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The Tibetan Plateau (TP) serves as a crucial ecological barrier in Asia, with vegetation playing a pivotal role in the terrestrial ecosystem by facilitating energy exchange between the land and atmosphere, regulating climate, and participating in the carbon cycle. In this study, we analyze the characteristics of surface vegetation on the TP in the growing season during 1982–2018 using satellite remote sensing data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD). We investigate how these characteristics respond to climate change under different warming and humidification conditions across the TP. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values on the TP exhibit a gradual decrease from southeast to northwest during the growing season. There is a significant overall increasing trend at a climate tendency rate of 0.01·decade−1 (p < 0.01) from 1982 to 2018, characterized by a notable mutation of around 1998. Over the past 37 years, a polarized trend of vegetation was observed on the TP, with notable improvement in its central and eastern regions. However, there has been noticeable degradation in northwestern TP, specifically within the Kunlun Mountains and Qaidam Basin. (2) The climate of the TP demonstrates distinct regional disparities in terms of warming and humidification characteristics before and after 1998. During the period of 1982–1998 (1998–2018), the temperature increase is primarily concentrated in the northern (southern) TP, while precipitation increase is mainly observed in the southern and northwestern (northeastern and western) regions of the TP. (3) The responses of surface vegetation to climate factors exhibit significant variations across diverse climatic backgrounds. It is noteworthy that moisture conditions have a substantial impact on the response of vegetation to air temperature on the TP. During the period of 1982–1998, under relatively insufficient moisture conditions, a positive correlation was observed between air temperature and surface vegetation in the humid and semi-humid regions of the southeastern TP, while a negative correlation was found in the semi-arid regions of northeastern TP. During 1998–2018, as moisture conditions became relatively sufficient, surface vegetation in the semi-arid regions showed positive correlations with both temperature and precipitation. However, surface vegetation in the humid and semi-humid regions exhibited a significant negative correlation with precipitation. During this period, the synergistic effects between warm and humid climates in the semi-arid regions of northeastern TP and warm and dry climates in humid and semi-humid regions of southeastern TP substantially enhanced surface vegetation on the TP. Furthermore, our results indicate that thermal factors (air temperature) primarily influence variations in surface vegetation within the high-altitude arid region of the TP. During 1998–2018, a significant cooling trend was observed in the northwestern TP, which could potentially account for the degradation of surface vegetation in the Kunlun Mountains. The findings of this study establish a scientific basis for the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems on the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intermittency of gravity wave potential energy (GWPE) in the upper troposphere and stratosphere was investigated using the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) temperature data over three typical mountains (Tibetan Plateau, Rocky Mountains, and Andes). These typical mountains have high sea level elevations but different land–sea contrast. The probability density function (PDF) of GWPE has the independent variable of GWPE and dependent variable of occurrence probability of GWPE over a region. Our analysis showed that the PDFs of GWPE over these three mountains roughly followed lognormal distributions in all heights and months. But, the key parameters (mean value and standard deviation) of lognormal distribution varied with heights and months. Above each mountain, the two key parameters exhibited similar temporal and spatial distributions. They had the largest values around the tropopause region, smaller values in the lower stratosphere (~20–30 km), and larger values in the upper stratosphere (~35–45 km). The intermittency of GWs is represented as the ratio of the GWPE at 50th percentile to the GWPE at 90th percentile. The weakest intermittency was at ~20–30 km (above the zonal mean winds of zero) over the Tibetan Plateau and Rocky Mountains in all months and over the Andes from November to March, respectively. Generally, the weakest intermittency (~0.4) occurred in the region where the key parameters were the smallest around summer. The key parameters of lognormal distribution were dominated by annual variation over the Andes throughout the height range, 8–50 km. However, the semiannual variations are also significant in the lower stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and Rocky Mountains. The seasonal variations in the intermittency were not as obvious as those of the key parameters. The lognormal distributions and the intermittencies derived here provide an observational constraint on the tunable parameters in GW parameterization schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have emphasized the significant influence of the atmospheric heat source of the Tibetan Plateau (TPHS) on the weather and climate in East Asia, but the causes and mechanisms of the TPHS variations remain unclear. In this study, the physical linkage between the winter northern Eurasian snow depth and early summer (May and June) TPHS during 1950–2019 is investigated. Our results indicate that excessive winter northern Eurasian snow can decrease the early summer TPHS through a delayed hydrological effect. In winter, excessive northern Eurasian snow depths lead to more snowmelt and wetter local soil in early summer. The wetter soil not only reduces the surface temperatures in northern Eurasia but also cools the atmosphere in the middle and upper troposphere. This cooling enhances the meridional temperature gradient between northern and southern Eurasia, which reinforces the westerly jet stream at mid-latitudes. The strong westerly jet stream enhances the sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by increasing the near-surface wind speed. Moreover, the enhanced meridional temperature gradient generates an anticyclonic and high-pressure anomaly over the southwestern side of the TP, thus decreasing the latent heat release over the TP. Because early summer marks the beginning of the rainy season on the TP, the TPHS in early summer is dominated by latent heat released by precipitation, which means that the wetter soil caused by the excessive winter snow depth in northern Eurasia eventually weakens the TPHS in early summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) directly heats the middle tropospheric atmosphere, and accurate simulation of its surface temperature is of great concern for improving climatic prediction and projection capabilities, but climate models always exhibit a cold bias. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and in-situ observations during 1981–2014, this study elucidates the impact of the snow overestimation on the temperature simulation over the TP in CMIP6 from the perspective of local radiation processes and atmospheric circulation. On the one hand, more snow in the CMIP6 models not only directly cools the surface more, but also makes the surface receive less shortwave radiation due to the higher surface albedo, and thus has lower ground surface temperature (GST), and the more snow/albedo-low temperature process is particularly evident in the westerly region due to more uncertainty at high elevations. This process contributes 87% to the annual GST cold bias. Lower GST corresponds to less latent heat transfer and thereby lower surface air temperature (SAT). In addition, the more snow in the CMIP6 models leads to the weaker the South Asian summer monsoon and the westerlies, and brings less warm and moist air (less integrated water vapor flux), as well as less clear-sky downward longwave radiation (less water vapor amount and lower tropospheric air temperature) to the TP (contributing 58% to the annual GST cold bias). These processes will result in less both precipitation and surface latent heat loss, which offsets a 35% annual GST cold bias. Besides, the physical mechanism of snow on GST and SAT differs with season over the westerly and monsoon regions of the TP. The research highlights the importance of topography and snow parameterization schemes for optimizing CMIP6 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influence of land-surface memory effects over the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian summer monsoon has long been studied, but not quantified because of the difficulty of extracting only these effects from observational data. This study examines the impact of spring land-surface conditions, including surface air temperature (SAT) and snow cover, over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions on the early stage of the Asian summer monsoon using large-ensemble experiments produced by an atmospheric global climate model (AGCM). The results show that the above-normal SAT over and around the Tibetan Plateau in May can enhance June monsoon circulation without the sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. The physical mechanism behind this involves warmed surface air over the plateau enhancing the north–south SAT gradient, leading to strengthening the Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation. Inter-ensemble correlation analysis indicated that SAT warming over the plateau is clearly associated with upper-tropospheric anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies in May. Also, although winter land-surface signals do not persist until late spring, SAT anomalies in March tend to persist until May, explaining 10–20% of the total SAT variance in May. Interestingly, the spring SAT impacts on June monsoon circulations vary interannually, indicating that the contribution of the land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling process to interannual monsoon variability differs from year to year. Active L–A coupling years tend to coincide with cooler SSTs with anomalous low-level divergence and upper-level convergence over and around the Maritime continent, implying that SST forcing is associated with the L–A coupling strength. Specifically, in May of the developing stage of monsoon circulation, the weak Walker circulation over the equatorial and northern Indian Ocean and undeveloped monsoon circulation are suitable for the L–A coupling to influence the development of the monsoon circulation effectively. However, the well-known oceanic events, such as El Ni n ~ o, are found to be less connected with the interannual L–A coupling variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface runoff is a major component of the hydrological cycle, and it is essential for supporting the ecosystem services provided by grassland and forest ecosystems. It is of practical importance to understand the mechanisms and the dynamic processes of runoff in a river's basin, and in this study, we focused on the restored montane Pailugou Basin in the Qilian Mountains, Gansu Province, China, since its water status is extremely important for the large arid area and local economies therein. Our purpose was to determine the annual variation in the surface runoff in the Pailugou Basin because it is important to understand the influence of climate fluctuations on surface water resources and the economy of the basin. In addition, little is known about the annual variations in precipitation and runoff in this region of the world. Daily atmospheric precipitation, air temperature and runoff data from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed by the calculation of the uneven annual distribution of surface runoff, the calculation of the complete adjustment coefficient, and the vector accumulation expressed by the concentration degree. We also used the cumulative anomaly approach to determine the interannual variation trend of runoff, while the change trend was quantified by the sliding average method. Finally, we used the Mann–Kendall mutation test method and regression analysis to establish the time-series trend for precipitation and runoff and to determine the period of abrupt runoff changes. The results indicated concentrated and positive distributions of surface runoff on an annual basis, with a small degree of dispersion, and an explicit concentration of extreme flows. The relative variation ranges exhibited a decreasing trend, and the distribution of the surface runoff gradually was uniform over the year. The runoff was highest from July to September (85% of the annual total). We also determined that annual surface runoff in the basin fluctuated over the 20-year period but showed an overall increasing trend, increasing by 3.94 × 105 m3, with an average increase rate of 0.42 × 105 m3 every ten years. From 2005 to 2014, the annual runoff and the proportion of runoff in the flood season (July to September) to the annual runoff fluctuated greatly. The correlation between the runoff and precipitation was significant (r = 0.839, p < 0.05), whereas the correlation between air temperature and surface runoff was low (r = 0.421, p < 0.05). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid global warming in recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has suffered severe impacts, such as glacier retreat, glacial lake expansion, and permafrost degradation, which threaten the lives and properties of the local and downstream populations. Regional Reanalysis (RR) is vital for TP due to the limitations of observations. In this work, a 62-year (1961–2022) long atmospheric regional reanalysis with spatial resolution of 9 km (convective gray-zone scale) and temporal resolution of 1 hour over the TP (TPRR) was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, combined with re-initialization method, spectral nudging (SN), and several optimizations. TPRR is forced by ERA5 at hourly intervals. TPRR outperforms ERA5, realistically capturing climatological characteristics and seasonal variations of precipitation and T2m (air temperature at 2m above ground level). Moreover, TPRR better reproduces the frequency and intensity of precipitation, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitation. This study also quantifies the wetting trend of 0.0071 mm/year over the TP amid global warming using TPRR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake-effect snowfall (LES) occurs when cold air moves across open lakes. LES is expected to occur more frequently over the TP, due to the intensified lake expansion caused by intensified global warming. Thus, there is an urgent need to comprehensively assess the LES over the TP. Here, we revealed that the LES is triggered by westerly southward shift leading to the drop in air temperature and is positively correlated with lake area, wind speed and longitude across 12 large lakes (>300 km2) based on satellite observations and reanalysis data. Using a sensitivity model simulation, we determined that large lakes in the southern TP contributed to more than 50% of the snowfall in the downwind area in 2013. Projections indicate that the westerly-triggered LES will increase under the future RCP4.5 climate warming scenario, highlighting the importance of developing adaptive policies to address the growing risks associated with future LES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change inevitably affects vegetation growth in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Understanding the dynamics of vegetation phenology and the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change are crucial for evaluating the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Despite many relevant studies conducted in the past, there still remain research gaps concerning the dominant factors that induce changes in the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS). In this study, the spatial and temporal variations of the SOS were investigated by using a long-term series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) spanning from 2001 to 2020, and the response of the SOS to climate change and the predominant climatic factors (air temperature, LST or precipitation) affecting the SOS were explored. The main findings were as follows: the annual mean SOS concentrated on 100 DOY–170 DOY (day of a year), with a delay from east to west. Although the SOS across the entire region exhibited an advancing trend at a rate of 0.261 days/year, there were notable differences in the advancement trends of SOS among different vegetation types. In contrast to the current advancing SOS, the trend of future SOS changes shows a delayed trend. For the impacts of climate change on the SOS, winter Tmax (maximum temperature) played the dominant role in the temporal shifting of spring phenology across the TP, and its effect on SOS was negative, meaning that an increase in winter Tmax led to an earlier SOS. Considering the different conditions required for the growth of various types of vegetation, the leading factor was different for the four vegetation types. This study contributes to the understanding of the mechanism of SOS variation in the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the mechanism of climate–vegetation coverage coupled changes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, which is the most climatically sensitive and ecologically fragile region with the highest terrain in the world. This study, using multisource datasets (including satellite data and meteorological observations and reanalysis data) revealed the mutual feedback mechanisms between changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation coverage in recent decades in the Hengduan Mountains Area (HMA) of the southeastern TP and their influences on climate in the downstream region, the Sichuan Basin (SCB). There is mutual facilitation between rising air temperature and increasing vegetation coverage in the HMA, which is most significant during winter, and then during spring, but insignificant during summer and autumn. Rising temperature significantly enhances local vegetation coverage, and vegetation greening in turn heats the atmosphere via enhancing net heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere. The atmospheric heating anomaly over the HMA thickens the atmospheric column and increases upper air pressure. The high pressure anomaly disperses downstream via the westerly flow, expands across the SCB, and eventually increases the SCB temperature. This effect lasts from winter to the following spring, which may cause the maximum increasing trend of the SCB temperature and vegetation coverage in spring. These results are helpful for estimating future trends in climate and eco-environmental variations in the HMA and SCB under warming scenarios, as well as seasonal forecasting based on the connection between the HMA eco-environment and SCB climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed understanding of snow cover and its possible feedback on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of great importance. However, spatiotemporal variability in snow phenology (SP) and its influencing factors on the TP remain unclear. Based on the daily gap-free snow cover product (HMRFS-TP) with 500 m resolution, this study investigated the spatiotemporal variability in snow cover days (SCDs), snow onset date (SOD), and snow end date (SED) on the TP from 2002 to 2022. A structural equation model was used to quantify the direct and indirect effects of meteorological factors, geographical location, topography, and vegetation greenness on SP. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of SP on the TP was extremely uneven and exhibited temporal heterogeneity. SP showed vertical zonality influenced by elevation (longer SCD, earlier SOD, and later SED at higher elevations). A total of 4.62 % of the TP area had a significant decrease in SCDs, at a rate of -1.74 d yr -1. The SOD of 2.34 % of the TP area showed a significant delayed trend, at a rate of 2.90 d yr -1 , while the SED of 1.52 % of the TP area had a significant advanced trend, at a rate of at -2.49 d yr -1. We also found a strong elevation dependence for the trend in SCDs (R=-0.73). Air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and shortwave radiation can directly affect SP as well as indirectly affect it by influencing the growth of vegetation, whereas the direct effect was much greater than the indirect effect. Geographical location (latitude and longitude) and topographic conditions (elevation and slope) indirectly affected SP by modulating meteorological conditions and the growth of vegetation. Vegetation primarily influences SP by intercepting the snow and regulating the balance of the solar radiation budget. Regarding the total effect, air temperature was found to be the dominant factor. This study contributes to the understanding of snow variation in response to global warming over the past 2 decades by providing a basis for predicting future environmental and climate changes and their impacts on the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies three widely used land models (SSiB, CLM, and Noah-MP) coupled in a regional climate model to quantitatively assess their skill in preserving the imposed ± 5 °C anomalies on the initial land surface and subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) and generating the 2-m air temperature (T2m) anomalies over Tibetan Plateau (TP) during May–August. The memory of the LST/SUBT initial anomalies (surface/soil memory) is defined as the first time when time series of the differences in daily LST/SUBT cross the zero line during the simulation, with the unit of days. The memory of the T2m anomalies (T2m memory) is defined in the same way. The ensemble results indicate that the simulated soil memory generally increases with soil depth, which is consistent with the results based on the observations with statistic methods. And the soil memory is found to change rapidly with depth above ~ 0.6–0.7 m and vary slowly below it. The land models have fairly long soil memories, with the regional mean 1.0-m soil memory generally longer than 60 days. However, they have short T2m memory, with the regional means generally below 20 days. This may bring a big challenge to use the LST/SUBT approach on the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. Comparison between the three land models shows that CLM and Noah-MP have longer soil memory at the deeper layers (> ~ 0.05 m) while SSiB has longer T2m/surface memories and near-surface (≤ ~ 0.05 m) soil memory. As a result, it is difficult to say which land model is optimal for the application of the LST/SUBT approach on the S2S prediction. The T2m/surface/soil memories are various over TP, distinct among the land models, and different between the + 5 °C and − 5 °C experiment, which can be explained by both changes in the surface heat fluxes and variances in the hydrological processes over the plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results from eight regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P) initiative of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) are examined and compared with observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The RCM common domain covers most areas of East Asia with a horizontal resolution of 20–30 km. The model simulation covers a period from April to September in each year between 1991 and 2015. This study explores the RCMs' ability for seasonal climate simulation over the TP, focusing on the summer monsoon climate as part of the LS4P initiative. An intercomparison is made among eight RCMs for precipitation, surface air temperature, mid-troposphere atmospheric circulation, moisture conditions, and surface energy fluxes. It shows that the downscaling characteristics differ significantly between two major RCM types. The RegCM4 models show positive precipitation biases over the entire TP, especially over the south and southeast TP, while the WRF models mostly show both positive and negative precipitation biases over the TP with relatively high spatial correlation between simulated and observed precipitation. The multi-model ensemble mean produces overall smaller precipitation biases than most individual RCMs, with the largest biases over the southeastern TP, and smaller surface air temperature biases over most areas of the TP, especially over the central and southwestern TP. Moreover, the ensemble mean can better reproduce the inter-annual variation of precipitation and surface air temperature than most RCMs with proper magnitude. Sensitivity analyses using RegCM4 with different physics parameterizations show that varying land and cumulus schemes may induce large precipitation differences over the TP by affecting moisture and atmospheric circulation conditions in the lower and upper troposphere, respectively. Moreover, turbulent heat and radiation fluxes differences are associated with the temperature differences between different RegCM4 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau, as a major elevated heat source, plays a critical role in the Asian monsoon and global climate. Observational data revealed significant correlations between spring surface air temperature in the Tibetan Plateau and downstream summer precipitation interannual variations. Sensitivity experiments using the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) were conducted to understand the physical processes and mechanisms underlying such delayed teleconnections. A positive temperature forcing was imposed over the plateau on the surface and subsurface soil layers only at the initial conditions around May 1st, 2003. This regional forcing quickly induces positive perturbations in local air temperature and, more importantly, maintains its signal in local soil, especially deep layers, for several months. Consequently, the soil temperature serves as a charged capacitor to modulate the planetary atmospheric circulation and through Rossby wave chains to cause significant summer precipitation anomalies over broad regions. This relayed teleconnection pattern is consistent with that identified from observational data records and CWRF climate simulations during 1980–2015. Diagnostic analyses of observations and simulations suggest that the Tibetan Plateau heating significantly impacts summer East Asian monsoon climate through influencing the South Asian High and shifting the East Asian jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the observational and reanalysis datasets during the period of 1979–2018, this study examines the modulation effects of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the interdecadal change in summer surface air temperature (SAT) over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results show that the eastern TP has experienced a remarkable warming in boreal summer since 1997. In addition, the warming is associated with simultaneously enhanced westward water vapor transport and the northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) over the northeast of the TP. Further research indicates that both water vapor transport and the SWJ are modulated by the PDO and AMO on interdecadal time scales. Since the late 1990s, the PDO has changed from the positive to negative phase, while the AMO has changed from the negative to positive phase. The change in the out-of-phase combination of the PDO and AMO has resulted in a northward shift of the SWJ at 200 hPa near the northeast of the TP through the Rossby wave train originating from the northwestern Atlantic. In addition, the PDO and AMO could both affect the Rossby wave train. From the northwestern Atlantic to Eurasia, the wave train may be dominated by the PDO, while the wave train near the TP is dominated by the AMO. The anomalous anticyclone over the northeastern TP is part of the Rossby wave train, causing the northward shift of the SWJ, favoring the intrusion of the water vapor from the eastern China into the eastern TP, thus leading to the TP warming. Significance Statement: It is understood that the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be among the most sensitive regions to the global climate change. In addition, this region has warmed very rapidly in the latter half of the twentieth century. Based on the statistical analysis and dynamic diagnostics, the influences of interdecadal variations of atmospheric circulations on summer surface air temperature (SAT) over the eastern TP were analyzed for the years 1979 to 2018. We found that the eastern TP experienced an increase in summer SAT. In addition, the interdecadal change in SAT over the eastern TP is strongly affected by the water vapor transport and the subtropical westerly jet. Further analyses show that the PDO and AMO were the key factors influencing summer SAT over the eastern TP on the interdecadal time scales. The PDO and AMO could both affect the Rossby wave train. From the northwest Atlantic to Eurasia, the wave train may be dominated by the PDO, while the wave train near the TP is dominated by the AMO. In addition, the northwest Atlantic SSTs, which are dominated by the AMO, could also affect the SAT over the eastern TP by the Rossby wave train. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interrelation between grassland vegetation greenness and hydrothermal conditions on the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates a significant correlation. However, understanding the spatial patterns and the degree of this correlation, especially in relation to minimum and maximum air temperatures across various vertical gradient zones of the Plateau, necessitates further examination. Utilizing the normalized difference phenology index (NDPI) and considering four distinct hydrothermal conditions (minimum, maximum, mean temperature, and precipitation) during the growing season, an analysis was conducted on the correlation of NDPI with hydrothermal conditions across plateau elevations from 2000 to 2021. Results indicate that the correlation between vegetation greenness and hydrothermal conditions on the Tibetan Plateau grasslands is spatially varied. There is a pronounced negative correlation of greenness to maximum temperature and precipitation in the northeastern plateau, while areas exhibit stronger positive correlations to mean temperature. Additionally, as elevation increases, the positive correlation and sensitivity of alpine grassland vegetation greenness to minimum temperature significantly intensify, contrary to the effects observed with maximum temperature. The correlations between greenness and mean temperature in relation to elevational changes primarily exhibit a unimodal pattern across the Tibetan Plateau. These findings emphasize that the correlation and sensitivity of grassland vegetation greenness to hydrothermal conditions are both elevation-dependent and spatially distinct. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the response of vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau to various climatic variables is paramount to unveiling the reaction of alpine ecosystems to worldwide climate alterations. Nonetheless, the lagged and cumulative effects of various climatic variables on vegetation phenology in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau remain unclear. Therefore, based on MODIS NDVI data, we extracted vegetation phenological parameters from 2001 to 2020, including the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) and the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS), and then analyzed the response mechanisms of vegetation phenology to pre-seasonal air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau on the basis of an investigation of the lag and cumulative effects. The results showed that: (1) the multiyear mean values of the SOS mainly occurred from 120 to 160 days, accounting for 86.17% of the study area, while the multiyear mean values of the EOS were mainly concentrated between 260 and 280 days, accounting for 77.05% of the study area; (2) air temperature (T), precipitation (P), and daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures (DLST, NLST) had different degrees of lagging effects on the SOS and the EOS. Among them, the time lag effect of precipitation on vegetation phenology was more pronounced; (3) different climatic variables had distinct cumulative effects on vegetation phenology. In contrast to the insignificant cumulative effects of temperature and nighttime surface temperature on the SOS and the EOS, the cumulative effects of precipitation and daytime land surface temperature on the SOS were more pronounced than those on the EOS; (4) the SOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were mainly negatively correlated, in which the proportion of the negative correlation between SOS and NLST was up to 68.80%, and SOS and DLST were mainly positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of 73.27%, EOS and air temperature, precipitation, and NLST were positively correlated with a positive correlation proportion of EOS and precipitation of up to 71.52%, and EOS and DLST were mainly negatively correlated with a negative correlation ratio of 55.87%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and surface air temperature (SAT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been long debated, particularly in boreal summer. Based on the statistical analysis, this study reveals a significant interdecadal shift in the relationship between summer AO and the first mode of the summer SAT (SAT_EOF1) over the eastern TP in recent decades. Specifically, during 1979–1998, the correlation between summer AO and SAT_EOF1 was weak and insignificant, but during 1999–2018, it was strong and significant. Changes in the AO-related regional atmospheric circulations are responsible for this enhanced AO-SAT_EOF1 connection. During the latter period, the anomalous anticyclone related to AO has extended further westward from eastern China to the eastern TP, leading to the increased water vapor transport and prevalent descending over the eastern TP. As a result, there has been a decrease in cloud cover over the eastern TP, allowing more solar radiation to reach the ground surface and thus contributing to the enhanced AO-SAT_EOF1 linkage. Further analysis indicates that the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is a crucial factor in regulating the AO-SAT_EOF1 linkage. Since the late 1990s, the PDO has transitioned from a positive to a negative phase, playing a role in the westward extension of the AO-related anomalous anticyclone over the eastern side of the TP through the Pacific-East Asian (PEA) teleconnection. Finally, the model simulation results provide conclusive evidence that the phase transition of the PDO contributes to the unstable AO-SAT_EOF1 connection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest permafrost distribution zone at high‐altitude in the mid‐latitude region. Climate change has caused significant permafrost degradation on the TP, which has important impacts for the eco‐hydrological processes. In this study, the frost number is utilized to calculate the frost number (F) based on the air freezing/thawing index obtained from the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets. A novel method is proposed to determine the frost number threshold (Ft) for diagnosing permafrost distribution. Then the simulated permafrost distribution maps are compared with the existing permafrost distribution map, employing the Kappa coefficient as the measure of classification accuracy to identify the optimal Ft. Finally, the permafrost distribution on the TP under different Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios are diagnosed with the optimal Ft. Simulation results demonstrate that across all scenarios, the rates of permafrost degradation during the mid‐future period (2040–2060) remain comparable to those observed in the baseline period (2000), ranging from 33% ± 3% to 53% ± 4%. Conversely, during the far‐future (2080–2099), the permafrost degradation rates display significant variation across different scenarios, ranging from 37% ± 4% to 96% ± 3%. The profound impacts of permafrost degradation on the TP are reflected in decreasing trends in soil moisture and runoff, as well as a slower increasing trend in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) compared to other regions, indicating negative impacts on vegetation growth. Plain Language Summary: The Tibetan Plateau, the highest plateau in the world and the largest high‐altitude permafrost region, is experiencing permafrost degradation due to climate change, significantly impacting eco‐hydrological processes in this region. In this study, we used the frost number model with air temperature to simulate the distribution of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under different scenarios. The results show that permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is projected to degrade in the 21st century, especially under high‐emission scenarios. The degradation of permafrost will likely reduce soil moisture and runoff. Additionally, vegetation growth in areas with permafrost degradation is expected to be slow. These findings are of great significance for understanding permafrost changes on the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on eco‐hydrological processes. Key Points: A new method using the frost number model with Kappa coefficient is proposed to diagnose permafrost distributionPermafrost on the Tibetan Plateau will experience the least degradation (33% ± 3%) under SSP126, and the most (96% ± 3%) under SSP585 in 2080–2099Permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is anticipated to reduce soil moisture and runoff, adversely affecting vegetation growth [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LST (Land Surface Temperature) is a significant parameter that represents the ground energy balance and plays a crucial role in understanding climate change. The LST of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a direct influence on the climate and environmental changes of the TP, and it also has a significant impact on global climate and atmospheric circulation. Although there are various factors that drive the spatial and temporal distribution of LST on the TP, the primary driving forces and its seasonal variations of LST are not yet well understood. The research focuses specifically on the TP region, selecting three types of LST data, using geodetector model, to analyze the driving factors affecting the spatial pattern of LST in different seasons. The results indicate that the three factors, Air Temperature (AT), Elevation (Ele), and Permafrost Thermal Stability (PTS), have a significant influence on LST throughout all seasons, whereas other variables demonstrate varying contributions to LST depending on the season. This study contributes to the understanding of the spatial variability of surface thermal conditions and the intricate relationships between their driving factors. It also emphasizes the potential changes in these relationships throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity and direction of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) could vary in different parts of the mountain, while less attention is paid to the local EDW effect. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the T'ai-hang & Lvliang Mountains in Shanxi Province of China (TLMsx) were taken as cases to examine the relationship between EDW and the long-term trend of surface air temperature (SAT) lapse rate (SATLR). For the observed data, the intensity of regional EDW (I EDW) was estimated with linear regression model, while the SATLR was estimated with geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The long-term trend of SATLR was estimated applying the modified Theil-Sen method, and the regional average SATLR trend (k SATLR ¯) was calculated and analyzed. Both observed data and simulation experiment revealed that there was not significant difference between I EDW and − k SATLR ¯ , with a little difference caused by the noise in the SAT trends. As the SATLR trend measured the difference in the surface air warming rate within 1-km vertical distance, i.e. the intensity of EDW in a small spatial scale, in the context of climate warming, it could be used to estimate the intensity of local EDW. The SATLR trend thus provided a new perspective to study the EDW effect in the future, and facilitated the quantitative analysis on the mechanisms of EDW. • Two kinds of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) effect, positive EDW and negative EDW, are found. • The regional average surface air temperature lapse rate (SATLR) trend (k SATLR ¯) was broadly opposite to that of the intensity of EDW (I EDW). • There was not significant difference between I EDW and − k SATLR ¯. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the early spring of 2022, South Asia (SA) experienced an unprecedented and prolonged episode of compound extreme heatwaves (EHWs), which pose significant risks to both human society and ecosystems. This exceptional event broke historical records for both frequency and intensity anomalies since 1981 and could be attributed to a barotropic atmospheric regime characterized by an anomalous anticyclone. This study ascribed this record-breaking event to an exceptionally warm Tibetan Plateau (TP) atmospheric apparent heat source (TPAHS). Both the observations and the numerical experiments conducted with a linear baroclinic model revealed that the unusual TPAHS acted as an "air pump", driving the vigorous lower-level convergence and ascending motion around the TP. Abnormal TPAHS led to an increase in air temperature, subsequently elevating the height of the tropopause. This, in turn, induced a cooler upper-level and warmer lower-level thermal structure over the TP, resulting in a negative potential vorticity (PV) source near 200 hPa. As the TPAHS continued to intensify, the anomalous anticyclone strengthened and extended westward, facilitating the advection of negative PV anomalies from the TP to upstream regions. This resulted in negative PV anomalies and increased geopotential height over the SA. Furthermore, the triggered zonal circulation significantly enhanced descending motion and reduced relative vorticity, thereby strengthening the barotropic atmospheric regime over the SA. Consequently, clear skies prevailed, amplifying the solar shortwave radiation reaching the ground. This increase in surface thermal radiation warmed the near-surface air temperatures, ultimately resulting in compound EHWs on an interannual timescale. • Compound extreme heat waves (EHWs) over South Asia (SA) broke historical records in early spring 2022 • Widespread anticyclonic circulation with a barotropic atmospheric regime contributed to the compound SA EHWs • Abnormal Tibetan Plateau heating boosted the compound SA EHWs and related atmospheric anomalies on an interannual timescale [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate temperature reconstructions for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), a key area in global paleoclimatic research, can provide insights into the disputed Holocene temperature changes inferred from proxy records and model simulations. Here, we quantitatively reconstructed the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) since 12.7 cal ka BP in Chibuzhang Co using a novel terrestrial paleothermometer (the ring indices of OH-GDGTs, RI-OH). The reconstruction closely matched the record of submerged plant biomass as indicated by fatty acids, which, in Chibuzhang Co, is controlled by lake water temperature. We found that the Holocene MAAT in Chibuzhang Co was dominated by the local mean annual insolation, and influenced, to varying degrees and across different timescales, by the Laurentide Ice Sheet, westerly jet (WJ), and radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. Importantly, a cold and volatile period was observed at 5–3 cal ka BP. This period has also been widely recorded across mid-latitude regions of East Asia, suggesting that the cooling pattern was regional. This regional cooling may have been due to the combined effect of reduced local insolation and a southward shift of the WJ. Our findings thus support a region-specific interpretation of the "Holocene temperature conundrum". Since regional atmospheric circulations patterns such as WJ can have an important impact on temperature evolution, regional specificity should be taken into account in global temperature integration. • First quantitative record of temperature since the last deglaciation in the Yangtze River source area. • Marked influence of the southward shift of westerly jet on East Asian temperature evolution. • Possible drivers of the mid-Holocene low-temperature evolution revealed. • Global temperature integration studies should consider regional specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Sand wedge deposits were identified in the Early Miocene Wuqia Group. • Sand wedges occurred in braided fluvial environment under arid and cold climate. • The northern Tibetan Plateau surpassed 1000 m elevation in the Early Miocene. The uplift of the Tibet Plateau and its climatic effects have long been a hot topic in academic research. However, there is still significant controversy regarding the uplift history and related climate changes along the northern margin of the plateau. In this paper, we present sand wedge deposits from the base of the Wuqia Group (∼20 Ma) on the southwestern Tarim Basin, representing the oldest reported sand wedges in the Tibetan Plateau. A comprehensive study was conducted on lithostratigraphy, sedimentary environment, and macroscopic–microscopic features of the sand wedge deposits. The results indicate that the lithostratigraphic succession preserving the sand wedge deposits consists mainly of lenticular conglomerates and cross-bedded gravelly sandstone interbedded with medium–thin-bedded mudstone, consistent with the braided fluvial environment. The sand wedge deposits commonly exhibit a V-shape geometry and are filled with gravelly sandstone, with the gravels arranged parallel to the walls of the wedge. The clasts of the wedge-filled sandstone are well-rounded and show a unimodal grain size distribution. The quartz surfaces commonly display dish-shaped and crescent-shaped impact features, indicating an eolian origin and an arid climate. Based on the relationship between the formation temperature of modern sand wedges, the atmospheric temperature gradient, and altitude, the reconstructed paleo-elevation of the sand wedge deposits at the base of the Wuqia Group in the southwestern Tarim Basin is approximately ∼ 1000 m. These results indicate that the northern margin of the Tibet Plateau had already reached an elevation of ∼ 1000 m during the Early Miocene, forming a seasonal arid and cold climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the peak-summer of 2022, the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) in China experienced its most extreme heatwaves since 1961. Notably, a rare heatwave also occurred in the YHRB in 2013. However, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exhibited different thermal conditions during those two years. Observational analysis indicates that the 2013 and 2022 heatwaves were closely related to the local anomalous high pressure. The synergistic effects of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), South Asian high (SAH), western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and divergence of moisture, supported the formation and maintenance of the high pressure. Compared to 2013, under the synergistic control of these intensified circulation systems in 2022, which led a broader descending motion and stronger heatwaves prevailed over the YHRB. Also, the surface air temperature of TP reached its highest value in 2022, whereas it was not distinctly anomalous in 2013. Corresponding to the TP thermal anomaly, an abnormal high pressure appeared throughout the troposphere over the northern YHRB. The TP heating contributed to the northward strengthening of the SAH and EASJ, which enhanced the anomalous westerly winds to the north of the anticyclone. Moreover, the WPSH extends westward during strong TP heating years. With the cooperation of high pressure and moisture, there was an anomalous meridional circulation pattern with ascending motion in North China and descending motion in the YHRB, accompanied by reduced cloud cover and increased insolation in the YHRB, leading to further intensification of local heatwaves in 2022. This study demonstrates the significant role of TP thermal anomaly in YHRB heatwaves. • The YHRB experienced severe heatwaves in 2022 and 2013, with the TP exhibited different thermal conditions. • The synergistic control of SAH, EASJ, WPSH and moisture divergence makes 2022 YHRB heatwaves more extreme compared to 2013. • The 2022 TP thermal anomaly affects the key atmospheric circulation, causing stronger downdrafts and heatwaves than 2013. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A cloud-free MODIS-based fractional snow cover dataset was used to downscale the SD dataset. • A composite long-term daily 0.01° SD dataset over the Tibetan Plateau was developed. • The annual SD of the TP has experienced an increasing trend over the inner and edge regions but a decreasing trend over the areas between the inner and edge regions. Snowpack is highly sensitive to global warming, and an accurate understanding of the changes in snow depth (SD) is essential in analyzing the impacts of SD on both regional and global climate change. However, the application of SD datasets is limited owing to their coarse spatial resolution, especially at the basin scale. As a result, it is difficult to obtain high-quality, long-term gridded SD datasets at the kilometer scale, especially in cold and high-altitude regions. To address this issue, we combine an improved spatiotemporal downscaling algorithm and an efficient snow depletion curve method to develop a composite long-term daily 0.01° SD dataset over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by integrating an enhanced 0.05° SD dataset and a cloud-gap-filled fractional snow cover (FSC) product. The new 0.01° SD product is evaluated against the ground-observed SD data from 90 meteorological stations during 2001–2010, indicating that the new 0.01° SD product (with a root mean square error of 1.27 cm d-1 and a mean absolute error of 0.31 cm d-1) performs better than its 0.05° old version, as well as five other widely used SD products that cover the TP region. Thus, the new SD product is used to analyze the trends in the spatial SD pattern during 2000–2018. The results indicate that the annual SD is experiencing a decreasing trend over the inner and edge regions of the TP but an increasing trend over the areas between the inner and edge regions of the TP, e.g., the northern Himalayas, and upstream of the Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Mekong River. A negative correlation between the SD changes and the air temperature changes and a positive correlation between the SD changes and the snowfall changes are found in snow-dominated regions. Notably, the correlation between the SD changes and the air temperature changes is stronger than that between the SD changes and the snowfall changes, indicating that the SD is more sensitive to changes in air temperature. The new high-quality product will provide a more accurate means for understanding the SD changes in this region and a more accurate source of SD data for use in scientific studies that relate to hydrology, meteorology, and disaster evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The glacier river is highly sensitive to the temperature and precipitation change in the alpine regions. However, to what extent of this sensitivity is still not clear. In this work, a procedure to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation on water runoff components is proposed with a benchmark study at a typical temperate glacier catchment of Mingyong in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP). Firstly, we use Bayesian Monte Carlo Mixing Model to calculate contributions of different recharging sources to runoff from 213 water samples within a whole hydrological year (from August 2017 to July 2018). Hydrograph separation results show that the meltwater occupied the highest proportion in runoff from June to September (up to 58.4%) and the contribution of groundwater to runoff reached the maximum in January. Secondly, by establishing the relationships between temperature, precipitation and fractions of runoff components, we find that temperature change contributes about 78% to affecting the runoff components in Mingyong catchment at the intra-annual scale. Meanwhile, precipitation change occupies approximately 22% in influencing contributions of different endmembers to stream mainly by accelerating the melting process of glacier and accumulated snow as well as recharging the river directly. Finally, a conceptual model is developed to show the influence of temperature and precipitation on the runoff components in Mingyong catchment. The findings can not only provide essential evidence on gaining more insights into the mechanism of glacier river flow variation but also benefit for the strategy making for water resources management in alpine regions. [Display omitted] • A procedure to assess the role of temperature and precipitation on seasonal components of glacial river has been explored. • Seasonal runoff components have been calculated in Mingyong catchment (SETP). • Temperature change is the controlling factor in seasonal variations of runoff components in Mingyong catchment (about 78%). • Precipitation change contributes about 22% to seasonal variations of runoff components in Mingyong catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud properties over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and their underlying dynamics play a crucial role in the energy balance and regional water cycle of the climate system. In this review, we assess the progress in observational methods and model simulations of cloud macro- and micro-physical properties over the TP since the 1960s. We summarize the spatiotemporal patterns of cloud distribution and the main drivers, discussing the difficulties posed by cloud dynamics and their feedback into climate change on the TP. In short, we found that while the TP is warming and wetting, total cloud cover has decreased over the TP from 1960 to 2021 and from the southeast to the northwest, which typically exhibits the largest proportion of high cloud cover (HCC) and mid-high cloud cover. Meteorological elements (such as air temperature, precipitation), topography, and atmospheric circulation are the main factors influencing cloud formation. During the warm season (May–October), the intensification and northward shift of the South–Asian High and the South Asian monsoon lead to an uneven distribution of precipitation over the TP, while the Indian monsoon promotes the formation of low cloud cover. During the cold season (November–April), the northward expansion of the Hadley circulation inhibits the formation of HCC and middle cloud cover. The amount of cloud cover also affects climatic warming on the TP by radiative forcing. We end the review with a discussion of future research challenges, and propose to focus on improving the accuracy of model parameterizations to facilitate a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on the TP and the associated water cycle processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]