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In the continuous development of the Chinese economy, the desire for common prosperity among the people has become increasingly strong. However, the complex domestic and international situations, along with the economic uncertainties post-pandemic, have introduced significant uncertainties into government economic policies. In the long term, this uncertainty has a profound impact on intra-enterprise common prosperity, affecting society at large. This paper focuses on non-financial listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2011 to 2020, examining the negative effects of economic policy uncertainty on intra-enterprise common prosperity. The results indicate that economic policy uncertainty has a significant adverse impact on intra-enterprise common prosperity, and this impact is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises, those in the growth life cycle, and companies with poor innovation capabilities and limited external support. Companies enhancing social responsibility and overall factor productivity can help mitigate these negative effects. Furthermore, in dynamic features, as the level of intra-enterprise common prosperity increases, the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty gradually diminishes, while the positive effects of overall factor productivity and corporate social responsibility on enterprises become more evident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recovery of the global economy in the aftermath of COVID-19 faces enormous challenges. Ensuring stable income growth of the population has become an important means for developing countries to ensure sustained economic development. Raising the overall income of the population is a public initiative that benefits all citizens; therefore, governments of developing countries should promote the implementation of relevant public policies and the provision of public goods to ensure that existing economic instruments can benefit the entire population. In this regard, public space, as a typical form of public good, may play an important role in promoting the benefits of existing economic policies for all residents. This paper examines how residents' use of public space contributes to their income growth through social capital. Hypotheses are tested based on an econometric analysis of 1565 questionnaires received from Chinese workers. The results show that residents' use of public space can indeed be an important way to increase their income, which is realized through the enhancement of social capital. The research presented in this paper provides a new influence variable of public space to improve residents' income. Further, it improves people's understanding of the three classical concepts—public space, social capital, and income—by establishing the logical connection and theoretical explanation of physical space, emotional space, and value space in human society. The conclusions of this paper highlight the important role of public space in urban and rural development planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green bonds are relatively new in the financial market compared to other financial securities but are useful in financing environmentally friendly projects. Just like other financial securities, green bonds are affected by various factors, such as economic policy uncertainty. Our aim of this paper was to conduct a systematic literature review of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on green bonds. We sought to do a thorough analysis of the existing literature on the assessment of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on green bonds and the techniques used in assessing the impact. Our findings showed that economic policy uncertainty had a strong impact on the green bond, with its intensity varying by location. This impact tended to be more pronounced in periods of heightened uncertainty. Also, our findings highlighted that the assessment of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on green bonds gained popularity in 2019, with China emerging as a prominent contributor. However, other countries, such as Finland, even though they had few published papers, their citations signified the production of quality papers in this field. Additionally, we found that the application of the quantile analysis method was utilized by many recent studies, which signified its importance in this field. Our findings highlighted the importance of considering appropriate techniques in assessing the impact of economic policy uncertainty on green bonds while taking into account the paper quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the economic impact of regime changes and macroeconomic indicators on debt stress in Zambia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test. A 1% short run increase in gross domestic products (GDP) increases debt stress by 3.16% and in the subsequent year lowers it by 7.21%; in the long-run the 1% GDP increases lowers debt stress by 22%. In the long-run, a 1% rise in inflation and the lending rate negatively and positively impacted debt stress levels by -1.52% and 3.90%, respectively. Short-run shocks culminated regime change had short-run adverse impact on debt stress by 3.45% in one year and in the subsequent year by -10.35%, with the variables adjusting to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 71.5%. This is the first paper to quantify the empirical effect of macroeconomic indicators and change in Presidents on debt stress, especially in Africa were the problem of the debt trap is perpetuated. The results from the study implies that to deescalate the impact of debt stress on the economy, the electorate should vote in governments that will not fall short on growth driven macroeconomic policies, making it possible for economic sustainability to prevail; and paper seeks to promote good governance and good economic policies as a premise for sustained macroeconomic stability and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) method to examine the dynamic interrelationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and stock market returns. The existing literature has not reached a consensus on the relationship between EPU and stock market returns, and there is a lack of comparative analysis of domestic and foreign EPU. Therefore, this paper is the first to incorporate domestic and foreign EPU, stock market returns, and output into a unified framework, considering the dual impact of domestic and foreign EPU shocks. Additionally, the generalizability of the results is ensured by including a large sample of nine emerging and eleven advanced economies. The main findings are as follows: First, a positive shock to foreign EPU leads to a decline in stock market returns and is stronger than the impact of domestic EPU. Second, a positive shock to stock market returns reduces both domestic and foreign EPU. Third, a rise in stock market returns promotes domestic output growth, while increases in domestic and foreign EPU suppress domestic output growth. Finally, the United States is a net exporter of EPU rather than a net importer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study contributes to income equality (IE) literature by examining four important issues. First, the study examines the effects of foreign bank presence (FBP) on IE. Second, the paper identifies the minimum threshold level of FBP which can lead to IE. Third, the effect of economic freedom on IE was investigated. Fourth, the paper determines whether economic freedom interacts with FBP to minimise IE. The findings are based on macro data for 33 African countries from 1995 to 2020. The findings from the two-stage system generalised method of moment indicate that unconditionally, FBP reduces income inequality. Also, results from the threshold effect reveal that whilst FBP reduces income inequality, if it exceeds 52%, it may contribute to it. Additionally, the study reveals that economic freedom dampens IIE. Furthermore, economic freedom conditions FBP to reduce IE. Based on these findings, policymakers are advised to exercise caution in attracting foreign banks and to promote local financial institutions. Policymakers are also advised to implement policies to promote economic freedom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan is the property of Universitas Airlangga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

China is currently focusing on the cooperative control of air pollution and CO2 emissions, as well as the mitigation of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). By using panel data from 282 cities spanning from 2003 to 2017 and a newly constructed city-level EPU index, a spatial Durbin, two-way fixed-effects model is employed, with the aim of estimating the impact of EPU on the synergistic emissions intensity (SEI) of air pollutants and CO2. Additionally, this paper investigates the potential channels through which EPU influences SEI. It also explores how pressures related to environmental protection and economic development affect the impact of EPU on SEI. The results indicate that a unit increase in EPU will result in a rise in the SEI of local cities, adjacent cities, and total cities by 930.9%, 69,162.7%, and 70,093.6%, respectively. Moreover, the channel analysis suggests that EPU exacerbates SEI by undermining the upgrading of the industrial structure, augmenting industrial structure distortion, and escalating labor market distortion. Furthermore, the effect of EPU on SEI may be lessened by an increase in environmental protection pressure, while an increase in economic development pressure may exert a positive influence. Finally, this paper concludes by recommending that policymakers should prioritize the maintenance and stability of economic policies, facilitate the advancement of the industrial structure, enhance the efficiency of labor resource allocation, and underscore the significance of managing urban air pollution and CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policy uncertainty has had an important impact on trade and sustainable economic development. Especially in some specific industries, uncertainty has increased dramatically. The extant related literature mainly analyzes the nexus between uncertainty and trade across different industries and focuses less on a specific industry. Using Chinese customs data on HS 8-digit products over the period of 2000–2013, this paper first investigates the impact of both foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and domestic intra-industry trade on China's mechanical and electrical product exports to 23 trading partners and applies pooled OLS regressions to conduct an empirical study. This paper finds that EPU has a significant inhibition effect on mechanical and electrical product exports; conversely, intra-industry trade can both significantly promote exports and alleviate the inhibition effect of EPU. In addition, the export impact of EPU varied with different trade patterns. It can significantly inhibit processing exports, while it has no effect on ordinary exports. The results of this paper indicate that in the context of increasing uncertainty, our findings could have far-reaching policy implications for China to build a new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Alternative Politics / Alternatif Politika is the property of Alternatif Politika and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Supply chain companies have merits and demerits regarding operational and economic transactional policies. The effectiveness of supply chain companies corresponds to a cumulative score on a multi-criteria and perspectives-based evaluation. In this paper, we analyse the performances and challenges of several celebrated e-commerce companies to perceive their overall impression of supply chain management. Method: A mathematical model is framed as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem with challenges as criteria and companies as alternatives. The criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) method is used in this paper to adjust weights representing the available data. The ranking of e-commerce companies is evaluated using multi-objective optimization by ratio analysis plus the full multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) method. Results: This model investigates the most dependent criteria and sub-criteria for the adaptation challenges of supply chain companies (SCCs). Furthermore, the SCCs are prioritized based on various conflicting criteria. Conclusion: Various challenges of SCCs, like logistics constraints, disruptions in supply chains, issues with technology, ethical sourcing and inconsistency between the products' availability and the pace of consumption, are considered and analysed. We amassed the difficulties as criteria and sub-criteria in a numerical process using the MCDM approach. Additionally, the sensitivity and comparative of several optimal phenomena are analysed based on distinctive combinations of challenges in the ranking arena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) is a key step in the European Semester, aimed at the coordination of the economic policies of the EU Member States to prevent excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the EU and support structural reforms. The MIP was originally envisaged as a legal tool for crisis prevention, allowing macroeconomic imbalances to be detected and then remedied, but is also used as an Early Warning System. However, the real strength of MIP indicators to predict crises has not been proved in practice and is widely contested in the literature. Aim: Fourteen scoreboard ("main") and 28 auxiliary MIP indicators are currently in use. This paper is aimed at the assessment of the power of all MIP indicators in predicting crises. Results: The added value of our research is to test the MIP's ability to predict changes in GDP, which may be considered as a proxy for the deterioration or improvement of the economic situation. Very little investigation has been done in this area so far. In addition, to our knowledge, no research papers have investigated the relevance of auxiliary MIP indicators. Our results show that only four main indicators (house price index, nominal unit labour cost index, general government sector debt, and export market shares) and another four auxiliary indicators (residential construction as percentage of GDP, activity rate, people living in households with very low work intensity, and export performance against advanced economies) seem to be able to predict the upcoming crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shadow economy's size and impact remain subjects of extensive research and debate, holding significant implications for economic policy and social welfare. In Lebanon, the ongoing crisis since 2019 has exacerbated severe economic challenges, with the national currency's collapse, bank crisis, and foreign reserve deficits. The World Bank reports Lebanon's financial deficit surpassed $72 billion, three times the GDP in 2021. Despite a drastic decline in GDP, imports have surged to near-pre-crisis levels, exacerbating economic woes and indicating a constant outflow of foreign currencies. Considering such contracting facts, this paper aims to investigate global factors influencing the shadow economy and discern their manifestations in Lebanon during financial crises. Our methodology involves a comprehensive literature review, alongside a case study approach specific to Lebanon. This dual-method strategy ensures a detailed understanding of the shadow economy's impact and the development of actionable insights for policy and economic reform. Through this approach, we seek to contribute to a nuanced understanding of Lebanon's economic landscape and provide valuable guidance for policy decisions aimed at reducing corruption, promoting transparency, and fostering a robust formal economy. The increase in the shadow economy raises the formal economy risk, as resources and activities diverted to informal channels hinder the growth and stability of the official economic sector. Although focusing on Lebanon, this analysis deepens the comprehension of the economic landscape and provides valuable guidance for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders, aiming to address the root causes of informal economic activities and promote sustainable growth in developing countries in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human capital is a nation's primary source of inner strength to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. Meanwhile, income inequality is a critical issue preventing sustainable economic growth and social transformation, especially in developing countries. This paper investigates the effect of human capital on income inequality in both the short and long term using the mean group, pooled mean group, and threshold regressions for the ASEAN-7 (including Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) from 1992 to 2018. The paper develops a theoretical linkage between human capital and income inequality by combining the learning theory and the Kuznets hypothesis. This linkage is then tested using data from the ASEAN countries. Findings from the paper indicate that human capital reduces income inequality in the short run in the ASEAN countries. However, the effect is reverted in the long run, suggesting that human capital may increase the income gap in these countries. Particularly, the inverted U-shaped relationship between human capital and income inequality is established for the ASEAN countries whose GDP per capita is lower than USD 8.2 thousand per year. In contrast, the U-shaped relationship is found for the countries with income per capital of more than USD 8.2 thousand. All these findings suggest that social policies targeting reducing income inequality should be prioritized and stay at the centre of any economic policies to achieve sustainable economic growth and development in the ASEAN countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breaking through the company's own green knowledge barriers through school-enterprise cooperation has become an important means for companies to expand market competitive advantages and environmental governance. This article uses China's non-financial listed company data from 2010 to 2021 to study the causal effect of school-enterprise cooperation on corporate green innovation. The results passed a series of robustness tests and confirmed that school enterprise cooperation can improve the level of green innovation of enterprises. This paper also uses the instrumental variable method to mitigate the causal relationship between the two. The results show that school-enterprise cooperation can still significantly improve corporate green innovation. The results of the mechanism test confirm that school-enterprise cooperation will promote corporate green innovation by reducing corporate green innovation risks and easing corporate financing constraints. At the same time, the heterogeneity analysis results show that school-enterprise cooperation has a better effect on improving green innovation for enterprises in heavily polluting industries, enterprises in years with low economic policy uncertainty, and enterprises with a high degree of government-enterprise connection. The findings of this article help to understand the intrinsic mechanism between school-enterprise cooperation and corporate green innovation, and confirm that school-enterprise cooperation can improve the climate and environmental innovation system, which has important practical significance for the construction of the industry-university-research system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the response of cryptocurrency returns to the movement of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock market volatility (VIX), as well as a few macroeconomic variables: gold price, interest rate, inflation rate, and oil price. Vector error correction model and regression model are applied to examine the linkage between these variables using data from 2015 to 2022. The analysis reveals that the selected variables have a positive and significant impact on cryptocurrency returns. This suggests that cryptocurrency can be considered a safe haven for investment. The paper also suggests a number of policies to ensure the protection of investment, control money supply and stock market instability, stabilize economic uncertainty, and systematize economic variables. This paper advocates a well-connected network and active participation of stakeholders such as government, central bank, security exchange, and financial institutions will help to streamline irrational movements and enhance the acceptability of cryptocurrencies through the framing and implementation of necessary regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid Lebanon's multifaceted economic crisis, this paper explores the intricate dynamics between political patronage networks and financial stability. Grounded in the theoretical frameworks of New Institutional Economics (NIE) and Project Management (PM), the study delves into how entrenched political elites and patronage networks have shaped Lebanon's financial system, exacerbating vulnerabilities and perpetuating the ongoing crisis. Utilizing qualitative methods including in-depth interviews, document analysis, and case studies, the research illuminates the pivotal role of political actors and their vested interests in economic policies and financial institutions. The findings reveal systemic governance failures, crony capitalism, and institutional decay as underlying causes of Lebanon's economic stress. In response, the paper proposes a comprehensive framework for governance reform that integrates insights from NIE and PM, emphasizing structured planning, accountability mechanisms, and institutional strengthening. The purpose of this study is not only to contribute to a nuanced understanding of Lebanon's challenges but also to offer actionable insights for policymakers, academics, and stakeholders to address the root causes of the crisis and pave the way for sustainable economic recovery and revitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most important macroeconomic regulation methods, fiscal and tax policy is supposed to play an active role in green economic transformation. Industrial structure optimization is a fundamental approach to address environmental problems, which has been fully demonstrated in the current studies. It is necessary to identify whether the fiscal and tax policy can promote the green economic transition through optimizing industrial structure. Taking property tax policy as an example, this paper investigates whether fiscal and tax policy promotes the green transformation of the urban economy from the perspective of industrial structure upgrading. The results show that the fiscal and tax policy implemented for a certain industry has a significant positive spillover effect on the optimization of the city's overall industrial structure. Scientific and reasonable fiscal and tax policy accelerates the intensive development of urban economy by promoting the upgrading of urban industry. These findings suggest that in terms of cities in the new and old kinetic energy transformation period, government should consider the upgrading of industrial structure in the formulation of fiscal and tax policy and attach great importance to the green development of urban economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of such CEO characteristics as gender, age, and education on the CEOs' risk-taking behavior during periods of economic policy uncertainty. The paper utilizes Execucomp, BoardEx, and Compustat data from 2005 to 2017 in order to give a novel perspective on how CEO characteristics may provide differing risk-taking positions when faced with varying levels of uncertainty. The results offer robust evidence that older CEOs generally take less risk—regardless of the level of economic policy uncertainty. However, more educated CEOs take less risk only during economically uncertain times. The results also indicate that while female CEOs tend to be younger and have lower levels of education, gender does not provide a significant difference in risk-taking behavior during periods of economic policy uncertainty. Furthermore, we do not find any significant effect of insider status or corporate governance variables on CEO risk-taking under economic policy uncertainty once gender, age, and education are controlled for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing research on how small (weak) states respond to the geopolitical rivalry of great powers often centers around the hedging strategy, where small states tend to maintain their diplomatic independence by taking nonexplicit sides and stances to better safeguard their security and interests in the face of increasing external uncertainty. This paper, however, provides another powerful way of explaining this from the perspective of nonstate actors through the changing attitudes and strategies of the Malaysian Rail Link (MRL) in the Malaysia-China East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project. This paper shows that due to the unique nature of firms, small state firms will choose to respond to external great power games with economic hedging, and performance legitimization and particularistic legitimization determine the strength of small states' economic hedging and when firms and the governments they represent choose performance as a way to enhance legitimacy, small state firms will choose to use economic soft hedging as their primary mode of response. Conversely, economic complex hedging is more pronounced when particularistic legitimization is used to enhance legitimacy. The findings of this paper also demonstrate that small state firms have a complex connection with the government. On the one hand, small state firms are the implement and influential representatives of the ruling government's foreign policy, inheriting the government's essential interest pursuits and expectations. On the other hand, the enterprise itself is also a vital interest organization. It will also formulate economic policy according to its own needs. However, the MRL shows that the Malaysian government firmly controls the tiny state firms and is an important tool and instrument for the foreign economic game of the small state government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of a circular economy (CE) is a sustainable development strategy aimed at minimising waste and maximising resource efficiency. This paper explores the transition towards a circular economy in Nigeria, providing an overview of the challenges, opportunities, and future perspectives. Nigeria is rich in natural resources and has significant economic potential. However, the country faces severe environmental, economic, and social challenges that could be met with a circular economy. Although Nigeria has abundant natural resources and great economic potential, it faces many significant environmental, economic, and social challenges that must be addressed to move to a circular economy as a viable solution. The methods used in research are based on a mixed-methods research approach; the study synthesises findings from a comprehensive literature review, case studies of Nigerian businesses adopting CE practices, and insights from a SWOT analysis conducted in consultation with experts. The conclusions of the SWOT analysis, enriched by discussions with experts, form the basis for a set of targeted recommendations. These recommendations are aimed at policymakers, business leaders, and practitioners, outlining strategic actions to overcome the identified barriers and harness the opportunities inherent in a circular economy. This paper contributes to the scholarly discourse on sustainability and serves as a practical guide for other developing countries navigating the transition to a circular economy. It underscores the urgency and feasibility of adopting circular economy principles in Nigeria, highlighting the path towards a more sustainable, efficient, and economically robust future. In the study, prospects for Nigeria to benefit from include increased resource efficiency, job creation, economic diversification, and environmental sustainability if the circular economy approach were applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 44th issue of Financial Innovation (FIN), Volume 11, No.2 (2024) features 29 papers from authors and co-authors representing 18 countries. The papers are categorized into three sub-themes: Financial Stability and Risk Management, Market Sentiment and Behavioral Finance, and Economic Policy and Its Impact. The papers cover a range of topics including energy and metal price links post-COVID-19, systemic risk in cryptocurrency portfolios, sectoral returns in the US, prediction tools for China's systemic financial crisis, governance and macroeconomic impacts on financial stability, risk management models, supply chain transparency and stock price crash risk, sentiment-based strategies for stock price forecasting, the impact of emotions on crowdfunding success, the relationship between Google Search Volume Index and market volatility, the impact of social media sentiment on stock behavior, the relationship between crude oil and refined products prices, the impact of interest rate uncertainty on oil prices, the economic and environmental impacts of the 2020 oil price shock and COVID-19 on Nigeria, the impact of construction investments in Saudi Arabia, the impact of FDI and trade on Bangladesh's economy, the influence of digitization on inflation, sectoral market risks and macroeconomic effects in Vietnam, and the effects of COVID-19 monetary policy on banking stocks. [Extracted from the article]

In the context of China's new power system, various regions have implemented policies mandating the integration of new energy sources with energy storage, while also introducing subsidies to alleviate project cost pressures. Currently, there is a lack of subsidy analysis for photovoltaic energy storage integration projects. In order to systematically assess the economic viability of photovoltaic energy storage integration projects after considering energy storage subsidies, this paper reviews relevant policies in the Chinese photovoltaic energy storage market. It analyzes the cost and revenue composition of photovoltaic energy storage integration projects, and constructs a system dynamics model for the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of such projects. Taking a specific photovoltaic energy storage project as an example, this paper measures the levelized cost of electricity and the investment return rate under different energy storage scenarios. Combining energy storage allocation ratios and internal rate of return indicators, this paper analyzes the net present value of photovoltaic energy storage integration projects under different subsidy standards. The results indicate that, while the current energy storage subsidy policies positively stimulate photovoltaic energy storage integration projects, they exhibit a limited capacity to cover energy storage investment costs, thereby failing to incentivize capital market participation in the construction of such projects. Rational allocation of energy storage capacity and optimization of corresponding subsidy policies are crucial prerequisites for enhancing the economic viability and widespread adoption of photovoltaic energy storage integration projects. This study not only aids in investment decision making for photovoltaic power stations but also contributes to the formulation of energy storage subsidy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper underscores the importance of securing strategic mineral raw materials for economic competitiveness, particularly in Germany. It highlights the dependency on imports, leading to reliance on resource-rich countries. The paper discusses the risks of this dependency, including supply disruptions from exogenous shocks. It explores national economic policies to increase supply security and presents a quantitative analysis showing that active resource policy can significantly reduce supply risk for national companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For several decades, multinational enterprises (MNEs) have offshored their manufacturing activities to low-cost countries to achieve significant productivity gains. However, changes in the relative competitiveness of countries, social effects of deindustrialization in advanced economies and the vulnerability of global value chains (GVCs) revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic have encouraged some firms, supported by governments, to "reshore" part, or all of their offshore industrial operations back to their home country. Reshoring decisions are motivated by a variety of endogenous and exogenous factors that are empirically analyzed in this paper to understand how reshoring policies implemented by governments can more effectively address the factors driving the firms' location decisions. A review of the reshoring policies implemented in Europe, the UK and the US is conducted to provide general policy recommendations regarding policy instruments, SMEs, innovation and regionalization of value chains. This paper fills a gap in the literature by connecting the micro-level supply chain management analysis of firms' reshoring drivers with the macro-level economic policy perspective on reshoring. The review of existing reshoring policies calls for an in-depth analysis by the manufacturing sector and at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen growing interest in alternative 'beyond GDP' approaches to economic development by policymakers in the UK. This paper considers the evolution in economic thinking of the current Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, from her own conceptualisation of the 'everyday economy', which broadly drew on the notion of the foundational economy, towards her more recent articulation of 'securonomics'. This marked a distinct move from a focus on reconceptualising the purpose of economic policy as supporting flourishing lives and challenging wealth extraction towards a more orthodox 'modern' supply-side emphasis on reforming policies and institutions to boost productivity and growth. This move may have reflected political calculations of the approach most likely to secure support in the run-up to the 2024 General Election. However, it arguably also represents a missed opportunity to experiment with a new economic model centred on a more inclusive political and moral economy that subverts economic policy to social and ecological goals. The paper concludes by advocating for national level support and a strategic framework to enable alternative approaches to economic development to flourish at local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic linkages among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), the green bond market, the carbon market, and the macroeconomy using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data spanning from January 2016 to December 2021. Additionally, it assesses the robustness and accuracy of the empirical results through the Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model. The findings indicate that EPU negatively affects the green bond market in the short term but has a positive impact in the medium and long term. Conversely, EPU has a positive impact on the carbon market in the short term but a negative impact in the medium and long term. Furthermore, the green bond market negatively influences the carbon market in both the short and medium to long term. These results suggest that emerging markets, such as the green bond and carbon markets, are influenced by EPU. The adverse impact of the green bond market on the carbon market, however, contributes to expediting China's attainment of its low-carbon objectives. Appropriate economic policies can play a vital role in accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. The study also reveals that the US-China trade war has expedited the development of green capital markets in China, despite its impact on the green economic transition in the country. These findings provide insights for the government and investors to formulate suitable strategies for risk mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between uncertainty indices (Geopolitical Uncertainty Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index) and cryptocurrencies. This study evaluated the behavior of cryptocurrencies with the evolution of uncertainties (GPU, EPU) on returns and volatility in terms of safe heaven as in traditional specualtive assets it increases their volaitility and reduces risk. For this purpose, this study examines the relationship between uncertanities indices, gold returns and crptocurrency by using the OLS regression for the monthly data from April 2017 to April 2022. The findings of this study indicate that the return and volatility of cryptocurrency increases. In particular, we note that the cryptocurrency market could serve as a weak hedge and safe against GEPU during a bull market; It could be considered a strong hedge, but in most cases could not serve as a safety against GPR. However, in case of Gold it is found that it serves as weak hedge against uncertainity indices and is not considered as safe heaven against GEPU and GPR. This study expands the current research on uncertainity indices and provides unique insight about the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and safe heaven. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the link between financial market movement and economic policy uncertainty indices is well-established in literature, uncertainty in the form of 'foreboding' emanating from catastrophic events has not been explored in literature. This paper explores "foreboding", which reflects uncertainty at its extreme, following the Covid-19 pandemic. Using Natural Language Processing on minute-by-minute news data, I construct two Foreboding Indices, representing 'foreboding' or 'fearful apprehension', for 28,622 Covid-related news for the period July 2020–August 2021. The impact of foreboding on financial market volatility is explored using a logistic regression model. Both the indices show a marked increase in June–July, 2020, in January 2021, April, 2021, and July–August, 2021 and have a positive impact on volatility for hourly S&P 500 Index. Understanding of foreboding sentiment is crucial for central banks looking to monitor financial market volatility. Appropriate signaling in accordance to sentiment can help central banks handle detrimental impacts of market volatility. Moreover, FI can be used for market practitioners to gauge the sentiment and take effective trading decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic zones can be powerful drivers of economic growth in developing countries. However, less is known about their distributional impact on the local society. This paper provides empirical evidence from Indonesian provinces on the relationship between economic zones and within-province income inequality. We apply fixed-effects panel estimation to province-level data for the whole of Indonesia, which we then complement with separate studies on the opening of three economic zones in three provinces using the synthetic control method. The results suggest that the above relationship is positive overall. The estimated rise in income inequality after a zone opens is, however, relatively small on average and may be short-lived. Moreover, the average estimate masks large regional differences, which suggests that the inequality implications of economic zone policies depend on local conditions. One possible explanation for the rise in inequality is that the unskilled population benefits disproportionately less from the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel large-dimensional positive definite covariance estimator for high-frequency data under a general factor model framework. We demonstrate an appealing connection between the proposed estimator and a weighted group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalized least-squares estimator. The proposed estimator improves on traditional principal component analysis by allowing for weak factors, whose signal strengths are weak relative to idiosyncratic components. Despite the presence of microstructure noises and asynchronous trading, the proposed estimator achieves guarded positive definiteness without sacrificing the convergence rate. To make our method fully operational, we provide an extended simultaneous alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm to solve the resultant constrained convex minimization problem efficiently. Empirically, we study the monthly high-frequency covariance structure of the stock constituents of the S&P 500 index from 2008 to 2016, using all traded stocks from the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ stock markets to construct the high-frequency Fama-French four and extended eleven economic factors. We further examine the out-of-sample performance of the proposed method through vast portfolio allocations, which deliver significantly reduced out-of-sample portfolio risk and enhanced Sharpe ratios. The success of our method supports the usefulness of machine learning techniques in finance. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance. Funding: This work was supported by the Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee [Grants 11500119, 11505522, 11505721, and 21504818] and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Basic Scientific Center Project [Grant 71988101], entitled as "Econometric Modelling and Economic Policy Studies", as well as NSFC [Grants 71803166 and 72173104]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.04138. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic risks in cryptocurrency markets have recently increased and have been gaining a rising number of connections with economics and financial markets; however, in this area, climate shocks could be a new kind of impact factor. In this paper, a spillover network based on a time-varying parametric-vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is constructed to measure overall cryptocurrency market extreme risks. Based on this, a second spillover network is proposed to assess the intensity of risk spillovers between extreme risks of cryptocurrency markets and uncertainties in climate conditions, economic policy, and global financial markets. The results show that extreme risks in cryptocurrency markets are highly sensitive to climate shocks, whereas uncertainties in the global financial market are the main transmitters. Dynamically, each spillover network is highly sensitive to emergent global extreme events, with a surge in overall risk exposure and risk spillovers between submarkets. Full consideration of overall market connectivity, including climate shocks, will provide a solid foundation for risk management in cryptocurrency markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Research and development (R&D) spending and innovation initiatives play a crucial role in promoting growth. However, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is a reality that cannot be avoided when making business decisions. The Visegrad Group (V4), consisting of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, is considered a regional alliance of four Central European countries with significant potential for innovation and economic development because these nations’ economies are encountering the so-called ‘middle- income trap’. Purpose of the article: The paper’s main objective is to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation performance and R&D expenditures in the Visegrad Group countries. Methods: The study used comparative panel models analysis (fixed effect, random effect, and system generalized method of moments [GMM]) between 2012 and 2021. The models include the lag periods for EPU to provide a better perspective on the short-term impact and even long-term consequences of EPU. Findings & value added: The directions of innovation output and R&D expenditures are directly related to EPU. In V4 economies, businesses may reduce their spending on R&D and innovation activities when confronted with high EPU; however, over time, the volatility of economic uncertainties is adjusted for. Additionally, the political and economic control variables increase the number of dimensions used in the models, which will motivate additional EPU studies in the field. Although EPU studies are widely accepted, our investigation shows that the topic is still not properly developed for Visegrad Group countries in relation to how EPU affects innovation activity. Another unique feature of the current study is the diversity of variables used, including the EPU lag variables, variables representing essential economic and political issues, as well as control variables, thus incorporating complex panel models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the Indian capital market using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) approach. This study also disintegrates the Global EPU (GEPU) on its components using identity functions such as up, down, and composite parts dependent on the adjustment in the heading of the EPU and GEPU and tests the linkages among these parameters and the Indian securities exchange instability. Our empirical study shows that GEPU positively and significantly impacts the Indian capital market's volatility. That indicates that the Indian capital exchange volatility will also be unstable when the global economic policy uncertainty is higher. Further, based on the dynamic directions of EPU and GEPU, our results show that, in diverse situations, directional GEPU may present differently in predicting the uncertainty in the Indian capital market. This is primarily so when EPU and GEPU climb in the same period when our approach can obtain more powerful prediction precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The minimum wage has become a standard measure in the economic and social policies of countries all over the world. The primary objective of this measure is to guarantee that workers receive a minimum wage that allows them to lead a decent life, thereby reducing inequality and poverty. However, studies on the minimum wage have not focused on assessing the effects on these dimensions but only on employment. The objective of this study is to address this research gap by analysing the effects of minimum wage increases on income inequality and poverty. To this end, firstly, a systematic review of the empirical analyses was conducted using the PRISMA methodology, with a view to ensuring that all empirical evidence was available. Secondly, the Spanish case was examined. The significant increase in minimum wage in Spain in 2019 (21.3% in real terms) presents an invaluable opportunity to utilise this event as a natural experiment to generate new evidence. A difference-in-differences approach was employed to assess the impact of this phenomenon in the period 2018–2019 with microdata from European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC for Spain). In doing so, two basic scientific contributions were made. The first one, a systematic, exhaustive, and up-to-date literature review (up to June 2024), as there is, to our knowledge, no recent systematic review of this relationship (minimum wage vs. inequality). The available evidence indicates a clear inverse relationship between the minimum wage and inequalities and poverty. The second one, regarding the Spanish case, there has been a dearth of scientific studies on this subject. Thus, this paper provides new scientific evidence demonstrating that a significant increase in the minimum wage can significantly improve the income of low-wage earners, thereby reducing income inequality and in-work poverty. Furthermore, there is evidence of a spillover effect towards income groups closer to the treatment group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constraints and incentives of the ecological policy have an important impact on the coordinated development of ecological areas. Based on the panel data of 1613 counties in 23 provinces in China from 2002 to 2019, this paper analyzes the impact of this policy on economic development using the quasi-natural experiment of the transfer payment in national key ecological functional areas (TPNKEFA) and studies the impact of the transfer payment scale on economic development based on the panel threshold model. First, the results reveal that the TPNKEFA can significantly boost economic development, compared with the control group, TPNKEFA can increase gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP by 6.14% and 10.72%, the results have been validated by some placebo tests, and the impact of this policy on economic development is sustained and effective. Second, heterogeneity results show that TPNKEFA has the greatest positive effect on the economic development in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and the least positive effect on the western region. Furthermore, the TPNKEFA facilitates local economic development primarily by increasing human capital in ecological functional areas. Third, the capital scale of TPNKEFA has the double-threshold effect on economic development, the larger the scale is, the stronger the effect is. The capital size of TPNKEFA has the greatest impact on regional economic growth in eastern region, whereas it has the weakest impact in western region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permanent grasslands (PG) feature in the European rural landscape and represent a major agricultural production resource. They support multiple non-provisioning ecosystem services (ES), including climate regulation, flood control, biodiversity, and pollination. PG are at risk of loss or degradation due to agricultural land use and land management changes. The objective of this systematic review is to identify the main economic influences shaping management and maintenance of PG, and the risks and opportunities for delivery of a range of ES. A total of 51 papers were included. Relevant policy interventions and economic drivers are identified in relation to how they shape the management of EU grasslands over time and across farming systems, countries, or biogeographic zones. A high reliance on public payments from the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), with uneven impact on mitigating PG losses and associated ES provisions, was identified, which needs to be considered in relation to ongoing CAP reform. There is a gap in the literature regarding economic tipping points for change. Future research needs to identify and map ES provisions by PG along with trade-offs and synergies, and link this to policy. There are substantive challenges to maintaining Europe's PG area and management, which must be addressed through EU-wide instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the policy package pilot implemented in Hubei Province, China, in April 2020 as a natural experiment, we use the synthetic control (SC) and synthetic difference in differences (SDID) methods to estimate the impact of the Chinese government's support policy on the economic resilience and to analyze the mechanisms by which it impacts. This study finds that the policy package has contributed to the growth of economic resilience in the pilot provinces, with the policy package increasing the average economic resilience of the pilot provinces by 0.062 compared to their potential resilience. The validity and robustness of the above conclusions are objectively confirmed by multidimensional quantitative outcomes such as placebo tests, ranking tests, and replacements in calculating resilience. The mechanism analysis shows that the investment in real estate development, the stimulus for consumption, and the core industry development are virtual channels for the policy package to promote economic resilience growth in the pilot provinces. Moreover, traditional investment in transportation fixed assets plays a minor role. This paper quantitatively corroborates the academic idea that government governance capacity affects regional economic resilience (RER), and research can provide empirical support for regional economic recovery and policy support under a major crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials and energy price indices as proxies for global inflation, analyzing data from 1997 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach: The dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is used to study the dynamic relationship between variables over a while. Findings: The results demonstrated a positive relationship between commodity prices and the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). Except for 1999–2000 and 2006–2008, the results of the energy price index model were very similar to those of the commodity price index. A predominant positive relationship is observed focusing on the connection between GEPU and the industrial material price index. The results of the pairwise Granger causality reveal a unidirectional relationship between the GEPU – the Global Commodity Price Index – and the GEPU – the Global Industrial Material Price Index. However, there is bidirectional causality between the GEPU – the Global Energy Price Index. In sum, changes in price indices can be driven by GEPU as a political factor indicating unfavorable economic conditions. Originality/value: This paper provides a deeper understanding of the role of global uncertainty in the global inflation process. It fills the gap in the literature by empirically investigating the dynamic movements of global uncertainty and the three most important groups of prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses recent research on the distribution of income and wealth as determinants of fiscal multipliers and the implications for economic policy in the Nordic countries. Economies with higher wealth inequality or lower income inequality have been shown to have more low-wealth and credit-constrained consumers. These consumers have less of an elastic labour supply response to fiscal policies that change their future income but more of an elastic response to policies that change their current income. The labour supply elasticity across the wealth distribution drives the fiscal multiplier. Nordic countries are characterised by high wealth inequality and low income inequality, two features associated with a large number of credit-constrained and low-wealth households. Thus, we expect fiscal stimulus programmes that increase consumers' current income to have more of an impact in the Nordic Region and programmes that increase future income to have less of an impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role that two key methodological choices play in the construction of dictionary-based indicators: the selection of local versus foreign newspapers, and the breadth of the press coverage (i.e. the amount of newspapers considered). The large literature in this field is almost silent about the robustness of research results to these two choices. These questions are relevant since the production of newspaper-based economic indicators is growing fast. We use as a case study the well-known economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index, taking as examples the six largest Latin American economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) and Spain. First, we develop EPU measures based on press with different levels of proximity, i.e. local versus foreign, and corroborate that they deliver broadly similar narratives. Second, we examine the macroeconomic effects of EPU shocks computed using these different sources by means of a structural Bayesian vector autoregression framework and find similar responses from the statistical point of view. These two applications should reassure researchers that they can rely on foreign sources to construct EPU indexes. This option may foster the comparability of results across countries and lay the groundwork for cross-country studies of uncertainty. Finally, we show that constructing EPU indexes based on only one newspaper, an option followed by many studies, may yield biased responses. Increasing the number of sources reduces the chances of obtaining biased responses. This suggests that it is important to maximize the breadth of the press coverage when building text-based indicators, since this would improve the robustness and credibility of results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the predictive power of economic and energy policy uncertainty indices and geopolitical risks for bitcoin's energy consumption. Three machine learning tools, SVR (scikit-learn 1.5.0),CatBoost 1.2.5 and XGboost 2.1.0, are used to evaluate the complex relationship between uncertainty indices and bitcoin's energy consumption. Results reveal that the XGboost model outperforms both SVR and CatBoost in terms of accuracy and convergence. Furthermore, the feature importance analysis performed by the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method indicates that all uncertainty indices exhibit a significant capacity to predict bitcoin's future energy consumption. Moreover, SHAP values suggest that economic policy uncertainty captures valuable predictive information from the energy uncertainty indices and geopolitical risks that affect bitcoin's energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty (EPU) on micro-level entities has garnered increasing attention in economic circles. This study examines the influence of EPU on the efficiency of investments made by China's A-share listed companies between 2016 and 2021. Using a panel fixed effect model for analysis, the research reveals that EPU has a notable adverse effect on the investment efficiency of enterprises. Furthermore, it suggests that advancements in digital finance, strong ESG performance, and enhanced entrepreneurial confidence can mitigate this negative impact effectively. The study also highlights that enterprises with lower valuation, shareholder control, limited audit reputation, and no bank connections are more vulnerable to the impact of EPU on investment efficiency compared to those with higher valuation, manager control, strong audit reputation, and bank connections. Consequently, future efforts should be directed towards enhancing the stability and relevance of economic policies, promoting digital finance, and enhancing corporate governance structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of regional economic determinants on stock market volatility especially for the BRVM Stock Exchange by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models with the data from March 2005 to September 2023. The effects of economic determinants as the USD exchange rate, CNY exchange rate, inflation rate, and average interest rate on credits on stock market volatility is tested with GARCH (1,1) models. The results show complex relationships, including an inverse relationship between stock market volatility, the USD rate, the CNY rate and AIR rate. However, inflation rate has a significant impact on stock market volatility. In the dynamic landscape of the BRVM Stock Exchange, the study offers useful insights for risk management, policy considerations, and investment decisions enabling market participants to make appropriate decisions. Moreover, the study's outcomes bear relevance to policymakers, offering guidance for shaping economic policies that may influence stock market dynamics. Additionally, investors may benefit from the research by getting a broad view of the determinants that may affect stock prices, thereby enhancing their ability to formulate sound investment strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The promises and risks of Artificial Intelligence permeate current policy statements and have attracted much attention by AI governance research. However, most analyses focus exclusively on AI policy on the national and international level, overlooking existing federal governance structures. This is surprising because AI is connected to many policy areas, where the competences are already distributed between the national and subnational level, such as research or economic policy. Addressing this gap, this paper argues that more attention should be dedicated to subnational efforts to shape AI and asks which themes are discussed in subnational AI policy documents with a case study of Germany's 16 states. Our qualitative analysis of 34 AI policy documents issued on the subnational level demonstrates that subnational efforts focus on knowledge transfer between research and industry actors, the commercialization of AI, different economic identities of the German states, and the incorporation of ethical principles. Because federal states play an active role in AI policy, analysing AI as a policy issue on different levels of government is necessary and will contribute to a better understanding of the developments and implementations of AI strategies in different national contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000–2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020–2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]