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Understanding the change in soil organic carbon (C) stock in a warmer climate and the effect of current land management on that stock is critical for soil and environmental conservation and climate policy. By simulation modeling, we predicted changes in Australia's soil organic C stock from 2010 to 2100. These vary from losses of 0.014–0.077 t C ha−1 year−1 between 2020 and 2045 and 0.013–0.047 t C ha−1 year−1 between 2070 and 2100, under increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and temperature. Thus, Australian soil will be a net emitter of CO2. Depending on the future socio-economic conditions, we predict that croplands will accrue as much as 0.19 t C ha−1 year−1 between 2020 and 2045 due to their management, but accrual will decrease with warming and increased emissions by 2070–2100. The gains will be too small to counteract the losses of C from the larger areas of rangelands and coastal regions that are more sensitive to a warmer climate. In principle, prudent management of the rangelands, for example, improving grazing management and regenerating biodiverse, endemic native plant communities, could sequester more C and mitigate the loss; in practice, it may be more difficult, requiring innovation, interdisciplinary science, cultural awareness and effective policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental context: Mine tailings are a mixture of fine materials obtained after crushing, processing and extracting the valuable minerals from ore. Ultramafic and mafic mine tailings have the potential to mineralise carbon, offering a solution to offset greenhouse gas emissions from the mining sector. The study revealed that the effects of wetting and drying ultramafic and mafic mine tailings under atmospheric conditions have the potential for carbon sequestration and acid mine drainage. Rationale: As the result of their carbon mineralisation potential, there is an increasing interest in using ultramafic and mafic (U+M) mine tailings as a feedstock for carbon (C) sequestration. However, little is known about the relative chemical stability of U+M minerals, and it is unclear whether acid mine drainage may be generated during weathering. Methodology: This study determined the relative stability of the constituent minerals of several U+M tailings from mines in British Columbia, Canada, and Australia using selective chemical extractions and an 18-week laboratory experiment of cycles of wetting and drying to simulate conditions that may be experienced under field conditions. Tailings were mixed with topsoil to investigate the potential use as a soil amendment. Results: Initially, the tailing sample's pH was 8.4–9.7 and decreased to 7.7–9.1 over the 18 weeks. Soil additions lowered the initial pH and converged with the tailing's pH over 18 weeks. Sequentially weathered minerals determined by X-ray diffraction were consistent with the empirical Goldich weathering sequence. Metal concentrations from inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry supported X-ray diffraction results, confirming the stability of the U+M tailings using different methods and the need for future studies on potential metal contamination. Discussion: Minor concentrations of sulfur seemed to have resulted in larger fluctuations in pH when low amounts of carbonates were present. However, reactive oxides and basic cations in the U+M tailings maintained pH above 7. Therefore, C sequestration was likely supported, although there was a slight reduction in total C content for almost all samples. This study suggests future research is required under field conditions to confirm C sequestration and to investigate the use of U+M tailings for restoration applications. Environmental context. Mine tailings are a mixture of fine materials obtained after crushing, processing and extracting the valuable minerals from ore. Ultramafic and mafic mine tailings have the potential to mineralise carbon, offering a solution to offset greenhouse gas emissions from the mining sector. The study revealed that the effects of wetting and drying ultramafic and mafic mine tailings under atmospheric conditions have the potential for carbon sequestration and acid mine drainage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]