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Pathogen genomics can provide insights into underlying infectious disease transmission patterns, but new methods are needed to handle modern large-scale pathogen genome datasets and realize this full potential. In particular, genetically proximal viruses should be highly informative about transmission events as genetic proximity indicates epidemiological linkage. Here, we leverage pairs of identical sequences to characterise fine-scale transmission patterns using 114,298 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected through Washington State (USA) genomic sentinel surveillance with associated age and residence location information between March 2021 and December 2022. This corresponds to 59,660 sequences with another identical sequence in the dataset. We find that the location of pairs of identical sequences is highly consistent with expectations from mobility and social contact data. Outliers in the relationship between genetic and mobility data can be explained by SARS-CoV-2 transmission between postal codes with male prisons, consistent with transmission between prison facilities. We find that transmission patterns between age groups vary across spatial scales. Finally, we use the timing of sequence collection to understand the age groups driving transmission. Overall, this work improves our ability to leverage large pathogen genome datasets to understand the determinants of infectious disease spread., Competing Interests: ALG reports contract testing from Abbott, Cepheid, Novavax, Pfizer, Janssen and Hologic, research support from Gilead, and salary and stock grants for LabCorp an immediate family member, outside of the described work. All other authors declare no competing interests.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape., Competing Interests: ALG reported receiving contract testing from Abbott, Cepheid, Novavax, Pfizer, Janssen and Hologic and research support from Gilead and Merck, outside of the described work. HC reported consulting with Ellume, Pfizer, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Glaxo Smith Kline, and Merck. She has received research funding from Emergent Ventures, Gates Ventures, Sanofi Pasteur, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and research support and reagents from Ellume and Cepheid outside of the submitted work. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)