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O NE OF THE MOST APPARENT CONSEQUENCES for representative bodies of urbanization and industrialization has been the increased variety and technical complexity of public issues. These developments place a unique burden on the elected representative. Although he is not intentionally recruited to be expert in any area, he is expected to choose among alternatives in many areas, and he is often given little time to assemble relevant information. His ability to gather and evaluate that information is further limited by his own training and experience, whether or not he is full or part time, the availability of staff and research facilities, and particularly by the limitations on human intellect and energy when faced with the tasks of processing large amounts of information. In part the problem is to avoid inappropriate information while securing the discrete information needed to make rational decisions.'

This paper reviews applied experimental work done through 1973, covering more than 40 studies, with the objective of determining which techniques which offer the greatest prospects of measuring the effects of “driver fatigue” vis a vis level of operator alertness and the performance of safety-critical highway vehicle driving behaviours. Criteria for evaluating applicability of measuring techniques should include their individual validity, reliability, the ease of obtaining measures without interfering with the driver's actual state, and their practicality in terms of personnel, equipment, and space required for each. This review also examines the more important deficiencies of prior methodological approaches. Recommendations are made for a “package” of measuring techniques most appropriate to this problem.

Systems Dynamics models have been used to study various complex socio-technical problems. The author modified a model of a hypothetical firm to analyze the interrelationships among a multitude of factors affecting worker safety and health. These factors interact with each other in various ways via numerous feedback relationships. Modified policies which might be too protracted, risky, or expensive to experiment with in the real system can be readily explored using the model. Two such experiments with the model are presented here. This modeling technique offers an efficient method for management and Government officials to study the socio-economic costs and benefits of potential safety and health standards.

The purpose of this paper is to review some methods and techniques applicable to the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements (EIS's) emphasizing and drawing upon the accumulated experience in the conduct of technology assessment studies.

Mid-century developments in science and technology have given man the ability to destroy insect enemies by powerful chemicals which comprise one aspect of man's new powers to alter the environment rapidly and drastically. The application of these forces without prior and adequate studies of the likely long-term effects on complex systems often leads to unpredicted disruptions. Accordingly, in pest control as in any activity that substantially alters the existing environment, multi-disciplinary studies and model building have become necessary, to enable prediction of the effects of preventing excessive disturbances. Examples are given of the application of integrated control programmes in Australia including projects on red scale of citrus and the pest complex of pome fruits.

This paper discusses the current responsibilities and activities of the Bureau of Radiological Health in carrying out the requirements of the Radiation Control for Health and Safety Act of 1968, especially in relation to industrial uses of microwave power. It assesses the public health significance of industrial versus other types of applications and describes past, current, and anticipated investigations which are believed to be necessary to properly evaluate potential hazards and develop Federal standards. The responsibilities of the manufacturer, user, and regulatory agencies in cooperatively safeguarding the public health and safety are delineated.

Agricultural development is a complex undertaking because of the numerous factors involved, including those of a physical and non-physical nature. Land and water have often been (and are nowadays sometimes still) regarded as a means to grow crops. This approach, based on the utility principle, may lead to dismal failures. Fertile lands were thus turned into a saline wilderness within a relatively short period. In the above approach the management problem, i.e. the problem of cause-and-effect relations has been neglected. More than is the case at present, proper planning must relate the physical, environmental, economical, and social factors involved. But the integration of all these factors encounters some major difficulties of which insufficient data and lack of an exact and comprehensive methodology are the most serious. But planning cannot be postponed indefinitely or until the last information has been obtained. Effective development of agriculture, of which water resources management forms an important part, is undoubtedly one of the greatest needs of to-day's world. The complexity of the problem has outgrown traditional problem-solving methods. The principal aim of this article is to describe in brief some recent developments in water resources management methods and water supply optimization techniques. Two models are discussed: a linear programming model for finding optimum solutions of water supply and a mathematical groundwater basin model, which is capable of simulating various extraction and replenishment flows and predicting the consequences of future engineering works. The unique feature of these two models is that the output of the linear programming model can be used direcly on the groundwater basin model to test the physical validity of the economic solution.

The stochastic supply and demand analysis method suggested in this paper represents an attempt to provide a technique applicable to the analysis of a large number of resources. However, the key point is not the elaboration of this particular method but rather the demonstration of the need and benefit achieved from the comprehensive analysis of environmental resources. Engineering, in general, and those in the transportation field specifically have been criticized severely for what is termed insensitivity to the "harm" caused by their projects. This is not a just indictment. Still, many projects are being blocked or delayed that could well prove highly beneficial. A prime reason for this difficulty is the inability to demonstrate need in the face of environmental damage. It is important to develop the analytical tools to meet the need for total resource evaluation before alternative methods are thrust upon us outside our discipline.

The general subject of this session is the effect of shortages of raw materials on the development of aircraft. It is most important at the outset to distinguish between two related but essentially different situations. (a) A genuine shortage in which the material in question just cannot be obtained in anything approaching adequate quantities. (b) A situation in which, for some reason or other (possibly associated with some moderate limitation in supply), the price of the material increases rapidly. In either case there is a pressure to reduce the amount of the material that is used, but in the first case one must do so almost regardless of cost or operational effects, while in the second case purely economic and competitive considerations apply. This is most clearly illustrated in the case of fuel—I shall show later in this paper that we could hope to achieve very large savings in fuel usage— perhaps as high as 40%—in a new generation of aircraft, but some of this saving can only come at the cost of reduced speed, reduced operational flexibility or increased complexity. The major decision that must be made is how far along this line should we go—nevertheless, if we are to have the freedom to make that decision we must continue to pursue with all energy the R & D necessary to achieve the maximum improvements.

Parasitic disease has both structure and function, and the most complex structures are to be found where parasite (in the broad sense) and host have become mutually adapted to each other, forming an endemic focus wherein the host population carries with it the seeds of its own partial destruction. By now we know enough to assert as sound theory that these endemic diseases function as actual vehicles of natural selection. The incidence of these diseases in natural and man-made populations suggests that each one removes a rather broad spectrum of unadapted phenotypes from the breeding population. Since the functions of each disease are probably quite interchangeable, the elimination of each endemic disease will have only limited influence on mortality statistics. We have to find ways of dealing effectively with these diseases as a class, or as a set, which will require the development ofunusual concepts and techniques. If this proves possible, we should be able to increase the productivity of the ecosystem without damaging it, because it should let us increase livestock production with substantially less waste. Of more importance, however, is the concept that if we can find out how to increase man's options in coping with these diseases as they afflict humans, both in traditional and advanced societies, we shall make a great step forward in reducing much of the misery of the human condition. This paper attempts to design a biological model capable of testing the hypotheses arising from the theory of natural selection by disease, setting such constraints as seem currently useful to optimize the rapidity

Human engineering is generally concerned with the design of human tasks, systems, and environments so that people can work and live safely, comfortably, and effectively. As a product of World War II, human engineering has until recently been primarily concerned with military and aerospace systems. Lately, however, the field has been focussing on broader societal problems. Many human engineering principles can easily be generalized to cover the design of certain features of environments for the aged. However, the most effective use of human engineering in this area will require research to supply better information about the aged, their needs, capacities and limitations

The author argues that the replacement of radiography by ultrasonics does save cost and time with no loss of effectiveness. These savings, however, depend on thorough ndt techniques and proper support by a management conversant with the capabilities of ultrasonics. The author illustrates his argument with radiographic and ultrasonic examinations of a valve casting and concludes that the results have a general validity. From the general argument and this example he derives the conditions under which ultrasonics can safely replace radiography.

SUMMARY The parameters and the measurement procedures described in this paper are seen as being part of the first stage in development of the human environment assessment process. Additional parameters need to be identified, and methods of measuring impacts reflected by the parameters must be developed and refined. Considerations of the human environment and those elements of the natural environment that are of importance to people must be included as an integral part of the environmental impact assessment process. Therefore, there is a need for continuing to identify parameters of the human environment and to develop methods of measuring impacts so that these considerations will become a well-integrated part of the environmental impact assessment process.

Animal-pasture ecosystems can be studied by the use of modelling and simulation. This paper describes one such model to illustrate the advantages and problems of this approach. In the course of our work some important areas which require further data were revealed, and we discuss their effect on the future development of the model. We found the model to be highly sensitive to certain factors and these receive particular attention. The value of simu lation in conventional agriculture research is illustrated by using the model to compare the possible outcomes of sev eral management strategies.

SUMMARY A review of the Pig Health Scheme since its inception in 1968 is given. The concept, operation and problems encountered are discussed in detail and an attempt is made to anticipate possible future developments.

The author takes a structural approach to current trends in the United States. The problems of the USA today are characterized as directly or indirectly the product of technology. Along with great problems, however, technology has provided us with the means of forecasting alternative futures and navigating in the direction of the better choices. The use of computer technology is seen as vastly increasing the ability of planners to make effective decisions.

The controversy in recent years over the extent of the risk to the public from environmental radioactivity attributable to nuclear facilities (in particular nuclear power plants and fuel reprocessing facilities) has resulted in a lowering of previously "acceptable" environmental radiation levels. The proposal by the AEC to limit effluents from light-water-cooled nuclear reactors so that the exposure of any individual in the public would not exceed 5 mR/yr, and the pronouncement by the BEIR Committee that the current environmental radiation protection guides are unnecessarily high, are illustrative. In turn the AEC has issued a Safety Guide calling for considerable refinement in the measuring and reporting of effluents from nuclear power plants, and has only recently issued a counterpart dealing with the measuring and reporting of radioactivity in the environs of nuclear power plants. The EPA has also recently issued a guide for the surveillance of environmental radioactivity. Currently, power reactor operators are being required by the AEC Regulatory Staff to conduct detailed, sensitive environmental surveillance, at levels consistent with the proposed concentration limits of Appendix I. Much of this appears to be based on extremely conservative assumptions throughout, including dose-effect relationships, exposure situations, pathway models, reconcentration factors and intakes, which cannot be substantiated when examined in the light of current experience in the vicinity of existing power reactors. The expenditures occasioned by the required additional in-plant features necessary to meet the currently proposed effluent release criteria appear difficult to justify on a reasonable basis.

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A procedure for analyzing reimbursement mechanisms for natural resource development projects is presented and applied to a case study of a proposed water transfer project in Wyoming. The analytic framework presented consists of an impact matrix and a reimbursement matrix. Efficiency, equity, revenue-raising ability, and administrative feasibility criteria are utilized to assess the reimbursement mechanisms in light of information displayed in the two matrices. Application of the analytic framework to the case study indicates its usefulness to state and regional planners responsible for project financing and reimbursement analyses. By utilizing separate impact and reimbursement matrices the framework described helps to distinguish between impacts of a project on groups within a region and how those groups might share in or be reimbursed for project and related costs. Also in contrast to conventional repayment analyses focusing primarily on user charges the framework permits consideration of a wide range of reimbursement mechanisms.

There are not, and probably never will be, enough resources to satisfy the community's desires for things that improve the quality of life. This poses the necessity for choice, and hence the consideration of priorities. In the medical field two distinct kinds of choice arise: one at the clinical level and the other in the planning process. At the point of contact with a particular patient, a doctor's duty is to do the best he can for that patient within the confines of existing knowledge and facilities. In the planning process, on the other hand, the concern is with large groups of potential patients at some future date, and with decisions that will to some extent determine what the confines of existing knowledge and facilities will be at that date. The planning process is my concern here and, in particular, one important, and increasingly wide-spread, approach to the problems that arise within it, namely, cost-benefit analysis.

A data base system should have built-in capabilities to meet the objectives of data independence, relatability, compatibility, structural adaptability, integrity, recoverability, and security. These requirements are major constraints on data base design and will be discussed in turn. Since data integrity, recoverability, and security are receiving attention elsewhere, e.g. [BR71][D71] [T71], this paper will confine its treatment of those three objectives to an introduction of their major design-related issues.

This paper suggests that, in situations of fiscal crisis, inadequate prior evaluation and time constraints, faculty evaluation cannot merely follow the traditional models of systematic evaluation. An alternate evaluation approach, called here “Aggregate Perception Evaluation Procedure” (APEP), is suggested and its usefulness for limiting the extent and scope of analysis is described.

The two criteria which a pesticide screening programme should satisfy are firstly to select economically active compounds for full scale field trials and secondly to provide guidance for the planning of future chemical synthesis. In order to fulfill the second of these functions it is necessary to analyse in depth the relationships between chemical structure and biological activity. This procedure which may involve the correlation of large volumes of data can be facilitated considerably by the use of computer based techniques which are described and discussed.

The marketing of drug delivery systems possessing an optimal therapeutic utility is the principal concern of the drug industry. It is necessary and useful in systematically pursuing the rational design and development of optimal drug delivery systems, to establish performance criteria upon which to base their evaluation and gauge the success of these efforts at any stage of the development. This first communication discusses the drug bioavailability input-pharmacological response output relationships which provide the means for establishing such guidelines. Part II discusses the application of these relationships and presents a rational, although idealized, approach to the development of drug products designed to elicit optimally sought pharmacological response behavior. The role of a new method of in-vitro drug product testing which is optimally predictive of in-vivo bioavailability, is presented. Examples are drawn from ongoing research in the authors' laboratories. The limitations within which ...

The experience of expatriate selection and assignment has been a mixed success for multinational firms. Several selection strategies have been used, but failure situations in individual assignment cases are known to be in nearly every multinational firm. New research has indicated that the problem of insuring success for an expatriate is quite different from the problem of avoiding failure. A different set of factors is critical to each of these two problems. When this distinction is made, the variables related to the expatriate selection and assignment problem are considerably more ordered and operable.© 1974 JIBS. Journal of International Business Studies (1974) 5, 25–37

Consider the possibilities of a habitable atmosphere in which ignition cannot occur. The author reports on some investigations aimed at this very objective.

Central to the many problems inherent in the design and use of snowmobiles is their rapid increase in popularity as sporting and recreational vehicles during the past decade. The major problems-damage and injury-producing accidents, noise pollution, damage to private property, and detrimental effects on natural ecology—are described and analyzed. Examples are given that typify the current state-of-the-art investigations of the problem areas. It is noted that such studies, both scientific and engineering, have dealt only in piecemeal fashion with some of the most widely acknowledged problems. The paper examines the existing need for a system-oriented program of research designed to provide data for a wide range of system design standards capable of assuring the survival of this form of recreation.

A measure of potential performance for counselors is needed as an adjunct to the information presently employed in selection decisions. One possible method of developing such a potential performanc...

This paper discusses a number of concepts relating to the characteristics of an urban system and how they may be utilised to improve the system design. One concept considers two aspects of urban development, the disturbance caused to natural systems, and the necessary correction of that disturbance. The costs of each are noted to be strongly correlated, leading to the concept that minimal disturbance requires minimal correction and results in minimal overall cost. The use of the natural environment as a control on urban environment is also discussed. The concept that the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts is utilised in grouping of related components to form a larger sub-system, with greater overall ratio of benefits to costs. A water resources system is considered in particular. The larger sub-system may have a hierarchical structure which may also be utilised in planning for its improvement. The road system is considered as an example and potential benefits are discussed. Another characteris...

Noise control and shock and vibration engineering have many fundamentals in common and many analogous practical constraints. Yet, in many respects they tend to be opposite in methodology, philosophy, and past history. The present discussion is an attempt to present the point of view of the practicing engineer, in either field, who has some perspective on the historical origins of his art. It focuses on aspects that epitomize the practical objectives of such engineers plus any administrators, lawyers, etc., who may also be involved in team efforts. For noise control, the aspects chosen are establishment of regulations, monitoring, and design or other actions intended to bring about compliance with regulations. For shock and vibration engineering, they are establishment of environmental specifications to ensure reliability, environmental testing in accordance with these, and design or redesign to bring about compliance with test requirements and also (we hope) to bring about reliability without severe penalties in weight, schedule, or cost. This is not to say that these aspects in their barest sense represent all the technology or methodology that is pertinent, or even that these limited aspects will be treated comprehensively. It is almost self‐evident that the Acoustical Society of America should and does maintain beneficial relationship with medical, psychological, mechanical engineering, and other societies that report their particular developing lore of fundamentals and some practical information from their particular viewpoint. The Acoustical Society is an important part of this spectrum by virtue of its interdisciplinary coverage, extending through materials, dynamics, sound, instrumentation, and electronics to speech and hearing. But it is also worthwhile for the ASA, by whatever means are available, to sample the flavor of various disciplines as unified and value‐weighted in accordance with typical practical objectives. For this reason, the developing beneficial relationships with the Institute of Noise Control (INCE) and the Shock and Vibration Information Center (SVIC) will become increasingly important.

The value of an adaptive environment is determined by the decision rules used to modify it. These rules are central to the effective use of such an environment, as well as forming the basis for its design. In this paper, standard replacement models are extended to provide rules for decision makers in different contexts, and applied to provide insights into the design and use of adaptive environmental systems.

bor-saving technologies can only lead to aggravation of the unemployment situation, already one of the major social and economic problems facing the developing world. Development and introduction of appropriate technologies is of prime concern if the developing countries are ever to share the benefits of improved living standards. The term "appropriate technology" is used to convey the characteristics required of technical innovations in both the industrial

The paper examines some of the difficulties and problems of environmental damage cost analysis. The relevance of damage cost analysis to decision making in the R & D field and the potential use of this type of data are discussed.

The planning of a community's development and opera tions, whether for a small town or an international project, requires the allocation of resources to various areas of endeavor. These resources can best be allocated if a reasonably accurate estimate is made of the needs for corrective action and the effectiveness of it as a function of the type and amount of expenditure. For example, an estimate may be made of the amount of pollution and social conflict which may develop and of the effectiveness of various physical and human countermeasures (sewage disposal facilities, air pollution control, police, hospitals, etc.); on this basis a reasonable allocation may be made. Such a procedure forces one to establish value systems in order to assess social costs on a basis compatible with real costs. This is difficult. Few planners understand the philosophical and long- term implications of their actions. The approach adopted in this paper bears great similarity to optimal process control by computer, but it cannot solve problems unless suitable value systems can be established. Even when values cannot be adequately established, however, this approach to examining community problems allows decision- makers to better understand the implications of their actions. This approach helps educators to better plan programs which differ from the tradi tionally narrow engineering curricula and to intro duce the concept that technical tools and techniques have important applications in politics and philosophy.

Of all the areas under the control of distribution management the structure of the distribution system is arguably the most important. The siting of depots has a major influence on costs and other factors, and a critical look at the depot situations can lead to a re‐appraisal of a network. Scientific methods have their place but management judgment is invaluable in order to produce practical and acceptable solutions. The second part of this feature, which takes the form of a case study, will be published in our next issue.

This paper is a subjective summary of nine conferences on quality and reliability organized by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers during the last decade. Starting from economic factors, optimum design is identified with minimum total life cost, which is, in turn, closely related to reliability. The paper examines reliability theory briefly for its practical implications, e.g. that reliability depends crucially on safety margin and loading roughness. The former is a design feature, but both are operator controlled. The matching of design to the requirements of the user in the intended environment is considered paramount. It is shown that reliability is so dependent on such factors that design for prescribed levels of reliability presents formidable difficulties. The design process is discussed, taking these and maintenance constraints into account. The necessity for proper development is underlined. It is noted how realistic theory supports everyday practical experience. Finally, the function of management is discussed.

The current emphasis on environmental quality, which includes both man-made and natural environments, has had a significant impact on planning, design, and construction of engineering works. Until recent time, however, the major emphasis has been primarily on market or monetary values, even though some recognition was given to intangible values or those difficult to quantify. The incorporation of multidiscipline teams into project planning has helped insure consideration of all factors, as has introduction of new techniques for developing and presenting alternate project plans. The multi-institutional Westwide water resources planning being directed by the Bureau of Reclamation provides a sound guide to be used in weighing various alternatives in decision making. Experiences of Bureau of Reclamation and Corps of Engineers in incorporating the environmental quality objective into design and construction of selected water resource projects are described.

Recent research on the problem of communicating with the patient is reviewed. It is shown that the frequent failures of both informative and persuasive communications are due in part to patients not understanding and to their forgetting what they are told. Factors making for difficulties in communication are outlined, and methods are described for reducing failures of understanding and for increasing memory of what is said. Evidence on the effectiveness of these remedial methods is presented.

Environmental monitoring is a necessity in this Nuclear Age. Monitoring programs, however, must be designed so that needed information is obtained in a cost-effective manner without redundancy among Federal, State, and local agency programs. The approach of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to monitoring is discussed, with emphasis on dose computation utilizing source data, environmental models, and minimal monitoring for validation. The compatible role of State and local agency monitoring programs is also presented.

Subjects performed a 90-min. watchkeeping task requiring the detection of a plus sign which occasionally appeared in a matrix of solid circles. Independent variables were: (1) number of stimulus elements in the display; (2) location of those elements relative to the strong contours produced by the physical boundary of the viewing field; and (3) distance of the observer from the display. Average detection time for successive 100-trial blocks revealed the commonly observed vigilance decrement. Detection times were consistently shorter when a wider expanse of surround separated the stimulus array and the physical boundary of the display. They were not influenced by either stimulus density or viewing distance. Accuracy of response was found to deteriorate with an increase in stimulus density but was unaffected by the proximity of the display contours to the stimulus array or, again, by viewing distance.

It has been the painful experience of most users of automatic hydrometric instruments, that the equiment appears to operate correctly in the laboratory and then fails shortly after installation in the field. This paper describes the environment in which these instruments are expected to perform, and attempts to identify the more common mechanisms of failure. Some practical suggestions are offered, concerning the equipment design, which have proved to be beneficial in reducing the incidence of malfunction. As our demands for water increase, the control and estimation of the resources becomes more critical. To help make better use of the available supplies a large increase in the amount of data from field instruments has been found necessary. Some of the data are required to be telemetered from the field to a control centre, in real time for flood warning or day to day management purposes. Most data are, however, recorded on site for analysis in connection with longer term planning studies.