and 25.6% of patients, respectively. The most frequently reported TESAEs were COVID-19 (n = 5; 2.5%), and acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, and sepsis (each n = 4; 2.0%)., Discussion: Roxadustat effectively achieved and/or maintained mean Hb levels ≥10.0 g/dL in patients receiving dialysis. The feasibility of incorporating oral roxadustat into dialysis organizations was successfully demonstrated with high dosing adherence. No new safety signals were identified., (© 2023 The Authors. Hemodialysis International published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Society for Hemodialysis.)