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This commentary explores historical efforts to diagnose the present and project the future through the specific example of medical manpower planning. To situate this, it draws on work within and across geography exploring the concept of anticipation and considers the discipline's failure to adequately engage with healthcare workers, despite the vibrancy of health geography as a subdiscipline. As it explores, ensuring adequate numbers of staff in a healthcare system has been an issue for as long as there have been healthcare systems. Planning for healthcare system needs is thus a particularly fraught form of anticipation that seeks to project future needs from a contested and often incalculable present as a basis for political decision‐making and resource allocation. As this commentary explores, it is a problem that is global in scope, historically deep and thus rich in analytical possibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the twentieth century, the concept of the natural experiment has become increasingly prominent across a variety of disciplines, albeit most consequentially in epidemiology and public health. Drawing on an analysis of the scientific and medical literature, we explore the social life of the natural experiment, tracing its changing use, meaning and uptake to better understand the work done by the concept. We demonstrate how the natural experiment became central to the identity of post‐war epidemiology as the discipline professionalised, turned its attention to the prevention of chronic disease and took centre stage in the field of public health. We then turn to its growing significance amid the rise of evidence‐based medicine, and the new meanings natural experiments came to take on in the context of concerns about policy and evidence. Finally, we turn to the newest iteration of the natural experiment in the COVID‐19 era, which saw an explosion of studies drawing on the term, albeit in ways that reveal more about the underlying politics of health than the method itself. Throughout, we illustrate that the concept of the natural experiment has always been fundamentally social and political and tied to disciplinary claims‐making about evidence and what should count as such. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]