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Background and Objectives: The complement system is known to play a role in multiple sclerosis (MS) pathogenesis. However, its contribution to disease progression remains elusive. The study investigated the role of the complement system in disability progression of patients with primary progressive MS (PPMS)., Methods: Sixty-eight patients with PPMS from 12 European MS centers were included in the study. Serum and CSF levels of a panel of complement components (CCs) were measured by multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at a baseline time point (i.e., sampling). Mean (SD) follow-up time from baseline was 9.6 (4.8) years. Only one patient (1.5%) was treated during follow-up. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions adjusted for age, sex, and albumin quotient were performed to assess the association between baseline CC levels and disability progression in short term (2 years), medium term (6 years), and long term (at the time of the last follow-up)., Results: In short term, CC played little or no role in disability progression. In medium term, an elevated serum C3a/C3 ratio was associated with a higher risk of disability progression (adjusted OR 2.30; 95% CI 1.17-6.03; p = 0.040). By contrast, increased CSF C1q levels were associated with a trend toward reduced risk of disability progression (adjusted OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.17-0.98; p = 0.054). Similarly, in long term, an elevated serum C3a/C3 ratio was associated with higher risk of disability progression (adjusted OR 1.81; 95% CI 1.09-3.40; p = 0.037), and increased CSF C1q levels predicted lower disability progression (adjusted OR 0.41; 95% CI 0.17-0.86; p = 0.025)., Discussion: Proteins involved in the activation of early complement cascades play a role in disability progression as risk (elevated serum C3a/C3 ratio) or protective (elevated CSF C1q) factors after 6 or more years of follow-up in patients with PPMS. The protective effects associated with C1q levels in CSF may be related to its neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory properties.

Background: We aimed to investigate the potential of serum biomarker levels to predict disability progression in a multicentric real-world cohort of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS)., Methods: A total of 141 patients with PPMS from 18 European MS centres were included. Disability progression was investigated using change in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score over three time intervals: baseline to 2 years, 6 years and to the last follow-up. Serum levels of neurofilament light chain (sNfL), glial fibrillar acidic protein (sGFAP) and chitinase 3-like 1 (sCHI3L1) were measured using single-molecule array assays at baseline. Correlations between biomarker levels, and between biomarkers and age were quantified using Spearman's r. Univariable and multivariable linear models were performed to assess associations between biomarker levels and EDSS change over the different time periods., Results: Median (IQR) age of patients was 52.9 (46.4-58.5) years, and 58 (41.1%) were men. Median follow-up time was 9.1 (7.0-12.6) years. Only 8 (5.7%) patients received treatment during follow-up. sNfL and sGFAP levels were moderately correlated (r=0.43) and both weakly correlated with sCHI3L1 levels (r=0.19 and r=0.17, respectively). In multivariable analyses, levels of the three biomarkers were associated with EDSS changes across all time periods. However, when analysis was restricted to non-inflammatory patients according to clinical and radiological parameters (n=64), only sCHI3L1 levels remained associated with future EDSS change., Conclusions: Levels of sNfL, sGFAP and sCHI3L1 are prognostic biomarkers associated with disability progression in patients with PPMS, being CHI3L1 findings less dependent on the inflammatory component associated with disease progression., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)