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The lack of a universally accepted definition of a pandemic hinders a comprehensive understanding of and effective response to these global health crises. Current definitions often lack quantitative criteria, rendering them vague and limiting their utility. Here, we propose a refined definition that considers the likelihood of susceptible individuals contracting an infectious disease that culminates in widespread global transmission, increased morbidity and mortality, and profound societal, economic, and political consequences. Applying this definition retrospectively, we identify 22 pandemics that occurred between 165 and 2024 AD and were caused by a variety of diseases, including smallpox (Antonine and American), plague (Justinian, Black Death, and Third Plague), cholera (seven pandemics), influenza (two Russian, Spanish, Asian, Hong Kong, and swine), AIDS, and coronaviruses (SARS, MERS, and COVID-19). This work presents a comprehensive analysis of past pandemics caused by both emerging and re-emerging pathogens, along with their epidemiological characteristics, societal impact, and evolution of public health responses. We also highlight the need for proactive measures to reduce the risk of future pandemics. These strategies include prioritizing surveillance of emerging zoonotic pathogens, conserving biodiversity to counter wildlife trafficking, and minimizing the potential for zoonotic spillover events. In addition, interventions such as promoting alternative protein sources, enforcing the closure of live animal markets in biodiversity-rich regions, and fostering global collaboration among diverse stakeholders are critical to preventing future pandemics. Crucially, improving wildlife surveillance systems will require the concerted efforts of local, national and international entities, including laboratories, field researchers, wildlife conservationists, government agencies and other stakeholders. By fostering collaborative networks and establishing robust biorepositories, we can strengthen our collective capacity to detect, monitor, and mitigate the emergence and transmission of zoonotic pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a cholera infection model with a bilinear infection rate is developed by considering the perturbation of the infection rate by the mean-reverting process. First of all, we give the existence of a globally unique positive solution for a stochastic system at an arbitrary initial value. On this basis, the sufficient condition for the model to have an ergodic stationary distribution is given by constructing proper Lyapunov functions and tight sets. This indicates in a biological sense the long-term persistence of cholera infection. Furthermore, after transforming the stochastic model to a relevant linearized system, an accurate expression for the probability density function of the stochastic model around a quasi-endemic equilibrium is derived. Subsequently, the sufficient condition to make the disease extinct is also derived. Eventually, the theoretical findings are shown by numerical simulations. Numerical simulations show the impact of regression speed and fluctuation intensity on stochastic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we develop a comprehensive mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of epidemic cholera, characterized by acute diarrhea due to pathogen overabundance in the human body. The model is first developed from a deterministic point of view, and then it is modified to include the randomness by stochastic differential equations. The study selected Lévy noise above other well-known types of noise, emphasizing its importance in epidemic modeling. Besides presenting a biological justification for the stochastic system, we demonstrate that the equivalent deterministic model exhibits possible equilibria. The introduction is followed by theoretical analysis of the model. Through rigorous analysis, we establish that the stochastic model ensures a unique global solution. Lyapunov function theory is applied to construct necessary conditions, which on average, guarantee the model's stability for R 0 s > 1 . Our findings suggest the likelihood of eradicating the disease when R s is below one, a significant insight supported by graphical simulations of the model. Graphical illustrations were generated from simulating the model in order to increase the analytical results' robustness. This work provides a strong theoretical framework for a thorough comprehension of a range of such diseases. This research not only provides a deeper understanding of cholera dynamics but also offers a robust theoretical framework applicable to a range of similar diseases, alongside a novel approach for constructing Lyapunov functions for nonlinear models with random disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacteria in the genus Vibrio are ubiquitous in estuarine and coastal waters. Some species (including Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio vulnificus) are known human pathogens causing ailments like cholera, diarrhea, or septicemia. Notably, V. vulnificus can also cause a severe systemic infection (known as vibriosis) in eels raised in aquaculture facilities. Water samples were periodically collected from the estuary of the Asahi River, located in the southern part of Okayama City, Japan. These samples were directly plated onto CHROMagar Vibrio plates, and colonies displaying turquoise-blue coloration were selected. Thereafter, polymerase chain reaction was used to identify V. cholerae and V. vulnificus. A total of 30 V. cholerae strains and 194 V. vulnificus strains were isolated during the warm season when the water temperature (WT) was higher than 20 °C. Concurrently, an increase in coliforms was observed during this period. Notably, V. vulnificus has two genotypes, designated as genotype 1 and genotype 2. Genotype 1 is pathogenic to humans, while genotype 2 is pathogenic to both humans and eels. The loop-mediated isothermal amplification method was developed to rapidly determine genotypes at a low cost. Of the 194 strains isolated, 80 (41.2%) were identified as genotype 1 strains. Among the 41 strains isolated when the WTs were higher than 28 °C, 25 strains (61.0%) belonged to genotype 1. In contrast, of the 32 strains isolated when the WTs were lower than 24 °C, 27 strains (84.4%) belonged to genotype 2. These results suggest that the distribution of the two genotypes was influenced by WT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controlled human infection models are important tools for the evaluation of vaccines against diseases where an appropriate correlate of protection has not been identified. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) strain LSN03-016011/A (LSN03) is an LT enterotoxin and CS17-expressing ETEC strain useful for evaluating vaccine candidates targeting LT-expressing strains. We sought to confirm the ability of the LSN03 strain to induce moderate-to-severe diarrhea in a healthy American adult population, as well as the impact of immunization with an investigational cholera/ETEC vaccine (VLA-1701) on disease outcomes. A randomized, double-blinded pilot study was conducted in which participants received two doses of VLA1701 or placebo orally, one week apart; eight days after the second vaccination, 30 participants (15 vaccinees and 15 placebo recipients) were challenged with approximately 5 × 109 colony-forming units of LSN03. The vaccine was well tolerated, with no significant adverse events. The vaccine also induced serum IgA and IgG responses to LT. After challenge, 11 of the placebo recipients (73.3%; 95%CI: 48.0–89.1) and 7 of the VLA1701 recipients (46.7%; 95%CI: 24.8–68.8) had moderate-to-severe diarrhea (p = 0.26), while 14 placebo recipients (93%) and 8 vaccine recipients (53.3%) experienced diarrhea of any severity, resulting in a protective efficacy of 42.9% (p = 0.035). In addition, the vaccine also appeared to provide protection against more severe diarrhea (p = 0.054). Vaccinees also tended to shed lower levels of the LSN03 challenge strain compared to placebo recipients (p = 0.056). In addition, the disease severity score was lower for the vaccinees than for the placebo recipients (p = 0.046). In summary, the LSN03 ETEC challenge strain induced moderate-to-severe diarrhea in 73.3% of placebo recipients. VLA1701 vaccination ameliorated disease severity, as observed by several parameters, including the percentage of participants experiencing diarrhea, as well as stool frequency and ETEC severity scores. These data highlight the potential value of LSN03 as a suitable ETEC challenge strain to evaluate LT-based vaccine targets (NCT03576183). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]