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In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such improvements were measured were accurately capturing the intended goal, whether the numerical differences in the resulting values were significant, or whether uncertainty played a role in this study and if it should have been taken into account, was of secondary importance. Whereas probability theory, be it frequentist or Bayesian, used to be the gold standard in science before the advent of the supercomputer, it was quickly replaced in favor of black box models and sheer computing power because of their ability to handle large data sets. This evolution sadly happened at the expense of interpretability and trustworthiness. However, while people are still trying to improve the predictive power of their models, the community is starting to realize that for many applications it is not so much the exact prediction that is of importance, but rather the variability or uncertainty. The work in this dissertation tries to further the quest for a world where everyone is aware of uncertainty, of how important it is and how to embrace it instead of fearing it. A specific, though general, framework that allows anyone to obtain accurate uncertainty estimates is singled out and analysed. Certain aspects and applications of the framework -- dubbed `conformal prediction' -- are studied in detail. Whereas many approaches to uncertainty quantification make strong assumptions about the data, conformal prediction is, at the time of writing, the only framework that deserves the title `distribution-free'. No parametric assumptions have to be made and the nonparametric results also hold without having to resort to the law of large numbers in the asymptotic regime., Comment: At 339 pages, this document is a live/working version of my PhD dissertation published in 2024 by the University of Ghent (UGent)

Federated Learning (FL) has lately gained traction as it addresses how machine learning models train on distributed datasets. FL was designed for parametric models, namely Deep Neural Networks (DNNs).Thus, it has shown promise on image and text tasks. However, FL for tabular data has received little attention. Tree-Based Models (TBMs) have been considered to perform better on tabular data and they are starting to see FL integrations. In this study, we benchmark federated TBMs and DNNs for horizontal FL, with varying data partitions, on 10 well-known tabular datasets. Our novel benchmark results indicates that current federated boosted TBMs perform better than federated DNNs in different data partitions. Furthermore, a federated XGBoost outperforms all other models. Lastly, we find that federated TBMs perform better than federated parametric models, even when increasing the number of clients significantly., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables, FMEC 2023 (best paper)

Residential Load Profile (RLP) generation and prediction are critical for the operation and planning of distribution networks, particularly as diverse low-carbon technologies are increasingly integrated. This paper introduces a novel flow-based generative model, termed Full Convolutional Profile Flow (FCPFlow), which is uniquely designed for both conditional and unconditional RLP generation, and for probabilistic load forecasting. By introducing two new layers--the invertible linear layer and the invertible normalization layer--the proposed FCPFlow architecture shows three main advantages compared to traditional statistical and contemporary deep generative models: 1) it is well-suited for RLP generation under continuous conditions, such as varying weather and annual electricity consumption, 2) it shows superior scalability in different datasets compared to traditional statistical, and 3) it also demonstrates better modeling capabilities in capturing the complex correlation of RLPs compared with deep generative models.

We investigate contrastive learning in the federated setting through the lens of SimCLR and multi-view mutual information maximization. In doing so, we uncover a connection between contrastive representation learning and user verification; by adding a user verification loss to each client's local SimCLR loss we recover a lower bound to the global multi-view mutual information. To accommodate for the case of when some labelled data are available at the clients, we extend our SimCLR variant to the federated semi-supervised setting. We see that a supervised SimCLR objective can be obtained with two changes: a) the contrastive loss is computed between datapoints that share the same label and b) we require an additional auxiliary head that predicts the correct labels from either of the two views. Along with the proposed SimCLR extensions, we also study how different sources of non-i.i.d.-ness can impact the performance of federated unsupervised learning through global mutual information maximization; we find that a global objective is beneficial for some sources of non-i.i.d.-ness but can be detrimental for others. We empirically evaluate our proposed extensions in various tasks to validate our claims and furthermore demonstrate that our proposed modifications generalize to other pretraining methods., Comment: Published as a conference paper at ICLR 2024

Recent developments in adversarial machine learning have highlighted the importance of building robust AI systems to protect against increasingly sophisticated attacks. While frameworks like AI Guardian are designed to defend against these threats, they often rely on assumptions that can limit their effectiveness. For example, they may assume attacks only come from one direction or include adversarial images in their training data. Our proposal suggests a different approach to the AI Guardian framework. Instead of including adversarial examples in the training process, we propose training the AI system without them. This aims to create a system that is inherently resilient to a wider range of attacks. Our method focuses on a dynamic defense strategy using stable diffusion that learns continuously and models threats comprehensively. We believe this approach can lead to a more generalized and robust defense against adversarial attacks. In this paper, we outline our proposed approach, including the theoretical basis, experimental design, and expected impact on improving AI security against adversarial threats.

The recent embrace of machine learning (ML) in the development of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) creates serious risks to geopolitical stability and the free exchange of ideas in AI research. This topic has received comparatively little attention of late compared to risks stemming from superintelligent artificial general intelligence (AGI), but requires fewer assumptions about the course of technological development and is thus a nearer-future issue. ML is already enabling the substitution of AWS for human soldiers in many battlefield roles, reducing the upfront human cost, and thus political cost, of waging offensive war. In the case of peer adversaries, this increases the likelihood of "low intensity" conflicts which risk escalation to broader warfare. In the case of non-peer adversaries, it reduces the domestic blowback to wars of aggression. This effect can occur regardless of other ethical issues around the use of military AI such as the risk of civilian casualties, and does not require any superhuman AI capabilities. Further, the military value of AWS raises the specter of an AI-powered arms race and the misguided imposition of national security restrictions on AI research. Our goal in this paper is to raise awareness among the public and ML researchers on the near-future risks posed by full or near-full autonomy in military technology, and we provide regulatory suggestions to mitigate these risks. We call upon AI policy experts and the defense AI community in particular to embrace transparency and caution in their development and deployment of AWS to avoid the negative effects on global stability and AI research that we highlight here., Comment: 9 pages, in ICML 2024

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a general notion of uncertainty, with larger sets associated with higher degrees of uncertainty. In this work, we leverage information theory to connect conformal prediction to other notions of uncertainty. More precisely, we prove three different ways to upper bound the intrinsic uncertainty, as described by the conditional entropy of the target variable given the inputs, by combining CP with information theoretical inequalities. Moreover, we demonstrate two direct and useful applications of such connection between conformal prediction and information theory: (i) more principled and effective conformal training objectives that generalize previous approaches and enable end-to-end training of machine learning models from scratch, and (ii) a natural mechanism to incorporate side information into conformal prediction. We empirically validate both applications in centralized and federated learning settings, showing our theoretical results translate to lower inefficiency (average prediction set size) for popular CP methods.

Automatic programming has seen increasing popularity due to the emergence of tools like GitHub Copilot which rely on Large Language Models (LLMs). At the same time, automatically generated code faces challenges during deployment due to concerns around quality and trust. In this article, we study automated coding in a general sense and study the concerns around code quality, security and related issues of programmer responsibility. These are key issues for organizations while deciding on the usage of automatically generated code. We discuss how advances in software engineering such as program repair and analysis can enable automatic programming. We conclude with a forward looking view, focusing on the programming environment of the near future, where programmers may need to switch to different roles to fully utilize the power of automatic programming. Automated repair of automatically generated programs from LLMs, can help produce higher assurance code from LLMs, along with evidence of assurance

Audio recordings may provide important evidence in criminal investigations. One such case is the forensic association of the recorded audio to the recording location. For example, a voice message may be the only investigative cue to narrow down the candidate sites for a crime. Up to now, several works provide tools for closed-set recording environment classification under relatively clean recording conditions. However, in forensic investigations, the candidate locations are case-specific. Thus, closed-set tools are not applicable without retraining on a sufficient amount of training samples for each case and respective candidate set. In addition, a forensic tool has to deal with audio material from uncontrolled sources with variable properties and quality. In this work, we therefore attempt a major step towards practical forensic application scenarios. We propose a representation learning framework called EnvId, short for environment identification. EnvId avoids case-specific retraining. Instead, it is the first tool for robust few-shot classification of unseen environment locations. We demonstrate that EnvId can handle forensically challenging material. It provides good quality predictions even under unseen signal degradations, environment characteristics or recording position mismatches. Our code and datasets will be made publicly available upon acceptance., Comment: This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication

The current state-of-the-art theoretical analysis of Actor-Critic (AC) algorithms significantly lags in addressing the practical aspects of AC implementations. This crucial gap needs bridging to bring the analysis in line with practical implementations of AC. To address this, we advocate for considering the MMCLG criteria: \textbf{M}ulti-layer neural network parametrization for actor/critic, \textbf{M}arkovian sampling, \textbf{C}ontinuous state-action spaces, the performance of the \textbf{L}ast iterate, and \textbf{G}lobal optimality. These aspects are practically significant and have been largely overlooked in existing theoretical analyses of AC algorithms. In this work, we address these gaps by providing the first comprehensive theoretical analysis of AC algorithms that encompasses all five crucial practical aspects (covers MMCLG criteria). We establish global convergence sample complexity bounds of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left({\epsilon^{-3}}\right)$. We achieve this result through our novel use of the weak gradient domination property of MDP's and our unique analysis of the error in critic estimation., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2306.10486