Search

Despite common background La Niña conditions, Australia was very dry in November 2020 and wet in November 2021. This paper aims to provide an explanation for this difference. Large-scale drivers of Australian rainfall, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Madden–Julian oscillation, were examined but did not provide obvious clues for the differences. We found that the absence (in 2020) or presence (in 2021) of an enhanced thermal wind and subtropical jet over the Australian continent contributed to the rainfall anomalies. In general, La Niña sets up warm sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, which enhances the meridional temperature gradient over the continent and hence thermal wind and subtropical jet. In November 2021, these warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with a persistent midlatitude trough, which advected cold air over the Australian continent, led to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient and subtropical jet over Australia. The enhanced jet provided favorable conditions for the development of rain-bearing weather systems across Australia. In 2020, the continent was warm, displacing the latitude of maximum meridional temperature gradient south of the continent, resulting in fewer instances of the subtropical jet over Australia, and little development of weather systems over the continent. We highlight that although La Niña tilts the odds to wetter conditions for Australia, in any given month, variability in temperatures over the continent can contribute to subtropical jet variability and resulting rainfall in ways which confound the normal expectation from La Niña. Significance Statement: Forecasts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are eagerly awaited, as the state of this climate driver has profound impacts on the likelihood of rainfall in regions around the world. While El Niño and La Niña do change rainfall likelihoods, the actual outcomes of these events are sometimes counter to expectation. This work explores one of the confounding factors to those expectations in the Australian context—the role of the meridional temperature gradient over the continent in modifying the storm track over Australia, which can disrupt the expected El Niño and La Niña teleconnections. We present case studies for two La Niña springs, highlighting that the Australian continent can help shape its own weather toward wetter or drier outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The co-occurrence of multiple hazards can either exacerbate or mitigate risks. The interrelationships between multiple hazards greatly depend on the spatiotemporal scale and can be difficult to detect from large to local scales. In this paper, we identified coastal regions worldwide where the leading tropical (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and polar (Arctic Oscillation, AO; Southern Annular Mode, SAM) modes of climate variability simultaneously modify the seasonal conditions of multiple hazards, including the near-surface wind speed and swell and wind-sea wave powers. We classified the results at the national and municipal levels, with a focus on multiple hazards simultaneously occurring in space and time. The results revealed that the ENSO modulates multiple hazards, affecting approximately 40% of coastal countries, while the polar annular modes affect approximately 30% of coastal countries. The ENSO induced a greater diversity of multiple hazards, with Asian countries (e.g., Indonesia experienced increases of + 2% in wind and + 7% in swell) and countries in the Americas (e.g., Peru exhibited increases of + 1.5% in wind and + 6% in wind-sea) the most notably affected. The SAM imposed a greater influence on swells in the eastern countries of ocean basins (+ 2.5% in Chile) than in other countries, while the influence of the AO was greater in Norway and the UK (+ 12% for wind-sea and 8% for swell). Low-lying islands exhibited notable variations in pairwise hazards between phases and seasons. Our results could facilitate the interpretation of multihazard interactions and pave the way for a wide range of potential implementations of different coastal industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guided by entering the deep sea and achieving deep marine development in marine construction, the factors hindering marine construction cannot be ignored. Strong ocean winds have a devastating impact on tasks such as ship navigation, carrier aircraft take-off and landing, naval operations and military exercises, and affect the planning of sea routes and the development of the long-distance sea. This paper uses ERA5 wind field data and key climate indices to conduct a systematic analysis of catastrophic winds in the global ocean using methods such as climate statistical analysis, the Theil–Sen trend method, Pearson correlation and contribution rate calculation. It points out the spatiotemporal distribution, variation trend, climate index correlation and contribution rate characteristics of strong winds occurrence (SWO) and hopes that the results of this study can serve as a guide for maritime route planning and provide technical assistance and decision-making support for marine development and other needs. The results show the following: The high global SWO occurs in the Southern Ocean, the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, near Taiwan, China, the Arabian Sea and other locations, with the strongest SWO in summer. The growth trend of SWO in the Southern Ocean is strongest, with decreasing regions near the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and the growth trend is reflected in all four seasons. The climate indices with the strongest correlation and highest contribution to the global SWO are AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) and EP–NP (East Pacific–North Pacific pattern) with a correlation between −0.5 and 0.5 and a contribution rate of up to −50%~50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: We investigate the associations between major Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger throughout the year. Methods: We use a composite-based approach, relating the probability of top-decile observed potential fire intensity to the positive and negative modes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, split-flow blocking and Subtropical Ridge Tasman Highs, both concurrently and at a variety of lag times. Key results: The chance of extreme fire danger increases over broad regions of the continent in response to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, the negative mode of the Southern Annular Mode, split-flow Blocking Index and Subtropical Ridge Tasman High, and Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 5, 6, 2 and 8 in Austral summer, autumn, winter and spring respectively. These relationships exist not only concurrently, but also when a climate event occurs up to 6 months ahead of the season of interest. Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of considering the influence of diverse climate drivers, at a range of temporal lag periods, in understanding and predicting extreme fire danger. Implications: The results of this study may aid in the development of effective fire management strategies and decision-making processes to mitigate the impacts of fire events in Australia. This paper explores the relationships between the major forces influencing Australian weather and climate, and the chance of severe fire seasons. The findings could be valuable in decision making and preparation for upcoming fire seasons to avoid more seasons with devastating outcomes such as the 2019–2020 Black Summer. This article belongs to the Collection Fire and Climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ornithogenic sediment may contain important paleoecological information concerning past bird population dynamics. In this paper, we analyse the distribution of n -alkanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two sedimentary profiles collected from abandoned penguin colonies at Cape Bird, Ross Island, Antarctica. The geochronology of the sediment profiles was determined using 210Pb and AMS 14C dating techniques, and spans the past 1500 years. We observe low levels of n -alkanes (0.93–2.67 μg g−1) and PAHs (20.5–46.8 ng g−1) concentrations dominated by short-chain n -alkanes, low-molecular-weight and alkyl PAHs. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) shows that the PC 1 scores for n -alkanes and PAHs are significantly correlated with the input intensity of penguin guano and penguin bioelements. Using these proxies in combination with Generalized Additive Model (GAM), we reveal that breeding penguin population growth reaches a historical peak during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) prior to 1550 CE. This growth in population size corresponds to the extent of sea ice cover and the activity of the local atmospheric-ocean circulation. Warming induced by El Niño and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, along with the expansion of ice-free zones and increased oceanic nutrient and food availability, are considered primary factors contributing to the growth of breeding penguin populations. Additionally, variations in sea ice extent and Amundsen Sea Low significantly influence penguin population dynamics. Our study suggests that n -alkanes and PAHs may be valuable organic proxies for reconstructing historical changes in breeding penguin populations, with the local sea ice extent and atmospheric-oceanic circulation exerting a major influence on Antarctic penguin population dynamics. [Display omitted] • n -Alkanes and PAHs can function as proxy indicators for historical penguin guano input. • PC 1 scores for n -alkanes and PAHs correlate with guano input intensity metrics and bioelements. • Penguin population significantly increase in mid Cape Bird during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. • Atmospheric-ocean circulation influences penguin population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic ozone hole exerts a substantial impact on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere, yet research exploring its potential influence on the Northern Hemisphere climate is limited. This study unveils a significant positive relationship between interannual variations of Antarctic total column ozone (TCO) during September–October and East Asian precipitation in the subsequent boreal winter. Specifically, ~10% of the East Asian winter precipitation variability is attributed to Antarctic TCO during September–October. Both observational data and model results indicate that the increased Antarctic TCO during September–October triggers a simultaneous meridional southern Indian Ocean tripole sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) through the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode. This SSTA pattern persists from September–November through the boreal winter, subsequently weakening the local-scale zonal-vertical circulation anomalies in the Indian Ocean. The process leads to positive outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies over the southern Marine Continent. As a result, the linear response of wind anomalies at 850 hPa over East Asia to the OLR-induced diabatic heating anomalies exhibits southwesterlies, as demonstrated by a linear baroclinic model. These anomalous winds facilitate the transport of abundant moisture from the tropics to East Asia, favoring the formation of winter precipitation. We employ the Specified-Chemistry version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to validate that the increase of September–October Antarctic ozone substantially enhances East Asian precipitation during boreal winter. Importantly, the relationship between Antarctic ozone and East Asian winter precipitation is found to be independent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode. Our findings provide a fresh insight into the prediction of the East Asian winter precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula (West Antarctica) marine ecosystem has undergone substantial changes due to climate-induced shifts in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures since the 1950s. Using 25 years of satellite data (1998-2022), this study presents evidence that phytoplankton biomass and bloom phenology in the West Antarctic Peninsula are significantly changing as a response to anthropogenic climate change. Enhanced phytoplankton biomass was observed along the West Antarctic Peninsula, particularly in the early austral autumn, resulting in longer blooms. Long-term sea ice decline was identified as the main driver enabling phytoplankton growth in early spring and autumn, in parallel with a recent intensification of the Southern Annular Mode (2010-ongoing), which was observed to influence regional variability. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the complex interplay between environmental changes and phytoplankton responses in this climatically key region of the Southern Ocean and raise important questions regarding the far-reaching consequences that these ecological changes may have on global carbon sequestration and Antarctic food webs in the future. Using 25 years of satellite data, this study presents evidence that phytoplankton biomass and bloom phenology in the West Antarctic Peninsula are significantly changing as a response to anthropogenic climate change. These findings raise important questions regarding the effect of these ecological changes on global carbon sequestration and Antarctic food webs in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, the seasonal responses of Southern Ocean (50°S–70°S) sea surface temperature (SST) to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variations are investigated in this study. The results suggest that the averaged Southern Ocean SST in austral spring and summer show a significant cooling in response to a positive SAM, while the responses in austral autumn and winter are negligible. The cooling effect is resulted from the cold water in higher latitudes and deeper oceans brought by the equatorward Ekman transport and the Ekman pumping associated with the positive SAM. Among CMIP6 models, the magnitude of the simulated cooling response connects to the climatological meridional and vertical ocean temperature gradients, and the magnitude of Ekman motion in response to SAM. In addition, the spring and summer SAM plays a more important role in modulating Southern Ocean SST in autumn and winter than the autumn and winter SAM. Plain Language Summary: Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the first leading mode of atmospheric circulation in extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has an important influence on climate. This study evaluates the seasonal response of Southern Ocean SST to SAM variations in the CMIP6 historical simulations. We found that the regional averaged Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in austral spring and summer shows significant cooling signals in response to positive SAM. The responses of mean SST over Southern Ocean in austral autumn and winter to SAM during same seasons are not significant. The strengthening in Ekman transport and Ekman pumping in response to positive SAM would bring cold water from higher latitudes and deeper ocean to ocean surface, and hence, lead to a cooling effect. In addition, the simulations with a larger climatological meridional or vertical temperature gradient and stronger Ekman movements in response to positive SAM tends to generate a stronger cooling signal over Southern Ocean driven by positive SAM. Further analysis indicates that the austral spring and summer SAM has a more significant impact on Southern Ocean SST in austral autumn and winter, which might explain why the responses of Southern Ocean SST in austral autumn and winter to simultaneous SAM are not statistically significant. Key Points: The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) show a significant cooling in response to positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in austral spring and summerThe Ekman movements associated with enhanced SAM bring cold water from higher latitudes and deeper ocean, causing cooling effectsSAM in spring and summer play a more important role in modulating the autumn and winter SST than the SAM in autumn and winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northwestern Antarctic Peninsula is an important spawning, recruitment, and overwintering ground for Antarctic krill. The region is warming rapidly, and the current impacts of climate and environmental variability on the reproductive cycle of krill remain unclear. Here, we examine the reproductive stage of female krill in the austral winter from 2012 to 2016 in relation to climate and environmental data to assess what factors influence the timing of reproductive development. We observed significant interannual variability in the degree of maturation in female krill, ranging from 48% of female krill measured at a station in 2016 to a maximum of 94% of female krill measured at a station in 2014. On average, across all five years, three-quarters of the female krill sampled were in the stage known as previtellogenesis, the point at which the onset of sexual maturity begins. The preceding spring, summer, and autumn Southern Annular Mode and the Multivariate El Niño Index explained most of the variance in the data and indicated a strong, preconditioning storm-related effect on environmental conditions leading up to winter, affecting krill maturation status at the end of the winter season. Results from our study can be used to improve krill population models that are necessary for the management of the krill fishery and for conservation at the northwestern Antarctic Peninsula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the links between elevation variability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and large‐scale climate modes. Using multiple linear regression, we quantify the time‐cumulative effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on gridded AIS elevations. Cumulative ENSO and SAM explain a median of 29% of the partial variance and up to 85% in some coastal areas. After spatial smoothing, these signals have high spatial correlation with those from GRACE gravimetry (r∼ = 0.65 each). Much of the signal is removed by a firn densification model but inter‐model differences exist especially for ENSO. At the lower parts of the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers, near their grounding line, we find the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) explains ∼90% of the observed elevation variability. There, modeled firn effects explain only a small fraction of the variability, suggesting significant height changes could be a response to climatological ice‐dynamics. Plain Language Summary: This study investigates how variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are connected to large‐scale climate patterns. We used a statistical method to measure the effects of two climate phenomena: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We found that the cumulative effects of these phenomena account for about 29% of the variations in AIS height on average, and up to 85% in some coastal areas. These patterns match well with independent data from the GRACE satellites over the same period. Applying a model that considers the accumulation of snow and its compaction into ice (firn densification) removes much of this signal, suggesting much, but not all, of the signals are related to snowfall variations. At the fronts of the rapidly changing Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers, the dominant climate phenomenon is the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which varies in strength and location. Here, the cumulative effects of the ASL changes explain about 90% of the variations in height of these glaciers, with only a small part explained by firn effects. We suggest the unexplained variability could be partly due to changes in ice flow. Key Points: Cumulative effects of large‐scale climate modes dominate detrended altimeter time series of Antarctic ice elevation 2002–2020These decadal signals have the same spatial pattern in altimeter ice height and GRACE mass time seriesThese decadal signals are largely due to surface mass balance, but ice dynamic changes may play a role in the Amundsen Sea Embayment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) strongly influences climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. The SAM index describes the phase and magnitude of the SAM and can be calculated by measuring the difference in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) between middle and high latitudes. This study investigates the effects of calculation methods and data resolution on the SAM index, and subsequent interpretations of SAM impacts and trends. We show that the normalisation step that is traditionally used in calculating the SAM index leads to substantial differences in the magnitude of the SAM index calculated at different temporal resolutions. Additionally, the equal weighting that the normalisation approach gives to MSLP variability at the middle and high southern latitudes artificially alters temperature and precipitation correlations and the interpretation of climate change trends in the SAM. These issues can be overcome by instead using a natural SAM index based on MSLP anomalies, resulting in consistent scaling and variability in the SAM index calculated at daily, monthly and annual data resolutions. The natural SAM index has improved representation of SAM impacts in the high southern latitudes, including the asymmetric (zonal wave-3) component of MSLP variability, whereas the increased weighting given to mid-latitude MSLP variability in the normalised SAM index incorporates a stronger component of tropical climate variability that is not directly associated with SAM variability. We conclude that an improved approach of calculating the SAM index from MSLP anomalies without normalisation would aid consistency across climate studies and avoid potential ambiguity in the SAM index, including SAM index reconstructions from palaeoclimate data, and thus enable more consistent interpretations of SAM trends and impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM's existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM's persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM's propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement: As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this "memory" could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets' behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal "dry" mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polynyas, areas of open water embedded within sea ice, are a key component of ocean--atmosphere interactions that act as hotspots of sea-ice production, bottom-water formation, and primary productivity. The specific drivers of polynya dynamics remain, however, elusive and coupled climate models struggle to replicate Antarctic polynya activity. Here, we leverage a 44-y time series of Antarctic sea ice to elucidate long-term trends. We identify Antarctic-wide linear increases and a hitherto undescribed cyclical pattern of polynya activity across the Ross Sea region that potentially arises from interactions between the Amundsen Sea Low and Southern Annular Mode. While their specific drivers remain unknown, identifying these emerging patterns augments our capacity to understand the processes that influence sea ice. As we enter a potentially new age of Antarctic sea ice, this advance in understanding will, in turn, lead to more accurate predictions of environmental change, and its implications for Antarctic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global surface air temperature increased by ca. 0.5 °C from the 1900s to the mid-1940s, also known as Early 20th Century Warming (ETCW). However, the ETCW started from a particularly cold phase, peaking in 1908–1911. The cold phase was global but more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and most pronounced in the Southern Ocean, raising the question of whether uncertainties in the data might play a role. Here we analyse this period based on reanalysis data and reconstructions, complemented with newly digitised ship data from 1903–1916, as well as land observations. The cooling is seen consistently in different data sets, though with some differences. Results suggest that the cooling was related to a La-Niña-like pattern in the Pacific, a cold tropical and subtropical South Atlantic, a cold extratropical South Pacific, and cool southern midlatitude land areas. The Southern Annular Mode was positive, with a strengthened Amundsen–Bellingshausen seas low, although the spread of the data products is considerable. All results point to a real climatic phenomenon as the cause of this anomaly and not a data artefact. Atmospheric model simulations are able to reproduce temperature and pressure patterns, consistent with a real and perhaps ocean-forced signal. Together with two volcanic eruptions just before and after the 1908–1911 period, the early 1900s provided a cold start into the ETCW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric blocking is a large‐amplitude, quasi‐stationary, and long‐lasting flow regime in the extratropics. To understand the physical processes governing the occurrence of atmospheric blocking, we identify that the positive phase of Baroclinic Annular Mode (BAM) increases the occurrence of blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere. As BAM can translate to regional scales, we identify an enhanced zonal flux of wave activity and reduced dispersiveness associated with high BAM states that are dynamically conducive to the occurrence of atmospheric blocking. Blocking frequency in the high BAM state almost doubles as compared to the climatology, and the enhanced occurrence of blocks is most significant within BAM‐associated wave packets. This finding suggests BAM can be employed as a new source of predictability for atmospheric blocking. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric blocking refers to a special weather pattern in which the upper‐level westerly flow becomes stuck in a certain region and wraps into a large‐amplitude, slow‐propagating, and long‐lasting wave structure. Such persistent weather pattern usually leads to extreme events in the midlatitude. However, the current forecast skill for blocking events using numerical models is still relatively poor. We aim to leverage major modes of variability of the climate system to improve our understanding and prediction skills for blocks. In this work, we quantitatively assess how a 20–30 days regularly pulsing storm pattern in the Southern Hemisphere, referred to as Baroclinic Annular Mode (BAM), can increase the occurrence of atmospheric blocking. By tracking all blocks in the Southern Hemisphere, we find that blocks tend to occur in the high BAM state, especially within the region where the BAM pattern reaches its maximum. The occurrence probability of blocking events almost doubles under a high BAM state condition. A high BAM state provides conducive dynamical environments for blocking formation. This work suggests that BAM can serve as a new source of predictability for blocking. Key Points: The occurrence of blocking events almost doubles in the intense positive phase of Baroclinic Annular Mode (BAM)The intense positive phase of BAM provides a conducive dynamical environment for blocking formationEnhanced blocking frequency occurs within the center of the BAM‐associated wave packets [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study, utilizing ERA5 data from 1979 to 2021, identifies a prevalent occurrence of blocking events in East Antarctica, particularly in the region extending from Wilkes Land to Dronning Maud Land. The genesis of these blocking highs is typically facilitated by the intensification of Rossby waves within the circumpolar westerlies. By classifying the circulation patterns causing the blocking events, the blocking events in East Antarctica are divided into five categories. On the western flank of the blocking high, we observe the transportation of warm and humid air into inland Antarctica, instigating regional snowfall. High precipitation levels are observed in different regions based on the specific location of the blocking high. We also demonstrate that the contribution of atmospheric blockings to total annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events increases from coastal to inland. Over the East Antarctic plateau, the blockings are responsible for at least 15% of total accumulated snowfall and 30% of extreme precipitation events. Finally, we find a significant relationship between the interannual variability in East Antarctic blocking frequency and the phase variability of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A positive phase of the SAM inhibits an increase in blocking frequency, while a negative phase favors an increase. However, the two Pacific–South American patterns (PSA-1 and PSA-2), characterized by wave trains originating in the tropical Pacific that extend across the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, do not significantly influence the interannual variability in East Antarctic blocking frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire danger poses a pressing threat to ecosystems and societies worldwide. Adequate preparation and forewarning can help reduce these threats, but these rely on accurate prediction of extreme fire danger. With the knowledge that climatic conditions contribute heavily to overall fire danger, this study evaluates the skill with which episodes of extreme fire danger in Australia can be predicted from the activity of large-scale climate driver patterns. An extremal dependence index for extreme events is used to depict the historical predictive skill of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's subseasonal climate prediction system in replicating known relationships between the probability of top-decile fire danger and climate driver states at a lead time of 2–3 weeks. Results demonstrate that the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, persistent modes of atmospheric blocking, Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation are all key for contributing to predictability of fire danger forecasts in different regions during critical fire danger periods. Northwest Australia is found to be particularly predictable, with the highest mean index differences (>0.50) when certain climate drivers are active, compared with the climatological index mean. This integrated approach offers a valuable resource for decision-making in fire-prone regions, providing greater confidence to users relying on fire danger outlooks for key management decisions, such as those involved in the sectors of national park and forest estate management, agriculture, emergency services, health and energy. Furthermore, the results highlight strengths and weaknesses in both the Australian Fire Danger Rating System and the operational climate model, contributing additional information for improving and refining future iterations of these systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into past and future polar and global environmental changes. Here we develop innovative water tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new detailed information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In the preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35 ∘ S, a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8–16.3 ∘ C, a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6 % –83.3 % , and a source 10 m wind velocity (vel10) range of 10.1 to 11.3 ms-1. These results are consistent with estimates from existing literature. Central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equatorward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways compared to coastal Antarctic precipitation. This has been attributed to a moist isentropic framework; i.e. poleward vapour transport tends to follow constant equivalent potential temperature. However, we find notable deviations from this tendency especially in the lower troposphere, likely due to radiative cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9 ∘ (300 km , averaged over Antarctica) more equatorward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equatorward moisture sources (by 2.4 ∘ , averaged over Antarctica) compared to precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source vel10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 ms-1 higher than annual mean vel10 at moisture source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. We quantified this dynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation. Overall, the innovative water tracing diagnostics enhance our understanding of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]