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Three-dimensional coseismic surface deformation fields are important for quantifying the geometric and kinematic characteristics of earthquake rupture faults. However, traditional geodetic techniques are constrained by intrinsic limitations: Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) can only extract far-field deformation fields owing to incoherence; global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) can only acquire displacement at discrete points. The recently developed optical pixel correlation technique, which is based on high-resolution remote sensing images, can acquire near-field coseismic horizontal deformation. In this study, InSAR line-of-sight (LOS) and azimuth direction far-field deformation, horizontal near-field deformation determined using optical pixel correlation based on pre- and post-earthquake GaoFen (GF)-2/7 images, and vertical deformation determined by differencing pre- and post-earthquake GF-7 digital elevation models (DEMs) were combined to comprehensively provide the three-dimensional deformation field of the 2022 Mw 6.6 Menyuan earthquake. The results show that the near-field deformation field calculated by optical pixel correlation quantified displacements distributed over the rupture fault zone, which were not available from the InSAR deformation maps. We identified significant vertical displacements of ~1–1.5 m at a bend region, which were induced by local compressive stress. The maximum uplift (>2.0 m) occurred near the epicenter, on the southern sides of the main and secondary faults along the middle segment of the ruptured Lenglongling fault. In addition, surface two-dimensional strain derived from the displacement maps calculated by optical pixel correlation revealed high strain concentration on the rupture fault zone. The method described herein provides a new tool for a better understanding of the characteristics of coseismic surface deformation and rupture patterns of faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong motion seismometer is a kind of inertial sensor, and it can record middle- to high-frequency ground accelerations. The double-integration from acceleration to displacement amplifies errors caused by tilt, rotation, hysteresis, non-linear instrument response, and noise. This leads to long-period, non-physical baseline drifts in the integrated displacements. GNSS enables the direct observation of the ground displacements, with an accuracy of several millimeters to centimeters and a sample rate of 1 Hz to 50 Hz. Combining GNSS and a strong motion seismometer, one can obtain an accurate displacement series. Typically, a Kalman filter is adopted to integrate GNSS displacements and strong motion accelerations, using the empirical values of noise uncertainty. Considering that there are significantly different errors introduced by the above-mentioned tilt, rotation, hysteresis, and non-linear instrument response at different stations or at different times at the same station, it is inappropriate to employ a fixed noise uncertainty for strong motion accelerations. In this paper, we present a Sage–Husa Kalman filter, where the noise uncertainty of strong motion acceleration is adaptively estimated, to integrate GNSS and strong motion acceleration for obtaining the displacement series. The performance of the proposed method was validated by a shake table simulation experiment and the GNSS/strong motion co-located stations collected during the 2023 Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.6 earthquake doublet in southeast Turkey. The experimental results show that the proposed method enhances the adaptability to the variation of strong motion accelerometer noise level and improves the precision of integrated displacement series. The displacement derived from the proposed method was up to 28% more accurate than those from the Kalman filter in the shake table test, and the correlation coefficient with respect to the references arrived at 0.99. The application to the earthquake event shows that the proposed method can capture seismic waveforms at a promotion of 46% and 23% in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, compared with the results of the Kalman filter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shear strength of damage zone, representing the stress threshold for rupture initiation, is a critical parameter in faulting mechanics. Despite its significance, the damage‐zone's shear strength has not been estimated in natural earthquake ruptures. Here we employed coseismic deformation and strain, kinematic slip model, and finite element modeling to determine the elastic properties and peak shear stress of coseismic damage zones along the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo earthquake. Through the analysis of the lowest shear stress resulting in surface ruptures and the highest stress without surface rupture, we constrained the strength within a range of 7–17 MPa. Our result is consistent with strength (5–16 MPa) of sandstone samples from laboratory tests, demonstrating the validity of this estimation. Although factors such as fault maturity and confining pressure influence strength variation, the strength can directly reflect the stress threshold required for macroscopic surface rupture formation in fault damage zones dominated by sandstone. Plain Language Summary: Shear strength of a fault damage zone inform us its ability to withstand shear stress before surface rupture occurs. This information often provides insights into the earthquakes rupture hazards near the Earth's surface. Natural earthquakes provide a perfect opportunity for us to address the question of "what is the shear strength of a fault damage zone." To this end, we require a set of comparative references: the utmost shear stress that a damage zone can withstand without surface rupture and the minimal one necessary for the zone to generate surface rupture. In this investigation, we studied the 2021 Maduo earthquake because it had multiple distinct surface rupture segments in some places but not in others. By comparing shear stress in these segments, we could figure out how strong the damage zones were. We used real observations and numerical simulations to estimate how much stress these damage zones can withstand. Our results indicate that, for damage zones embedded in intact sandstone with a Young's modulus of 15 GPa, its strength ranges from 7 to 17 MPa. Significantly, our study is the first to reveal the shear strength of damage zone from a nutural earthquake using geodetic data. Key Points: Shear modulus and shear stress for coseismic damage zone were determined using coseismic deformation and finite element modelEstimated shear strength from overlap range of coseismic stress between surface rupture and non‐rupture parts ranges from 7 to 17 MPaShear strength exhibits positive and negative correlations with confining pressure and fault maturity, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing the coseismic slip behaviors of earthquakes could offer a better understanding of regional crustal deformation and future seismic potential assessments. On 18 December 2023, an Mw 6.0 earthquake occurred on the Lajishan–Jishishan fault system (LJFS) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, causing serious damage and casualties. The seismogenic fault hosting this earthquake is not well constrained, as no surface rupture was identified in the field. To address this issue, in this study, we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to investigate the coseismic surface deformation of this earthquake and invert both ascending and descending line-of-sight observations to probe the seismogenic fault and its slip characteristics. The InSAR observations show up to ~6 cm surface uplift caused by the Jishishan earthquake, which is consistent with the thrust-dominated focal mechanism. A Bayesian-based dislocation modeling indicates that two fault models, with eastern and western dip orientations, could reasonably fit the InSAR observations. By calculating the coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes (∆CFS) induced by both fault models, we find that the east-dipping fault scenario could reasonably explain the aftershock distributions under the framework of stress triggering, while the west-dipping fault scenario produced a negative ∆CFS in the region of dense aftershocks. Integrating regional geological structures, we suggest that the seismogenic fault of the Jishishan earthquake, which strikes NNE with a dip of 56° to the east, may be either the Jishishan western margin fault or a secondary buried branch. The optimal finite-fault slip modeling shows that the coseismic slip was dominated by reverse slip and confined to a depth range between ~5 and 15 km. The released seismic moment is 1.61 × 1018 N·m, which is equivalent to an Mw 6.07 earthquake. While the Jishishan earthquake ruptured a fault segment of approximately 20 km, it only released a small part of the seismic moment that was accumulated along the 220 km long Lajishan–Jishishan fault system. The remaining segments of the Lajishan–Jishishan fault system still have the capability to generate moderate-to-large earthquakes in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have demonstrated the potential of satellite thermal infrared observations to detect anomalous signals preceding large earthquakes. However, the lack of well-defined precursory characteristics and inherent complexity and stochasticity of the seismicity continue to impede robust earthquake forecasts. This study investigates the potential of pre-seismic thermal anomalies, derived from five satellite-based geophysical parameters, i.e., skin temperature, air temperature, total integrated column water vapor burden, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and clear-sky OLR, as valuable indicators for global earthquake forecasts. We employed a spatially self-adaptive multiparametric anomaly identification scheme to refine these anomalies, and then estimated the posterior probability of an earthquake occurrence given observed anomalies within a Bayesian framework. Our findings reveal a promising link between thermal signatures and global seismicity, with elevated forecast probabilities exceeding 0.1 and significant probability gains in some strong earthquake-prone regions. A time series analysis indicates probability stabilization after approximately six years. While no single parameter consistently dominates, each contributes precursory information, suggesting a promising avenue for a multi-parametric approach. Furthermore, novel anomaly indices incorporating probabilistic information significantly reduce false alarms and improve anomaly recognition. Despite remaining challenges in developing dynamic short-term probabilities, rigorously testing detection algorithms, and improving ensemble forecast strategies, this study provides compelling evidence for the potential of thermal anomalies to play a key role in global earthquake forecasts. The ability to reliably estimate earthquake forecast probabilities, given the ever-present threat of destructive earthquakes, holds considerable societal and ecological importance for mitigating earthquake risk and improving preparedness strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large block‐bounding faults on the Tibetan plateau are significant geological structures that accommodate tectonic movements and accumulate stress, leading to large earthquakes. Quantifying the interseismic slip deficit rate helps to better assess the earthquake potential. We combine available InSAR (2015–2020) and interseismic GPS data to determine fault coupling along 14 major block‐bounding faults. Spatially dense InSAR measurements remarkably improve the resolution of the coupling model. Combined with a GPS‐constrained block model, we examine the performance of the inversion approach with the stress constraint and the common Laplacian smoothing based on both synthetic tests and real data. We suggest that, for continental strike‐slip faults, adding the stress constraint can mitigate unphysical coupling distributions due to unreasonable assumptions or modeling artifacts, reducing the model uncertainty and improving the accuracy of the coupling model. This is particularly useful for segments featured by a highly heterogeneous distribution of coupling along the transition zone from locking to creeping region, partially‐coupling segment, and junction zone between main and subsidiary faults. We present a large‐scale fault coupling map along the major block‐bounding faults on the northeastern and eastern Tibetan plateau, highlighting the distinct degrees of fault coupling and lateral variations. The collage of coupling maps along different faults demonstrates the kinematic features over a broad time scale during earthquake cycles ranging from early to late interseismic phases, such as the segments ruptured during the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake and the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake. Plain Language Summary: Large faults at the boundary of blocks accommodate a significant portion of the relative movement between adjacent blocks and accumulate tectonic stress during the interseismic period. Consequently, these faults have a high potential to generate large earthquakes. To evaluate the distribution of strain accumulation, we analyze InSAR (2015–2020) and interseismic GPS measurements to construct a coupling model, which tells us the extent to which two blocks are locked together and accumulate stress before the next earthquake. We focus on 14 major faults on the eastern and northeastern Tibetan plateau. The addition of the spatially dense InSAR data helps to resolve the coupling distribution in greater detail, where GPS observations are limited. We evaluate different approaches to determine fault coupling, including stress constraints and smoothing techniques. Our findings indicate that adding a stress constraint performs better than the smoothing operator and helps mitigate physically unrealistic coupling distributions in the inversion using the spatial smoothing method. The stress constraint improves the accuracy of the coupling model. Based on the stress‐constrained inversion, we present a comprehensive fault coupling map in the northeastern and eastern Tibetan plateau, highlighting the spatial variations of fault coupling, which can be used in earthquake hazard assessment. Key Points: Stress constraints can mitigate unphysical coupling distributions and reduce the uncertainty of the coupling model for continental faultsWe highlight the improvement when using stress constraints in the case of sharp coupling contrasts along the strike‐slip faultWe provide a new coupling model along 14 major block‐bounding faults on the eastern and northeastern Tibetan plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coseismic deformation field on both sides of the fault, especially the distribution and change characteristics of near-field deformation, not only provides important constraints for the fine inversion of the slip distribution model but also serves as an important basis for the anti-disruption defense of the cross-fault linear engineering facilities. In this paper, we used Sentinel-1 satellite data to obtain the coseismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake by using InSAR and offset techniques. We quantitatively compared the coseismic displacement of the three types of data: InSAR, offset, and optical images. The results show that optical images and offset provided more robust near-fault (<2 km) deformation insights than InSAR, which exhibited irregular deformation patterns due to incoherence near the fault. The maximum relative displacements for InSAR and offset observations are ~2.8 m and 4 m, respectively. Then we tested various fault slip models with different data constraints, revealing that a combined inversion of GPS, InSAR, and offset data offers superior constraints on slip distribution. This integrative approach effectively captured both shallow and deep fault slip, particularly near the fault zone. The eastern branch fault model, jointly constrained by GPS, InSAR, and offset data, is the optimal coseismic slip distribution model for the Maduo earthquake, and the maximum slip is 5.55 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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• Finite-fault slip of the 1973 M7.6 Luhuo earthquake is built from triangulation data. • 42 years of postseismic deformation has been recorded for this M > 7 earthquake. • Afterslip impacts ∼1 times seismogenic depth from fault, mainly within ∼10 yrs. • The impacts of viscoelastic relaxation & afterslip can be spatiotemporally separated. • Spatiotemporal features may guide retrieving frictional and rheological properties. Measuring surface displacements driven by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation following large earthquakes enables inferring frictional and rheological properties of Earth's outermost layers where hazardous earthquakes occur. However, the two concurrent mechanisms generate similar and intertwined surface deformations, complicating the extraction of physical information from the measurements. Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal dominance of co-evolving afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation following the 1973 Ms 7.6 Luhuo earthquake in eastern Tibet, using 42 years (1976‒2018) of fault-crossing short-baseline observations. The finite-fault slip of this M7+ earthquake was constructed from triangulation data measured in 1961‒1975. Based on the model incorporating two postseismic relaxation mechanisms and calibrated by the measurements over four decades, we show that, in the temporal domain, afterslip may produce geodetically measurable deformations (>1.5 mm/yr) in local near-field regions even 20 years after the mainshock, with spatially broader impact within ∼10 years. Viscoelastic relaxation may last for nearly six decades, imposing a broad influence for three decades. In the spatial domain, afterslip may produce deformations within ∼2 times the seismogenic depth (SD; 20 km) from the fault, but dominantly in the near-field of ∼1 times the SD. In contrast, viscoelastic relaxation may affect a much wider region reaching 200 km. While afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation collectively affected the region ∼2 times the SD from the fault in the early postseismic period, their resulting deformations gradually separated in space with time, with afterslip-induced deformation shrinking toward the fault, and surface deformation caused by viscoelastic relaxation concentrating in the mid-field, ∼2–3 times the SD from the fault. Their spatiotemporal partitioning helps better learn fault frictional properties and lithospheric rheology based on geodetic data acquired from different domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]