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The impact of climate change on agricultural quality development under the constraint of China's "Double Carbon" target has been widely discussed by policy practitioners and academic theorists. This paper attempts to deconstruct the logic of how climate change affects agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in three dimensions—the structure of agricultural input factors, the change in the cropping system, and the stability of crop supply. This paper also reveals the mechanism through which biased technological progress increases agricultural TFP by weakening the magnitude of climate change and empirically tests it by using China's provincial-level data from 2000 to 2021. This study showed that average annual temperature and annual precipitation had significant negative effects on agricultural TFP, that the number of sunshine hours had a significant positive effect on agricultural TFP, and that obvious regional differences existed in the effect of climate change on agricultural TFP. Further mechanism tests revealed that biased technological progress positively moderated the effect of climate change on agricultural TFP. Based on these findings, the appropriate countermeasures for improving climate early warning mechanisms, promoting the progress of appropriate technology, and fostering new agricultural management bodies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]