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At the beginning of 2023, the Italian former prime minister, the former health minister and 17 others including the current president of the Lombardy region were placed under investigation on suspicion of aggravated culpable epidemic in connection with the government's response at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The charges revolve around the failure by authorities to take adequate measures to prevent the spread of the virus in the Bergamo area, which experienced a significant excess of deaths during the initial outbreak. The aim of this paper is to analyse the pandemic data of Italy and the Lombardy region in the first 10 days of the pandemic, spanning from the 24th of February 2020 to the 4th of March 2020. The objective is to determine whether the use of early warning indicators could have facilitated the identification of a critical increase in infections. This identification, in turn, would have enabled the timely formulation of strategies for pandemic containment, thereby reducing the number of deaths. In conclusion, to translate our findings into practical guidelines, we propose a low-cost early warning method for infectious respiratory diseases with asymptomatic carriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highly contagious diseases, such as mumps, are a global concern as new epidemics continue to emerge, even in highly vaccinated populations. The risk of transmission and spread of these viruses is even higher for individuals who are more likely to be exposed, including healthcare workers (HCWs). In healthcare settings, both HCWs and patients are at risk of infection during the care process, potentially leading to nosocomial epidemic outbreaks. Mumps is often underestimated compared with measles and rubella, despite being milder and less likely to spread. In fact, the risk of complications following mumps infection is extremely high, especially if the disease occurs in adulthood. The measles–mumps–rubella (MMR) vaccine has been shown to be an excellent preventive measure. Unfortunately, the mumps component appears to be less effective in inducing immunity than those for measles and rubella (two-dose effectiveness of 85%, 95% and 97%, respectively). The main aim of our study was to investigate the prevalence of detectable mumps antibodies (serum IgG antibodies) in a cohort of Italian and foreign HCWs in relation to personal and occupational factors. We included in the study 468 subjects who underwent health surveillance at the Occupational Medicine Unit of the Tor Vergata Polyclinic in Rome during the period from January 2021 to March 2023. In our study, the proportion of HCWs found to be unprotected against mumps was very high (8.3%), and those found to be immune are below the WHO threshold for herd immunity (95%). From our data, it seems essential that all occupational health services carry out an accurate screening with a dose of anti-mumps antibodies to assess serological protection before starting a job, regardless of an individual's vaccination history. This approach is proving to be beneficial, accurate, as it allows all serologically non-immune individuals to be vaccinated in the workplace, including those who would be protected by their vaccination history but have lost the antibody response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]