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Reaching for yield, which we define as an investor preference for higher-yield bonds at a given rating or for higher-rated bonds at given yields, is associated with inflated valuation and thus negatively predicts risk-adjusted returns. Controlling for ratings, alphas are lower for higher-yield bonds, whereas, controlling for yields, alphas are lower for safer-looking, higher-rated bonds. Future bond returns are particularly low when current interest rates are low and demand from yield-reaching investors increases. These bonds experience more frequent downgrades and defaults, suggesting that they are riskier despite their high valuation. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Supplemental Material: The e-companion and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4920. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest rates have risen rapidly in many advanced economies over the last two years, leading to a monetary squeeze. The impact of this squeeze varies across countries due to factors such as private debt levels, the distribution of debt, and the average maturity of fixed rate debt. The UK, Italy, and Germany are expected to be the hardest hit economies, while Korea and Japan will be the least affected. Other indicators of the monetary squeeze include money and credit growth, changes in bank credit standards, quantitative tightening, and property price changes. Overall, the findings suggest downside risks to growth in Italy, Spain, and Australia, while supporting positive GDP forecasts for Korea and Japan. [Extracted from the article]