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Purpose: Monitoring metabolites of tamoxifen, such as endoxifen, has been suggested as a strategy to ascertain therapeutic effect of tamoxifen therapy but clinical guidelines are missing. Herein we aim to investigate the outcome of endoxifen concentrations of low dose tamoxifen, using change in mammographic breast density (MBD) as a proxy for therapy response., Material and Methods: In the randomized KARISMA trial, including five doses of tamoxifen, measurements of plasma endoxifen concentrations, determination of CYP2D6 metabolizer status and MBD change over the trial period, were carried out. Association between endoxifen concentrations and relative MBD change after 6 months treatment was analysed using linear regression in a spline model., Results: A total of 824 women (335 premenopausal, 489 postmenopausal) were included. In analyses of premenopausal women, a spline model described a MBD decrease, equivalent to the mean (-18.5%) seen in women exposed to 20 mg tamoxifen, at endoxifen concentrations of 2-3 ng/mL. The MBD decrease reached a nadir at endoxifen levels of 3 ng/mL and did not decrease further at higher endoxifen concentrations. Most intermediate and normal tamoxifen-metabolizers (≈ 90% of all participants) reached an endoxifen concentration of > 2 ng/mL at tamoxifen doses of 5 and 10 mg. No MBD decrease was seen in the postmenopausal group., Conclusion: We have identified a possible window of effect on MBD at endoxifen concentrations of 2-3 ng/mL in premenopausal women, which corresponds to the doses of 5 and 10 mg tamoxifen. Since MBD change was used as a surrogate marker for therapy response, results should be confirmed using clinically established outcomes measures., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03346200., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Co-observation of a gene variant with a pathogenic variant in another gene that explains the disease presentation has been designated as evidence against pathogenicity for commonly used variant classification guidelines. Multiple variant curation expert panels have specified, from consensus opinion, that this evidence type is not applicable for the classification of breast cancer predisposition gene variants. Statistical analysis of sequence data for 55,815 individuals diagnosed with breast cancer from the BRIDGES sequencing project was undertaken to formally assess the utility of co-observation data for germline variant classification. Our analysis included expected loss-of-function variants in 11 breast cancer predisposition genes and pathogenic missense variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, and TP53. We assessed whether co-observation of pathogenic variants in two different genes occurred more or less often than expected under the assumption of independence. Co-observation of pathogenic variants in each of BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 with the remaining genes was less frequent than expected. This evidence for depletion remained after adjustment for age at diagnosis, study design (familial versus population-based), and country. Co-observation of a variant of uncertain significance in BRCA1, BRCA2, or PALB2 with a pathogenic variant in another breast cancer gene equated to supporting evidence against pathogenicity following criterion strength assignment based on the likelihood ratio and showed utility in reclassification of missense BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants identified in BRIDGES. Our approach has applicability for assessing the value of co-observation as a predictor of variant pathogenicity in other clinical contexts, including for gene-specific guidelines developed by ClinGen Variant Curation Expert Panels., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests P.A.F. conducts research funded by Amgen, Novartis, and Pfizer. He received Honoraria from Roche, Novartis, and Pfizer. A.R.M. received funds from AstraZeneca for contribution to sponsored quality assessments and variant interpretation of VUSs in BRCA1 and BRCA2. The funds were paid to the institution., (Copyright © 2024 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Clinical genetic testing identifies variants causal for hereditary cancer, information that is used for risk assessment and clinical management. Unfortunately, some variants identified are of uncertain clinical significance (VUS), complicating patient management. Case-control data is one evidence type used to classify VUS, and previous findings indicate that case-control likelihood ratios (LRs) outperform odds ratios for variant classification. As an initiative of the Evidence-based Network for the Interpretation of Germline Mutant Alleles (ENIGMA) Analytical Working Group we analyzed germline sequencing data of BRCA1 and BRCA2 from 96,691 female breast cancer cases and 303,925 unaffected controls from three studies: the BRIDGES study of the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility consortium, and the UK Biobank. We observed 11,227 BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants, with 6,921 being coding, covering 23.4% of BRCA1 and BRCA2 VUS in ClinVar and 19.2% of ClinVar curated (likely) benign or pathogenic variants. Case-control LR evidence was highly consistent with ClinVar assertions for (likely) benign or pathogenic variants; exhibiting 99.1% sensitivity and 95.4% specificity for BRCA1 and 92.2% sensitivity and 86.6% specificity for BRCA2 . This approach provides case-control evidence for 785 unclassified variants, that can serve as a valuable element for clinical classification.

Tamoxifen prevents recurrence of breast cancer and is also approved for preventive, risk-reducing, therapy. Tamoxifen alters the breast tissue composition and decreases the mammographic density. We aimed to test if baseline breast tissue composition influences tamoxifen-associated density change. This biopsy-based study included 83 participants randomised to 6 months daily intake of placebo, 20, 10, 5, 2.5, or 1 mg tamoxifen. The study is nested within the double-blinded tamoxifen dose-determination trial Karolinska Mammography Project for Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer Intervention (KARISMA) Study. Ultrasound-guided core-needle breast biopsies were collected at baseline before starting treatment. Biopsies were quantified for epithelial, stromal, and adipose distributions, and epithelial and stromal expression of proliferation marker Ki67, oestrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR). Mammographic density was measured using STRATUS. We found that greater mammographic density at baseline was positively associated with stromal area and inversely associated with adipose area and stromal expression of ER. Premenopausal women had greater mammographic density and epithelial tissue, and expressed more epithelial Ki67, PR, and stromal PR, compared to postmenopausal women. In women treated with tamoxifen (1-20 mg), greater density decrease was associated with higher baseline density, epithelial Ki67, and stromal PR. Women who responded to tamoxifen with a density decrease had on average 17% higher baseline density and a 2.2-fold higher PR expression compared to non-responders. Our results indicate that features in the normal breast tissue before tamoxifen exposure influences the tamoxifen-associated density decrease, and that the age-associated difference in density change may be related to age-dependant differences in expression of Ki67 and PR., (© 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Conflicting results have appeared in the literature on whether the amount of non-dense, adipose tissue in the breast is a risk factor or a protective factor for breast cancer, and biological hypotheses supporting both have been proposed. We suggest here that limitations in study design and statistical methodology could potentially explain the inconsistent results. Specifically, we exploit recent advances in methodology and software developed for the joint analysis of multiple longitudinal outcomes and time-to-event data to jointly analyze dense and non-dense tissue trajectories and the risk of breast cancer in a large, Swedish, screening cohort. We also perform extensive sensitivity analyses by mimicking analyses/designs of previously published studies, e.g. ignoring available longitudinal data. Overall, we did not find strong evidence supporting an association between non-dense tissue and the risk of incident breast cancer. We hypothesize that (1) previous studies have not been able to isolate the effect of non-dense tissue from dense tissue or adipose tissue elsewhere in the body, that (2) estimates of the effect of non-dense tissue on risk are strongly sensitive to modeling assumptions, or that (3) the effect size of non-dense tissue on breast cancer risk is likely to be small/not clinically relevant., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

In Nordic countries and across Europe, breast cancer screening participation is high. However, a significant number of breast cancer cases are still diagnosed due to symptoms between screening rounds, termed "interval cancers". Radiologists use the interval cancer proportion as a proxy for the screening false negative rate (ie, 1-sensitivity). Our objective is to enhance our understanding of interval cancers by applying continuous tumour growth models to data from a study involving incident invasive breast cancer cases. Building upon previous findings regarding stationary distributions of tumour size and growth rate distributions in non-screened populations, we develop an analytical expression for the proportion of interval breast cancer cases among regularly screened women. Our approach avoids relying on estimated background cancer rates. We make specific parametric assumptions concerning tumour growth and detection processes (screening or symptoms), but our framework easily accommodates alternative assumptions. We also show how our developed analytical expression for the proportion of interval breast cancers within a screened population can be incorporated into an approach for fitting tumour growth models to incident case data. We fit a model on 3493 cases diagnosed in Sweden between 2001 and 2008. Our methodology allows us to estimate the distribution of tumour sizes at the most recent screening for interval cancers. Importantly, we find that our model-based expected incidence of interval breast cancers aligns closely with observed patterns in our study and in a large Nordic screening cohort. Finally, we evaluate the association between screening interval length and the interval cancer proportion. Our analytical expression represents a useful tool for gaining insights into the performance of population-based breast cancer screening programs., (© 2024 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Purpose: Mammographic density phenotypes, adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI), are strong predictors of breast cancer risk. BMI is associated with mammographic density measures, but the role of circulating sex hormone concentrations is less clear. We investigated the relationship between BMI, circulating sex hormone concentrations, and mammographic density phenotypes using Mendelian randomization (MR)., Methods: We applied two-sample MR approaches to assess the association between genetically predicted circulating concentrations of sex hormones [estradiol, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG)], BMI, and mammographic density phenotypes (dense and non-dense area). We created instrumental variables from large European ancestry-based genome-wide association studies and applied estimates to mammographic density phenotypes in up to 14,000 women of European ancestry. We performed analyses overall and by menopausal status., Results: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with non-dense area (IVW: β = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.58, 2.00; p = 9.57 × 10 -63 ) and inversely associated with dense area (IVW: β = - 0.37; 95% CI = - 0.51,- 0.23; p = 4.7 × 10 -7 ). We observed weak evidence for an association of circulating sex hormone concentrations with mammographic density phenotypes, specifically inverse associations between genetically predicted testosterone concentration and dense area (β = - 0.22; 95% CI = - 0.38, - 0.053; p = 0.009) and between genetically predicted estradiol concentration and non-dense area (β =  - 3.32; 95% CI = - 5.83, - 0.82; p = 0.009), although results were not consistent across a range of MR approaches., Conclusion: Our findings support a positive causal association between BMI and mammographic non-dense area and an inverse association between BMI and dense area. Evidence was weaker and inconsistent for a causal effect of circulating sex hormone concentrations on mammographic density phenotypes. Based on our findings, associations between circulating sex hormone concentrations and mammographic density phenotypes are weak at best., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

Pubertal timing varies considerably and is associated with later health outcomes. We performed multi-ancestry genetic analyses on ~800,000 women, identifying 1,080 signals for age at menarche. Collectively, these explained 11% of trait variance in an independent sample. Women at the top and bottom 1% of polygenic risk exhibited ~11 and ~14-fold higher risks of delayed and precocious puberty, respectively. We identified several genes harboring rare loss-of-function variants in ~200,000 women, including variants in ZNF483, which abolished the impact of polygenic risk. Variant-to-gene mapping approaches and mouse gonadotropin-releasing hormone neuron RNA sequencing implicated 665 genes, including an uncharacterized G-protein-coupled receptor, GPR83, which amplified the signaling of MC3R, a key nutritional sensor. Shared signals with menopause timing at genes involved in DNA damage response suggest that the ovarian reserve might signal centrally to trigger puberty. We also highlight body size-dependent and independent mechanisms that potentially link reproductive timing to later life disease., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Associations between germline alterations in women and cancer risks among their relatives are largely unknown., Methods: We identified women from 2 Swedish cohorts Karolinska Mammography Project for Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer (KARMA) and prevalent KARMA (pKARMA), including 28 362 women with genotyping data and 13 226 with sequencing data. Using Swedish Multi-Generation Register, we linked these women to 133 389 first-degree relatives. Associations between protein-truncating variants in 8 risk genes and breast cancer polygenic risk score in index women and cancer risks among their relatives were modeled via Cox regression., Results: Female relatives of index women who were protein-truncating variant carriers in any of the 8 risk genes had an increased breast cancer risk compared with those of noncarriers (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52 to 2.27), with the strongest association found for protein-truncating variants in BRCA1 and 2. These relatives had a statistically higher risk of early onset than late-onset breast cancer (P = .001). Elevated breast cancer risk was also observed in female relatives of index women with higher polygenic risk score (HR per SD = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.23 to 1.32). The estimated lifetime risk was 22.3% for female relatives of protein-truncating variant carriers and 14.4% for those related to women in the top polygenic risk score quartile. Moreover, relatives of index women with protein-truncating variant presence (HR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.59) or higher polygenic risk score (HR per SD = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.07) were also at higher risk of nonbreast hereditary breast and ovary cancer syndrome-related cancers., Conclusions: Protein-truncating variants of risk genes and higher polygenic risk score in index women are associated with an increased risk of breast and other hereditary breast and ovary syndrome-related cancers among relatives., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Many studies have examined patient-related factors affecting adjuvant hormone therapy adherence in patients with breast cancer. Our study aimed to examine associations of family-related factors with adjuvant hormone therapy discontinuation and breast cancer-specific mortality., Methods: By cross-linking 7 Swedish health registers, we performed a cohort study that included all patients with breast cancer who initiated adjuvant hormone therapy during 2006-2019 in Sweden (N = 10 701). A group-based multitrajectory model was used to identify familial adversity groups based on 3 dimensions: material deprivation, negative family dynamics, and loss or threat of loss. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate associations of familial adversity with hormone therapy discontinuation and breast cancer-specific mortality., Results: We identified 5 distinctive familial adversity groups among the cohort participants. Compared with women who had low familial adversity, higher risks to discontinue adjuvant hormone therapy were observed among women with material deprivation (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 to 1.43), negative family dynamics (HR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.28), loss or threat of loss (HR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.32), or high familial adversity (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.40 to 1.68). Furthermore, women with material deprivation (HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.79), negative family dynamics (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.97), or high adversity (HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.26 to 2.23) were at higher risk of dying from breast cancer., Conclusion: Familial adversity is associated with a higher risk of adjuvant hormone therapy discontinuation and breast cancer-specific mortality. Family-related factors identified in our study may help identify high-risk patients for interventions to prevent treatment discontinuation and subsequently improve breast cancer outcomes., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Importance: Breast cancers (BCs) diagnosed between 2 screening examinations are called interval cancers (ICs), and they have worse clinicopathological characteristics and poorer prognosis than screen-detected cancers (SDCs). However, the association of rare germline genetic variants with IC have not been studied., Objective: To evaluate whether rare germline deleterious protein-truncating variants (PTVs) can be applied to discriminate between IC and SDC while considering mammographic density., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based genetic association study was based on women aged 40 to 76 years who were attending mammographic screening in Sweden. All women with a diagnosis of BC between January 2001 and January 2016 were included, together with age-matched controls. Patients with BC were followed up for survival until 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2021 to December 2022., Exposure: Germline PTVs in 34 BC susceptibility genes as analyzed by targeted sequencing., Main Outcomes and Measures: Odds ratios (ORs) were used to compare IC with SDC using logistic regression. Hazard ratios were used to investigate BC-specific survival using Cox regression., Results: All 4121 patients with BC (IC, n = 1229; SDC, n = 2892) were female, with a mean (SD) age of 55.5 (7.1) years. There were 5631 age-matched controls. The PTVs of the ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, and PALB2 genes were more common in patients with IC compared with SDC (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.06-2.05). This association was primarily influenced by BRCA1/2 and PALB2 variants. A family history of BC together with PTVs of any of these genes synergistically increased the probability of receiving a diagnosis of IC rather than SDC (OR, 3.95; 95% CI, 1.97-7.92). Furthermore, 10-year BC-specific survival revealed that if a patient received a diagnosis of an IC, carriers of PTVs in any of these 5 genes had significantly worse survival compared with patients not carrying any of them (hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.06-3.92). All of these associations were further pronounced in a subset of patients with IC who had a low mammographic density at prior screening examination., Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study may be helpful in future optimizations of screening programs that aim to lower mortality as well as the clinical treatment of patients with BC.

Objective: Current breast cancer risk prediction scores and algorithms can potentially be further improved by including molecular markers. To this end, we studied the association of circulating plasma proteins using Proximity Extension Assay (PEA) with incident breast cancer risk., Subjects: In this study, we included 1577 women participating in the prospective KARMA mammographic screening cohort., Results: In a targeted panel of 164 proteins, we found 8 candidates nominally significantly associated with short-term breast cancer risk (P < 0.05). Similarly, in an exploratory panel consisting of 2204 proteins, 115 were found nominally significantly associated (P < 0.05). However, none of the identified protein levels remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing. This lack of statistically significant findings was not due to limited power, but attributable to the small effect sizes observed even for nominally significant proteins. Similarly, adding plasma protein levels to established risk factors did not improve breast cancer risk prediction accuracy., Conclusions: Our results indicate that the levels of the studied plasma proteins captured by the PEA method are unlikely to offer additional benefits for risk prediction of short-term overall breast cancer risk but could provide interesting insights into the biological basis of breast cancer in the future., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Importance: False-positive mammography results are common. However, long-term outcomes after a false-positive result remain unclear., Objectives: To examine long-term outcomes after a false-positive mammography result and to investigate whether the association of a false-positive mammography result with cancer differs by baseline characteristics, tumor characteristics, and time since the false-positive result., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, matched cohort study was conducted in Sweden from January 1, 1991, to March 31, 2020. It included 45 213 women who received a first false-positive mammography result between 1991 and 2017 and 452 130 controls matched on age, calendar year of mammography, and screening history (no previous false-positive result). The study also included 1113 women with a false-positive result and 11 130 matched controls with information on mammographic breast density from the Karolinska Mammography Project for Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer study. Statistical analysis was performed from April 2022 to February 2023., Exposure: A false-positive mammography result., Main Outcomes and Measures: Breast cancer incidence and mortality., Results: The study cohort included 497 343 women (median age, 52 years [IQR, 42-59 years]). The 20-year cumulative incidence of breast cancer was 11.3% (95% CI, 10.7%-11.9%) among women with a false-positive result vs 7.3% (95% CI, 7.2%-7.5%) among those without, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.61 (95% CI, 1.54-1.68). The corresponding HRs were higher among women aged 60 to 75 years at the examination (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.80-2.26) and those with lower mammographic breast density (HR, 4.65; 95% CI, 2.61-8.29). In addition, breast cancer risk was higher for women who underwent a biopsy at the recall (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.63-1.92) than for those without a biopsy (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.43-1.60). Cancers after a false-positive result were more likely to be detected on the ipsilateral side of the false-positive result (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.81-2.04) and were more common during the first 4 years of follow-up (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 2.33-2.85 during the first 2 years; HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.76-2.12 at >2 to 4 years). No statistical difference was found for different tumor characteristics (except for larger tumor size). Furthermore, associated with the increased risk of breast cancer, women with a false-positive result had an 84% higher rate of breast cancer death than those without (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.57-2.15)., Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that the risk of developing breast cancer after a false-positive mammography result differs by individual characteristics and follow-up. These findings can be used to develop individualized risk-based breast cancer screening after a false-positive result.