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Effective packaging solutions are pivotal in addressing sustainability challenges associated with food consumption. Sustainable packaging must not only reduce ecological impact but also ensure food quality preservation, minimize the risk of foodborne diseases, and contribute to mitigating the accumulation of plastic waste. While paper-based food packaging is environmentally friendly, it is susceptible to mold growth when exposed to specific humidity and temperatures, potentially leading to spoilage and safety concerns. This study introduces an innovative modeling approach employing survival analysis to estimate time to visible mold growth on paper-based materials used in food-contact packaging under varying environmental conditions. The objective is to establish an alternative statistical framework for assessing the impact of relative humidity and temperature on mold proliferation. This approach is particularly relevant to novel sustainable packaging materials in the food industry, especially when dealing with censored data. Survival heatmaps are developed to simplify the visualization of spoilage likelihood, measured by time to visible growth at a given confidence level. Although the survival model is proposed for paper-based materials, there are no theoretical limitations to its extension for use with other materials within and beyond the food industry. • Proposed survival heatmaps to simplify spoilage likelihood visualization. • Investigated spoilage characteristics of novel paper-based packaging. • Addressed challenges of censored data in mold growth modeling. • Proposed a conservative predictive model to assess spoilage timelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]