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Floods cause significant damage to human life, infrastructure, agriculture, and the economy. Predicting peak runoffs is crucial for hazard assessment, but it is challenging in remote areas like the Andes due to limited hydrometeorological data. We utilized a 300 km2 catchment over the period 2015–2021 to develop runoff forecasting models exploiting precipitation information retrieved from an X-band weather radar. For the modeling task, we employed the Random Forest (RF) algorithm in combination with a Feature Engineering (FE) strategy applied to the radar data. The FE strategy is based on an object-based approach, which derives precipitation characteristics from radar data. These characteristics served as inputs for the models, distinguishing them as "enhanced models" compared to "referential models" that incorporate precipitation estimates from all available pixels (1210) for each hour. From 29 identified events, enhanced models achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values ranging from 0.94 to 0.50 for lead times between 1 and 6 h. A comparative analysis between the enhanced and referential models revealed a remarkable 23% increase in NSE-values at the 3 h lead time, which marks the peak improvement. The enhanced models integrated new data into the RF models, resulting in a more accurate representation of precipitation and its temporal transformation into runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical forests in the Amazon store large amounts of carbon and are still considered a carbon sink. There is evidence that deforestation can turn a forest landscape into a carbon source due to land use and forest degradation. Deforestation causes fragmented forest landscapes. It is known from field experiments that forest dynamics at the edge of forest fragments are altered by changes in the microclimate and increased tree mortality ("edge effects"). However, it is unclear how this will affect large fragmented forest landscapes, and thus the entire Amazon region. The aim of this study is to investigate different forest attributes in edge and core forest areas at high resolution, and thus to identify the large-scale impacts of small-scale edge effects. Therefore, a well-established framework combining forest modelling and lidar-generated forest structure information was combined with radar-based forest cover data. Furthermore, forests were also analyzed at the landscape level to investigate changes between highly fragmented and less-fragmented landscapes. This study found that the aboveground biomass in forest edge areas is 27% lower than in forest core areas. In contrast, the net primary productivity is 13% higher in forest edge areas than in forest core areas. In the second step, whole fragmented landscapes were analyzed. Nearly 30% of all forest landscapes are highly fragmented, particularly in the regions of the Arc of Deforestation, on the edge of the Andes and on the Amazon river banks. Less-fragmented landscapes are mainly located in the central Amazon rainforest. The aboveground biomass is 28% lower in highly fragmented forest landscapes than in less-fragmented landscapes. The net primary productivity is 13% higher in highly fragmented forest landscapes than in less-fragmented forest landscapes. In summary, fragmentation of the Amazon rainforest has an impact on forest attributes such as biomass and productivity, with mostly negative effects on forest dynamics. If deforestation continues and the proportion of highly fragmented forest landscapes increase, the effect may be even more intense. By combining lidar, radar and forest modelling, this study shows that it is possible to map forest structure, and thus the degree of forest degradation, over a large area and derive more detailed information about the carbon dynamics of the Amazon region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]