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Contemporary research on terrestrial carbon exchange processes is paramount for a nuanced comprehension of global and local climatic fluctuations and their interaction with anthropogenic activities. This study delves into the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation carbon exchanges within the Three Northern Protection Forest Project Area, leveraging two decades of MODIS NPP data and an innovative NEP estimation model. Our analysis highlights a generally increasing trend in Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) from 2000 to 2020, with significant growth in approximately 32.97% of the study area and slight increases in 24.18%. Notably, lower NEP values were found in desert and arid zones, whereas higher values were observed in more vegetated regions like Ningxia, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and the northeast. The study also assesses the impact of climate variables and land-use changes on NEP, identifying both negative and positive correlations in specific regions. Despite the overall positive trend towards ecological restoration and enhancement, significant uncertainties remain, emphasizing the urgent need for further research to support ecosystem resilience and sustainable management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]