Search

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to address species' responses to bioclimatic conditions in the fields of ecology, biogeography and conservation. Among studies that have addressed reasons for model prediction variability, the impact of climatic variable selection has received limited attention and is rarely assessed in sensitivity analyses. Here, we tested the assumption that this aspect of model design is a major source of uncertainty, especially when projections are made to non-analogue climates. As a study system, we used 142 alien plant species introduced to the sub-Antarctic islands. Based on global occurrence data, we fitted SDMs as functions of seven bioclimatic variable sets that only differed in the identity of two temperature variables. Moreover, we calculated the overlap between the island's climatic conditions and the niches the species have realised outside of the islands. Despite comparable internal evaluation metrics, projections of these models were in sharp contrast with each other, with some models predicting the sub-Antarctic islands' climate to be almost ubiquitously suitable to most species and others unsuitable to almost all species. In particular, the mean temperature of the warmest month led to strong underpredictions of the SDMs, while its replacement by the mean temperature of the coldest month led to massive overpredictions. Partitioning the variance in projections demonstrated that predictor identity was its most important source, followed by island and species identity. The size of area projected to be suitable was also related to the overlap in predictor values realised in the global range of species (outside of the islands) and on the islands. Our findings emphasise the importance of bioclimatic variable selection in SDMs, especially when making projections to non-analogue climates. Such extrapolations are often required, especially when using SDMs to assess invasion risk under both current and future climates., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Why and how organismal lineages radiate is commonly studied through either assessing abiotic factors (biogeography, geomorphological processes, and climate) or biotic factors (traits and interactions). Despite increasing awareness that both abiotic and biotic processes may have important joint effects on diversification dynamics, few attempts have been made to quantify the relative importance and timing of these factors, and their potentially interlinked direct and indirect effects, on lineage diversification. We here combine assessments of historical biogeography, geomorphology, climatic niche, vegetative, and floral trait evolution to test whether these factors jointly, or in isolation, explain diversification dynamics of a Neotropical plant clade (Merianieae, Melastomataceae). After estimating ancestral areas and the changes in niche and trait disparity over time, we employ Phylogenetic Path Analyses as a synthesis tool to test eleven hypotheses on the individual direct and indirect effects of these factors on diversification rates. We find strongest support for interlinked effects of colonization of the uplifting Andes during the mid-Miocene and rapid abiotic climatic niche evolution in explaining a burst in diversification rate in Merianieae. Within Andean habitats, later increases in floral disparity allowed for the exploitation of wider pollination niches (i.e., shifts from bee to vertebrate pollinators), but did not affect diversification rates. Our approach of including both vegetative and floral trait evolution, rare in assessments of plant diversification in general, highlights that the evolution of woody habit and larger flowers preceded the colonization of the Andes, but was likely critical in enabling the rapid radiation in montane environments. Overall, and in concert with the idea that ecological opportunity is a key element of evolutionary radiations, our results suggest that a combination of rapid niche evolution and trait shifts was critical for the exploitation of newly available niche space in the Andes in the mid-Miocene. Further, our results emphasize the importance of incorporating both abiotic and biotic factors into the same analytical framework if we aim to quantify the relative and interlinked effects of these processes on diversification., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.)

Climate change is leading to advanced snowmelt date in alpine regions. Consequently, alpine plant species and ecosystems experience substantial changes due to prolonged phenological seasons, while the responses, mechanisms and implications remain widely unclear. In this 3-year study, we investigated the effects of advancing snowmelt on the phenology of alpine snowbed species. We related microclimatic drivers to species and ecosystem phenology using in situ monitoring and phenocams. We further used predictive modelling to determine whether early snowmelt sites could be used as sentinels for future conditions. Temperature during the snow-free period primarily influenced flowering phenology, followed by snowmelt timing. Salix herbacea and Gnaphalium supinum showed the most opportunistic phenology, while annual Euphrasia minima struggled to complete its phenology in short growing seasons. Phenological responses varied more between years than sites, indicating potential local long-term adaptations and suggesting these species' potential to track future earlier melting dates. Phenocams captured ecosystem-level phenology (start, peak and end of phenological season) but failed to explain species-level variance. Our findings highlight species-specific responses to advancing snowmelt, with snowbed species responding highly opportunistically to changes in snowmelt timings while following species-specific developmental programs. While species from surrounding grasslands may benefit from extended growing seasons, snowbed species may become outcompeted due to internal-clock-driven, non-opportunistic senescence, despite displaying a high level of phenological plasticity., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest related to this study., (© 2024 The Author(s). Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe's forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe. We show that the average pool of tree species continuously suitable throughout the century is smaller than that under current and end-of-century climate conditions, creating a tree species bottleneck for current management. If the need for continuous climate suitability throughout the lifespan of a tree planted today is considered, climate change shrinks the tree species pool available to management by between 33% and 49% of its current values (40% and 54% of potential end-of-century values), under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) and severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate change, respectively. This bottleneck could have strong negative impacts on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, as only 3.18, 3.53 and 2.56 species of high potential for providing these functions remain suitable throughout the century on average per square kilometre in Europe. Our results indicate that the option space for silviculture is narrowing substantially because of climate change and that an important adaptation strategy in forestry-creating mixed forests-might be curtailed by widespread losses of climatically suitable tree species., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy., Competing Interests: The authors declare to have no conflicts of interest., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)