1. Intuitive Statistical Inferences about Variances.
- Author
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Beach, Lee Roy and Scopp, Thomas S.
- Subjects
- *
MATHEMATICAL statistics , *VARIANCES , *BAYESIAN field theory , *SAMPLE variance , *STATISTICS , *STATISTICAL physics - Abstract
Subjects saw samples from each of two populations of numbers and made intuitive inferences about which population had the larger variance. Then they either estimated the ratios of the variances or stated their confidence (subjective probability) in their inferences. The ratios were used to infer the subjective magnitudes of the sample variances; they were systematically inaccurate because of a tendency to underweight deviant sample data and because the subjects regard variance among large numbers as less variable than variance among small numbers. Then, confidence in the inferences about the population variances was compared to the probabilities that would have resulted if the ratios of sample variances had actually been the ratios that the subjects reported. Confidence was systematically related to these probabilities but it was always lower. The results are discussed in terms of the conservatism findings reported in other investigations of intuitive statistics. A Bayesian F-test is appended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1968
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