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Vertebral osteoporotic fractures (VOF) are among the most frequent fractures in the elderly, often leading to an impaired lifestyle and a high economic burden. Although a reduced bone mass density is considered one of the main risk factors for VOF, its role in determining the fracture type, using the AO spine-DGOU classification for osteoporotic thoracolumbar fractures, as well as its progression, is unknown. The current study aimed to: (1) reveal whether the bone density of the vertebral bodies of fractured and non-fractured vertebrae predicts the type of fracture, (2) examine whether bone density is associated with the initial and progressive collapse of the vertebral body, and (3) provide predictive measures for fracture progression. The study sample included 124 patients (40 males and 84 females) with an acute osteoporotic vertebral fracture who underwent a computerized tomography scan at the time of diagnosis and an x-ray at least 3 months later. The bone density of the fractured and adjacent (non-fractured) vertebrae was measured at diagnosis. The magnitude of the collapse and the progression of the fracture over time were calculated from height measurements of the vertebral bodies at diagnosis and follow-up. Age was a significant factor in predicting the fracture type and magnitude of collapse, whereas sex and bone density were not. The severity of the fracture was involved in predicting its progression, demonstrating that severe-type fractures tended to continue to collapse after diagnosis. However, when each type was examined independently, the density of the fractured vertebra had a protective effect on fracture progression. To conclude, identifying the type of fracture is beneficial in determining patient prognosis. Furthermore, the density of the fractured vertebra, the magnitude of collapse, and patient age are valuable predictors of fracture progression., (© 2024 The Author(s). Clinical Anatomy published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Association of Clinical Anatomists and British Association of Clinical Anatomists.)