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Abstract Background Needle and syringe programs (NSP) are effective harm-reduction strategies against HIV and hepatitis C. Although skin, soft tissue, and vascular infections (SSTVI) are the most common morbidities in people who inject drugs (PWID), the extent to which NSP are clinically and cost-effective in relation to SSTVI in PWID remains unclear. The objective of this study was to model the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of NSP with respect to treatment of SSTVI in PWID. Methods We performed a model-based, economic evaluation comparing a scenario with NSP to a scenario without NSP. We developed a microsimulation model to generate two cohorts of 100,000 individuals corresponding to each NSP scenario and estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and cost (in 2022 Canadian dollars) over a 5-year time horizon (1.5% per annum for costs and outcomes). To assess the clinical effectiveness of NSP, we conducted survival analysis that accounted for the recurrent use of health care services for treating SSTVI and SSTVI mortality in the presence of competing risks. Results The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio associated with NSP was $70,278 per QALY, with incremental cost and QALY gains corresponding to $1207 and 0.017 QALY, respectively. Under the scenario with NSP, there were 788 fewer SSTVI deaths per 100,000 PWID, corresponding to 24% lower relative hazard of mortality from SSTVI (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.72–0.80). Health service utilization over the 5-year period remained lower under the scenario with NSP (outpatient: 66,511 vs. 86,879; emergency department: 9920 vs. 12,922; inpatient: 4282 vs. 5596). Relatedly, having NSP was associated with a modest reduction in the relative hazard of recurrent outpatient visits (HR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.95–0.97) for purulent SSTVI as well as outpatient (HR = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.87–0.88) and emergency department visits (HR = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.97–0.99) for non-purulent SSTVI. Conclusions Both the individuals and the healthcare system benefit from NSP through lower risk of SSTVI mortality and prevention of recurrent outpatient and emergency department visits to treat SSTVI. The microsimulation framework provides insights into clinical and economic implications of NSP, which can serve as valuable evidence that can aid decision-making in expansion of NSP services.

Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding the effectiveness of these interventions due to data quality issues, methodological challenges, and differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation of their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness. Methods: To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes the impact of NPIs and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted the model to comprehensive epidemiological data in France from March 2020 to October 2021. With the same model, we simulated scenarios of vaccine rollout. Results: The first lockdown was the most effective, reducing transmission by 84 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 83–85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished effectiveness (reduction of 74 % (69–77) and 11 % (9–18), respectively). A 6 pm curfew was more effective than one at 8 pm (68 % (66–69) vs. 48 % (45–49) reduction), while school closures reduced transmission by 15 % (12–18). In a scenario without vaccines before November 2021, we predicted 159,000 or 168 % (95 % prediction interval (PI) 70-315) more deaths and 1,488,000 or 300 % (133-492) more hospitalizations. If a vaccine had been available after 100 days, over 71,000 deaths (16,507–204,249) and 384,000 (88,579–1,020,386) hospitalizations could have been averted. Conclusion: Our results highlight the substantial impact of NPIs, including lockdowns and curfews, in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. We also demonstrate the value of the 100 days objective of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) initiative for vaccine availability.