Search

This article investigates the effect that mergers have upon banking market structures in the United States. The data analyzed for the study was limited to the states of California, New Jersey, and North Carolina because they met certain criteria. The period of 1961 through 1968 was used because it overlaps with bank structure studies done by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. The author uses a Markov transition model with a probability matrix to forecast changes in banking structure brought about by a merger.

A conference paper on the use of time-series analysis for creating accurate financial forecasts for commercial banks in New York City is presented. The first type of time-series analysis discussed here is the kind which dismantles the time series into its parts for close analysis. The alternative approach to this is called spectral analysis or frequency domain. The short run effects of seasonal variations in the economy is considered to be very important.

Does a shopping center hold a uniform appeal for the potential customers that surround it or are various market segments attracted in different degrees? Judging from the models employed to predict retail trading areas, one might assume that most marketers believe the former to be true and that attraction to all shoppers is a function of the centers mass. This article employs statistical techniques to test this homogeneity concept of the appeal of mass for various types of intro-urban retail facilities and suggests some social perspectives as to how consumers evaluate these centers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sociologists have made discoveries which have considerable significance for marketing. The author, a sociologist, tells in this article what some of these discoveries are. Specifically, findings significant for marketing have been produced by sociologists in population, collective behavior, motivation, stratification, methodology, research designs, measurement, prediction, human ecology, and the family. Much of this knowledge, of course, remains a potential rather than a realized source of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here is a look into the future that no marketing man can neglect. The author, one of the foremost population experts of the world, presents the trends in national population ... households ... income ... metropolitan population ... metropolitan structure ... birth rates and death rates ... labor force ... and ethnic composition. The information given is essential in the planning of any major marketing program. And the implications for the businessman are clearly pointed out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information about determining dependable samples for marketing surveys. The author explains the feasibility and desirability of using probability samples and stresses the importance of thoughtful review and consideration of whether a probability sample is the best in a particular circumstance. Details related to the planning and cost of obtaining a probability sample are presented. A discussion is presented about the use of probability samples in prediction and the reliability of prediction based on these samples.

Two hypotheses regarding the sources of success in management consulting are investigated using biographical data in a predictive design. The hypotheses deal with: (1) a total life pattern of successful endeavor, and (2) a maximal prior exposure to top management culture. The data only partially support the hypotheses. Rather, the concept of elite-ness motivation seems most adequate to explain the results obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the possible relationship between Fishbein's theory of attitude and the Bass-Talarzk problem. The Fishbein attitude model is used in an attempt to predict intraindividual brand preference. The Bass-Talarzk problem is concerned with predicting brand preference within individuals through belief measures about brands. Fishbein's theory stresses the importance of distinguishing attitudes to an object from attitudes to an act. Experts contend that using Fishbein's model to predict intraindividual brand preference with Bass-Talarzk's statistical tests is an effective market research tool.

A comparison of cross-sectional methods of analysis of multi-attribute attitude models indicates striking differences in predictive power. Importance weights do not detract from prediction, and correlations of attitude with preference compare favorably with attitude-affect correlations found in social psychology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis is presented showing the association between a summated brand evaluation index and brands purchased over time. The summated index was no more predictive than simpler measures such as "brand last purchased" and a 7- point rating scale, although the summated index may have value as a diagnostic tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A prediction method for two-dimensional forecasts similar to the RAS method developed for the adjustment of input-output coefficients is presented and applied to real data. In addition, a useful decomposition of the prediction error, based on Information theory concepts, is suggested to trace the primary sources of errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A depth of repeat model is presented that can forecast the demand for new consumer products. The relation of the model to other forecasting models is noted. Data analysis, estimation procedures, and the observed accuracy of forecasts are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subjective judgmental forecasts by knowledgeable persons are often used to obtain aggregated forecasts. The total forecast error results from two effects: the error associated with each particular estimate and the covariance between estimates. A behavioral model is presented and then data from two industrial situations and one controlled experiment are analyzed to determine the significance of bath sources of error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of consumer preference and purchasing behavior has been a topic of deep interest to marketing researchers for many years. In these studies, a subject's actual preference ordering for brands is compared with a predicted preference ordering based on his attitudes, where his attitude is considered as some composite of ratings on a number of specified attributes The studies cited all used the Fishbein model [8, 9], in which attitude is composed of two components, beliefs and values, This article compares the predictions from the Fishbein model with those from a simpler model against a criterion of stated preference. Predictions using the model were correlated with statements of preference in an actual product test. The simple beliefs-only model consistently performed better than the Fishbein model using the particular form of parameter estimation employed in this study, namely, determining importance weights or values from a four-point rating scale and beliefs from semantic differential scales. While the semantic differential is well accepted for determining beliefs, more controversy surrounds the way values should be determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A function, ordinarily associated with the diffusion of new consumer products, was used to predict eventual levels of penetration and patronage for a new retail outlet. A comparison of estimates with store performance levels suggests that the approach may have operational value for at least some kinds of retail establishments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Often data for subsequent multivariate statistical analysis violate one or more of the assumptions upon which the technique is based. These violations can result in errors in structural interpretation and prediction. When these assumptions are not met, must one use a more complex statistical technique, or is there a way to get around the problem? Transformations help to expand tie range of problems that a given technique can handle beyond what its assumptions would at first seem to permit. The author illustrates the principal types of transformations applied to model building in marketing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Selecting rating devices or attitude scales is too often a casual or judgment decision. Little objective information is available to aid in the selection process. The author compares and contrasts four commonly used rating devices. The devices are analyzed for predicting consumer behavior and aiding in determining measurements of attitude changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results of two laboratory experiments indicate that the number of choices involved in a purchase decision influences the consumer's decision process. The Taylor experiment suggests that as the number of items involved in the decision increases, the consumer becomes less sensitive to changes in these items. The Anderson experiment suggests that consumers will experience a greater degree of dissonance reduction, the greater the number of items in the decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Specific multivariate statistical techniques, such as factor analysis and discriminatory analysis, are finding increasing application in marketing research investigations. Canonical analysis, a less well-known multivariate technique, is an appropriate procedure to use when sets of criterion and predictor variables are to be correlated. This article describes the objective of canonical analysis, its relationship to other multivariate techniques and the major limitations of the method. The procedure is applied to a problem involving the relationship of certain behavioral measures to personality test scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A widespread hypothesis in advertising is that a "hierarchy of effects" follows upon an individual's perception of an advertising message and before he buys (Attention→Interest→Desire→Action). Published empirical evidence on this is examined first; then two sets of commercial research data are analyzed statistically. The emphasis is on sales as the relevant criterion; little support is found for the hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current media comparisons involve two broad types of criteria: measures of audience characteristics and measures of media impact. The assumptions underlying each criterion are discussed and evaluated. A case is made for two additional criteria for media comparisons: audience persuasibility and amount of competitive advertising. Suggestions for future media comparisons are also given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the author's perspectives on the connection of future prediction with modern science. He points that the status of science can make plausible predictions about the more immediate developments to come in and from it. The dramatic advances in molecular biology have laid bare the essential molecular mechanics of inheritance, and of the processes of cellular function and control. He emphasizes the need to plan for the balance in the world and must ask that the changes introduced to be orderly and with humanity aforethought.

This article discusses models of unionization in Canada and a bargaining model, which indicates how time loss from labor disputes can measure trade union aggressiveness. Union power can be evaluated in terms of union strike and non-strike activity, which are closely related to unions' ability to coerce employers into higher wage settlements. Topics include flaws in the Hines model, bargaining theory, strike decisions, empirical analysis, prediction models, and the limitations of using a time-loss variable for estimating the wage adjustment process.

The article is a reply to James A. Craft who commented on the article "Toward a Public Employment Wage Theory," published in the January 1969 issue of "Industrial and Labor Relations Review." Craft's criticism of the article focuses on the potential impact of union organization on the research results. The author says that the article was not intended to consider every form of institutional arrangement in the model. Its purpose was to suggest a simple theoretical framework for analyzing decisions in the public sector.

This paper proposes a theoretical framework and operational measure of an individual's organization map, that is his perceptual model of the organization. Data were obtained from two departments in an insurance corporation to study the relationship between the organization map and various structural and personality variables. The analysis gave some support to the validity of the organization-map scale. The implications of the concept and measure of the organization map for organization theory and administrative practices are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes how the career movements of managers and professionals within organizations may be described by a Markov chain model. This allows a formal description of the results of current career policies which can be examined for inconsistencies. Further, it allows predictions to be made of the effects of continuing present policies into the future. Thus, it provides a more rational basis for career policies of organizations and also for individual managers planning their own careers. From a sample of career movements of managers and professionals in a large industrial organization, data are presented, a simple model constructed, and inferences made. In addition to the normative uses of such models, it is important to note that they provide a means for examining in a dynamic way some basic behavioral science issues that have heretofore been approached in a static fashion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study, based on 67 personal interviews, attempts to test whether variables cited in the literature actually do influence the span of control of chief executives in marketing. Fifteen hypotheses concerning the influence of independent variables in span of control were tested. In most cases, no statistically significant relationship was found between the independent variable and the span of control. One of the most significant relationships was between span of control and the geographic dispersion of subordinates; however, the relationship was positive, rather than negative as hypothesized in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there is considerable empirical evidence that college-educated people have distinctive values and attitudes, existing research presents both positive and negative evidence that colleges serve as actual agents of moral socialization. To order these findings and generate research hypotheses, a typology of client-serving organizations is developed. This typology differentiates client-serving organizations which do and do not induct their clients into the organization. It further distinguishes among varieties of inducting organizations. By employing the typology it is possible to determine the extent to which these organizations can mobilize mechanisms of moral socialization and confront organizational problems lowering the effectiveness of these mechanisms. From this typological framework, a set of predictions about the differing moral impact of certain kinds of inducting organizations is derived, and their application to the study of colleges is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of work behavior have been primarily processual as opposed to factorial. There has been a great concentration on the one-case study and little systematic attempt to relate behavior to contextual and organizational settings. A survey of the literature on bureaucracy leads to an analysis of organizational structure in terms of a set of variables (specialization, standardization, formalization, centralization, configuration, and flexibility) that are capable of empirical verification. Comparative studies will establish organizational "profiles" along these variables and relate them to contextual variables such as size, ownership and control, charter, and technology. The profiles will also allow comparative studies of individual and group behavior to be undertaken in clear relation to organizational settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a series of small-group communication network studies using the Bavelas-Leavitt procedure the following observations were made: (1) Groups continued to learn over longer periods than previous studies of periods of shorter duration had revealed. (2) Differences in antecedent network experiences led to differences in efficiency, organization, and satisfaction in identical subsequent networks. (3) More efficient problem-solving systems were developed, the more groups tried to understand their network structure, and the more they eliminated redundant organizational planning behavior; changes in satisfactions occurred when changes in positions involved issues of promotion and demotion. (4) The opportunity to have elections led to greater continuity of leadership when networks were changed. (5) A model comprising assertions about human response tendencies and network properties was useful for predicting the effects of changes. (6) A prediction regarding the effects of past experience based on the model was confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article refers to Osborne's random walk model II for creating reasonably efficient portfolios and explains a simplified portfolio balance model for selecting assets in a bear market. Data from a simulated defensive portfolio on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, financial performance from the simplified balance model, and Osborne's model predictions are compared. The Sharpe-Markowitz security selection model, the measure of a security's defensiveness using constant terms or market intercept criterion to predict price behavior in bear markets, interest rate risk in borrowing or lending, and parameter stability are mentioned.

The article explains the application of a marketing model that predicts unit sales of specific items in a product line. The mathematical model is based on knowledge of the market, production processes, and characteristics of alternative products, as well as manufacturing and distribution costs. The analytical model combines the company's profit and cost structure to evaluate the selection of a product line. Four types of costs relating to the addition or discontinuance of products, six assumptions in the model such as the idea that only one item is purchased at a time, four parameters including competitive appeal and customer classes, and two modifications to the model are explained.

The article analyzes pension fund investments and the optimal portfolio mix of stocks and bonds. Risks in the investment process include business, market, interest rate, purchasing power, and projected long-term yield. Three elements related to expected yields are mentioned, as well as two reasons why a forecasting trend--based on normalized earnings and the effect of inflation--should not be used. The mathematical models for determining normalized earnings with a liquidation period of 15 years and the optimal portfolio mix are explained. Extreme inflation, forced liquidation, relative variance of two probability distributions, statistical reliability, and the methods of dollar-averaging and constant ratio are mentioned.

The article mentions criticism of corporate leadership, social responsibility of business, business as a subsystem in a larger social-system framework, and the complexity of a competitive market system. Market structure analysis is discussed as a tool for evaluating competitive functioning and synergistic effects such as economies of scale. Market structure analysis is also a prediction model and performance measure that provides information for long term planning. Ideas include: managers' potential as philosopher leaders who develop action plans based on corporate goals and social values; social responsibility that is actualized by corporations' efficient and competitive participation in the market system; and avoidance of government intervention.

The article discusses a predictive model of performance that is developed from a general theory of motivation model, which includes ability, partial theories of motivation, and variable determinants of performance and motivation. The three stages in the general theory model are ability and motivational factors in job performance, major variables in motivation such as incentives or needs, and motivational factors within the variables. Factors in the mathematical models include the probability of goal attainment, incentive value of success, and tendency to avoid a goal. Maslow's hierarchy of needs, Parson's general theory of action, Maier's performance model, arguments for and against partial theories, and perceptual theory of motivation are mentioned.

This article provides a demand and supply analysis for doctorates in business administration who intend to become faculty at business schools in 1967. Business schools have traditionally had problems recruiting faculty from their own discipline, generally choosing faculty trained in economics. The author forecasts the needs for further business school faculty based on prior hiring trends and surveys done of career choices of those who received doctorates of business, as well as a 1965 questionnaire which was sent to the deans of all member schools of the American Association of Collegiate Schools of Business.

The article presents ideas from business management theory that can be implemented for long-range planning for small businesses. The author suggests that small business owners need long-range planning to predict and avoid problems such as increased competition and changing business cultures. The formalization of long-range plans creates more prosperous businesses. A flow chart is presented that is adaptable to numerous businesses and includes sections for premises, plans, actions, and review in order to help create a viable business plan.

The article reports on the economic outlook for California, the state's comparative advantage, and its appeal to business and industries. Data shows population growth, per capita and personal income, and employment projections. Suggested policy measures include preparation of socioeconomic information for decision makers, urban planning, and effective leadership in the public and private sectors, as well as agencies such as a State Urban Extension Service, California New Town Corporation, California Plan and Budget Bureau, and Joint Planning Council. Prediction models are based on a continuation of economic policy, a cutback in defense spending, or an assumption of full employment. Production and migration factors are explained in a 3-stage economic growth model.

The article discusses two versions of the coefficient of inequality formula. The formula was designed originally by H. Theil for the purpose of statistical forecasting accuracy. Theil offered two versions of the formula under the same name. Critics say the most often used version of Theil's formula for coefficient of inequality has little value as an index to assess forecast accuracy. They say the less used version of the formula is simpler and gives more meaningful information about the accuracy of forecasting method.