Search

Background The traditional HIV treatment cascade aims to visualise the journey of each person living with HIV from diagnosis, through initiation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to treatment success, represented by virological suppression. This representation has been a pivotal tool in highlighting and quantifying sequential gaps along the care continuum. There is longstanding recognition, however, that this may oversimplify the complexity of real-world engagement with HIV services in settings with mature high-burden HIV epidemics. A complementary 'cyclical' cascade has been proposed to represent the processes of disengagement at different points on the care continuum, with multiple pathways to re-engagement, although the feasibility of implementing this at scale has been uncertain. This study aimed to populate, refine, and explore the utility of a cyclical representation of the HIV cascade, using routine data from a high-burden HIV setting. Methods and findings This observational cohort study leveraged person-level data on all people living with HIV in the Western Cape (WC), South Africa, who accessed public health services in the 2 years prior to 31 December 2023. Programme data from disease registers were complemented by data from pharmacy and laboratory systems. At study closure, 494 370 people were included, constituting 93% of those of those estimated to be living with HIV in the province, of whom 355 104 were on ART. Substantial disengagement from HIV care was evident at every point on the cascade. Early treatment emerged as a period of higher risk of disengagement, but it did not account for the majority of disengagement. Almost all those currently disengaged had prior experience of treatment. While re-engagement was also common, overall treatment coverage had increased slowly over 5 years. The transition to dolutegravir-based regimens was dramatic with good virological outcomes for those in care, notwithstanding a clearly discernible impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on viral load (VL) testing. People currently engaged and disengaged in care are similar with respect to age and gender. Those who died or disengaged recently were previously distributed across a range of cascade statuses, and a substantial proportion of those newly initiating and re-initiating treatment were no longer on treatment 6 months later. The main limitation of this study was incomplete evidence of HIV testing, linkage to HIV-specific services, and out-of-facility mortality. Conclusions Using routine data, it was possible to populate and automate a cyclical cascade of HIV care that continuously captured the nonlinear care journeys of individuals living with HIV. In this generalised mature HIV epidemic, most people are treatment experienced. Disengagement is common and occurs at various points along the cascade, making it challenging to identify high-impact intervention opportunities. While historical HIV cascades remain valuable for target setting and service monitoring, they can be complemented with insights from more detailed cyclical cascades., Author(s): Jonathan Euvrard 1,2,*, Venessa Timmerman 1,2, Claire Marriott Keene 3, Florence Phelanyane 1,2, Alexa Heekes 1,2, Brian D. Rice 4,5, Anna Grimsrud 6, Peter Ehrenkranz 7, Andrew Boulle 1,2 [...]

: Introduction: In recent years, the expansion of HIV treatment eligibility has resulted in an increase in people with antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience prior to pregnancy but little is known about postpartum engagement in care in this population. We examined differences in disengagement from HIV care after delivery by maternal ART history before conception. Methods: We analysed data from people living with HIV (aged 15–49) in Khayelitsha, South Africa, with ≥1 live birth between April 2013 and March 2019. We described trends over time in ART history prior to estimated conception, classifying ART history groups as: (A) on ART with no disengagement (>270 days with no evidence of HIV care); (B) returned before pregnancy following disengagement; (C) restarted ART in pregnancy after disengagement; and (D) ART new start in pregnancy. We used Kaplan–Meier curves and proportional‐hazards models (adjusted for maternal age, number of pregnancy records and year of delivery) to examine the time to disengagement from delivery to 2 years postpartum. Results: Among 7309 pregnancies (in 6680 individuals), the proportion on ART (A) increased from 19% in 2013 to 41% in 2019. The proportions of those who returned (B) and restarted (C) increased from 2% to 13% and from 2% to 10%, respectively. There was a corresponding decline in the proportion of new starts (D) from 77% in 2013 to 36% in 2019. In the first recorded pregnancy per person in the study period, 26% (95% CI 25–27%) had disengaged from care by 1 year and 34% (95% CI 33–36%) by 2 years postpartum. Individuals who returned (B: aHR 2.10, 95% CI 1.70–2.60), restarted (C: aHR 3.32, 95% CI 2.70–4.09) and newly started ART (D: aHR 2.41, 95% CI 2.12–2.74) had increased hazards of postpartum disengagement compared to those on ART (A). Conclusions: There is a growing population of people with ART experience prior to conception and postpartum disengagement varies substantially by ART history. Antenatal care presents an important opportunity to understand prior ART experiences and an entry into interventions for strengthened engagement in HIV care., INTRODUCTION Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for all people living with HIV (PLHIV), major challenges persist with engagement in care [1, 2]. For pregnant PLHIV, the benefits of lifelong [...]

Objectives: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow‐up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow‐up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. Methods: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow‐up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. Results: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow‐up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained‐other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained‐WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow‐up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self‐transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non‐informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. Conclusions: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow‐up is non‐ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow‐up, whereas linkage did not identify out‐of‐facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow‐up were self‐transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lack of data on the burden and scope of congenital disorders (CDs) in South Africa undermines resource allocation and limits the ability to detect signals from potentially teratogenic pregnancy exposures. Methods: We used routine electronic data in the Western Cape Pregnancy Exposure Registry (PER) to determine the overall and individual prevalence of CD identified on neonatal surface examination at birth in the Western Cape, South Africa, 2016–2022. CD was confirmed by record review. The contribution of late (≤24 months) and antenatal diagnoses was assessed. We compared demographic and obstetric characteristics between women with/without pregnancies affected by CD. Results: Women with a viable pregnancy (>22 weeks gestation; birth weight ≥ 500 g) (n = 32,494) were included. Of 1106 potential CD identified, 56.1% were confirmed on folder review. When internal and minor CD were excluded the prevalence of major CD identified on surface examination at birth was 7.2/1000 births. When missed/late diagnoses on examination (16.8%) and ultrasound (6.8%) were included, the prevalence was 9.2/1000 births: 8.9/1000 livebirths and 21.5/1000 stillbirths. The PER did not detect 21.5% of major CD visible at birth. Older maternal age and diabetes mellitus were associated with an increased prevalence of CD. Women living with/without HIV (or the timing of antiretroviral therapy, before/after conception), hypertension or obesity did not significantly affect prevalence of CD. Conclusions: A surveillance system based on routine data successfully determined the prevalence of major CD identified on surface examination at birth at rates slightly higher than in equivalent studies. Overall rates, modeled at ~2%, are likely underestimated. Strengthening routine neonatal examination and clinical record‐keeping could improve CD ascertainment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate measurement of antenatal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in pregnancy is imperative in tracking progress towards elimination of vertical HIV transmission. In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources, enabling the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal antiretroviral coverage. We evaluated the validity of different methods for measuring ART coverage among pregnant women. Methods: We compared self-reported ART data from a 2014 antenatal survey with laboratory assay data from a sub-sample within the survey population. Thereafter, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies consolidated in the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. ART coverage estimates were triangulated with available antenatal survey estimates, aggregated programmatic data from registers recorded in the District Health Information System (DHIS) and Thembisa modelling estimates. Results: Self-reported ART in the 2014 sentinel antenatal survey (n = 1434) had high sensitivity (83.5%), specificity (94.5%) and agreement (k = 0.8) with the gold standard of laboratory analysis of ART. Based on linked routine data, ART coverage by the time of delivery in mothers of live births increased from 67.4% in 2011 to 94.7% by 2019. This pattern of increasing antenatal ART coverage was also seen in the DHIS data, and estimated by the Thembisa model, but was less consistent in the antenatal survey data. Conclusion: This study is the first in a high-burden HIV setting to compare sentinel ART surveillance data with consolidated individuated administrative data. Although self-report in survey conditions showed high validity, more recent data sources based on self-report and medical records may be uncertain with increasing ART coverage over time. Linked individuated data may offer a promising option for ART coverage estimation with greater granularity and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every person diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) needs to initiate treatment. The World Health Organization estimated that 61% of people who developed TB in 2021 were included in a TB treatment registration system. Initial loss to follow-up (ILTFU) is the loss of persons to care between diagnosis and treatment initiation/registration. LINKEDin, a quasi-experimental study, evaluated the effect of 2 interventions (hospital recording and an alert-and-response patient management intervention) in 6 subdistricts across 3 high–TB burden provinces of South Africa. Using integrated electronic reports, we identified all persons diagnosed with TB (Xpert MTB/RIF positive) in the hospital and at primary health care facilities. We prospectively determined linkage to care at 30 days after TB diagnosis. We calculated the risk of ILTFU during the baseline and intervention periods and the relative risk reduction in ILTFU between these periods. We found a relative reduction in ILTFU of 42.4% (95% CI, 28.5%–53.7%) in KwaZulu Natal (KZN) and 22.3% (95% CI, 13.3%–30.4%) in the Western Cape (WC), with no significant change in Gauteng. In KZN and the WC, the relative reduction in ILTFU appeared greater in subdistricts where the alert-and-response patient management intervention was implemented (KZN: 49.3%; 95% CI, 32.4%–62%; vs 32.2%; 95% CI, 5.4%–51.4%; and WC: 34.2%; 95% CI, 20.9%–45.3%; vs 13.4%; 95% CI, 0.7%–24.4%). We reported a notable reduction in ILTFU in 2 provinces using existing routine health service data and applying a simple intervention to trace and recall those not linked to care. TB programs need to consider ILTFU a priority and develop interventions specific to their context to ensure improved linkage to care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In low- and middle-income countries where SARS-CoV-2 testing is limited, seroprevalence studies can help describe and characterise the extent of the pandemic, as well as elucidate protection conferred by prior exposure. We conducted repeated cross-sectional serosurveys (July 2020 -November 2021) using residual samples from patients from Cape Town, South Africa, sent for routine laboratory studies for non-COVID-19 conditions. SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid antibodies and linked clinical information were used to investigate: (1) seroprevalence over time and risk factors associated with seropositivity, (2) ecological comparison of seroprevalence between subdistricts, (3) case ascertainment rates, and (4) the relative protection against COVID-19 associated with seropositivity and vaccination statuses. Among the subset sampled, seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Cape Town increased from 39.19% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37.23-41.19) in July 2020 to 67.8% (95%CI 66.31-69.25) in November 2021. Poorer communities had both higher seroprevalence and COVID-19 mortality. Only 10% of seropositive individuals had a recorded positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Using COVID-19 hospital admission and death data at the Provincial Health Data Centre, antibody positivity before the start of the Omicron BA.1 wave (28 November 2021) was strongly protective for severe disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.15; 95%CI 0.05-0.46), with additional benefit in those who were also vaccinated (aOR 0.07, 95%CI 0.01-0.35). The high population seroprevalence in Cape Town was attained at the cost of substantial COVID-19 mortality. At the individual level, seropositivity was highly protective against subsequent infections and severe COVID-19 disease. In low-income communities, where diagnostic testing capacity is often limited, surveillance systems dependent on them will underestimate the true extent of an outbreak. Rapidly conducted seroprevalence studies can play an important role in addressing this., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Hussey et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: The development of strategies to better detect and manage patients with multiple long-term conditions requires estimates of the most prevalent condition combinations. However, standard meta-analysis tools are not well suited to synthesising heterogeneous multimorbidity data., Methods: We developed a statistical model to synthesise data on associations between diseases and nationally representative prevalence estimates and applied the model to South Africa. Published and unpublished data were reviewed, and meta-regression analysis was conducted to assess pairwise associations between 10 conditions: arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, diabetes, HIV, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and tuberculosis. The national prevalence of each condition in individuals aged 15 and older was then independently estimated, and these estimates were integrated with the ORs from the meta-regressions in a statistical model, to estimate the national prevalence of each condition combination., Results: The strongest disease associations in South Africa are between COPD and asthma (OR 14.6, 95% CI 10.3 to 19.9), COPD and IHD (OR 9.2, 95% CI 8.3 to 10.2) and IHD and stroke (OR 7.2, 95% CI 5.9 to 8.4). The most prevalent condition combinations in individuals aged 15+ are hypertension and arthritis (7.6%, 95% CI 5.8% to 9.5%), hypertension and diabetes (7.5%, 95% CI 6.4% to 8.6%) and hypertension and HIV (4.8%, 95% CI 3.3% to 6.6%). The average numbers of comorbidities are greatest in the case of COPD (2.3, 95% CI 2.1 to 2.6), stroke (2.1, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.4) and IHD (1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2)., Conclusion: South Africa has high levels of HIV, hypertension, diabetes and arthritis, by international standards, and these are reflected in the most prevalent condition combinations. However, less prevalent conditions such as COPD, stroke and IHD contribute disproportionately to the multimorbidity burden, with high rates of comorbidity. This modelling approach can be used in other settings to characterise the most important disease combinations and levels of comorbidity., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)