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Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions. • Introducing national IAM into land change simulation. • Considering land-use intensities in land change simulation. • Proposing an improved TECS estimation method. • Estimating influences of land changes on China's TECS. • TECS accumulation could be improved under sustainable policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of rapid advancement in automation and increasing global warming, understanding the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on carbon emissions (CES) is a cutting-edge research topic. However, there is limited focus in existing research on the nonlinear carbon reduction effect (CRE) of AI. This paper first theoretically elaborates the dual impact mechanisms of AI on CES and illuminates the nonlinear carbon reduction mechanisms of AI. Then, this study employs panel data encompassing 30 Chinese provinces between 1997 and 2019 to empirically test the net effect of AI on CES and the nonlinear carbon reduction effect of AI through econometric models. The results are as follows: first, although AI can both reduce and increase CES, AI primarily helps decrease CES. This conclusion holds true even after considering robustness, endogeneity, and spatial heterogeneity. Secondly, relative to the central and western regions, AI has significant achievement in reducing carbon intensity and per capita CES in the eastern region. However, there is still room for improvement in terms of reducing the total CES in the eastern region. Thirdly, improving the AI development level (AIDL) can magnify the marginal CRE of AI and lead to a nonlinear CRE of AI. Lastly, even if the AIDL remains constant, improving the level of marketization, human capital, digital infrastructure, economic development, openness, and government intervention can also amplify the marginal CRE of AI and lead to a nonlinear CRE of AI. To fully harness the potential of AI for green development, concerted efforts should be directed towards enhancing the innovation and application of AI technologies with carbon reduction potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions pose a significant challenge to sustainable development, particularly for China, which is the world's largest emerging economy and is under pressure to achieve carbon neutrality and reduce emissions amid escalating human activities. The variation in economic development levels and carbon sequestration capacities among its provinces poses a significant hurdle. However, previous research has not adequately examined this dual discrepancy from the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, resulting in a lack of differentiated management of forest carbon sinks across diverse regions. Therefore, to mitigate this discrepancy, this study presents an assessment methodology that analyzes over 100 types of natural and plantation forests using forest age and biomass expansion factors. This study presents a model that can significantly support the efforts of both China and the whole world to achieve carbon neutrality through the improved management of forest carbon sinks. This approach facilitates the assessment of carbon offsets required to meet reduction targets, the development of a provincial framework for carbon intensity and sequestration, and the exploration of their potential for trading markets. Analysis is conducted using MATLAB. Key achievements of this study include the following: (1) The collection of a comprehensive carbon stock dataset for 50 natural and 57 plantation forest types in 31 provinces from 2009 to 2018, highlighting the significant role of new forests in carbon sequestration. (2) The development of a provincial carbon status scoring system that categorizes provinces as carbon-negative, carbon-balancing, or carbon-positive based on local forest sink data and carbon credit demand. (3) The formulation of the carbon intensity–carbon sink assessment (CISA) model, which suggests that provinces with middle- to upper-middle-level economies may have a prolonged need for carbon sink credits during their peak carbon phase. Furthermore, the results show that carbon trading may benefit Guangxi and Yunnan, but may also bring opportunities and risks to Hunan and Hubei. To address regional imbalances, this study advocates tailored policies: carbon-negative and carbon-balancing provinces should enhance carbon sink management, while carbon-positive provinces must focus on energy structure transformation to achieve sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of a city's green infrastructure is increasingly being driven by low-carbon innovation (LCI). However, knowledge of how LCI affects green economic efficiency (GEE) in China is largely unknown. This study investigates the spatial effects of LCI on GEE in 285 Chinese prefecture-level cities. The empirical findings show that LCI exerts significant beneficial effects on its GEE but negative effects on its neighbors. The positive direct effects on GEE are offset by negative indirect effects due to the lack of spatial linkage effect and the existence of the siphon and crowding-out effects among cities. Using a mediating effect model, we have identified three channels of LCI that affect GEE: industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and human capital. A further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impacts of LCI on GEE differ by region and city development level. Furthermore, LCI in the building, greenhouse gas treatment, transportation, and sewage and pollutant treatment categories could greatly enhance local GEE. The findings herein provide an empirical experience for accurately accessing the spatial effect of LCI on GEE, and offer a critical decision-making reference for implementing a cross-city green linkage development mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]