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Health Manpower Legislation and related research aspects are the topics of this report. The program of the Comprehensive Health Manpower Training Act of 1971 played a major role in the medical school enrollment expansion that occurred between 1971 and 1973. Medical school admissions decisions have been responsible to federal policy objectives and broader social concerns regarding equality of access for women and minorities. Primary care physicians need and are choosing speciality training, whether in family medicine or one of the more traditional specialities of internal medicine, pediatrics, or obstetrics-gynecology. Although public schools and private schools have increased real tuition levels during the past decade, the spread between the two has increased. The strong technical interdependencies among patient care, research, and education in academic health centers mean that there are strong interdependencies between federal decisions in the health manpower field and federal decisions in other health care areas. Greater reliance on clinical faculty earnings for institution support will require that clinical care in teaching hospitals be oriented more toward secondary and tertiary than toward primary care. Government proposals for the use of special projects to promote primary care may compensate for the financial problems associated with primary care training as well as for those created by cutbacks in general institutional support. (Author/PG)

Data on the problem of the loss of professional manpower by developing countries to develop countries is reported and analyzed from a survey of over 1,300 foreign students in over 30 U. S. colleges and universities. The ideological and scholarly debate generated by the brain drain and approaches to the study of professional migration are reviewed, and a sociological model of student nonreturn is presented. The sampling and field work procedures for gathering the data utilized for identifying a pattern of student nonreturn in the U. S. are described. Factors considered as operating in responses to student nonreturn include characteristics of the students' countries, opportunities for work and education, social group influences, and motivational states. These factors are seen as operating at two time periods: the period before arrival and the period of study in the U. S. Discussion focuses on social group effects on nonreturn as well as objective opportunities and their perception by students within these two time periods. In the last chapters, multivariate regression models are proposed and analyzed. Finally, some of the policies that have been suggested to deal with the brain drain are discussed and evaluated in the light of the survey findings and analysis. (KSM)

Nearly 4.3 million workers held two jobs or more at the same time in May 1973, representing 5.1 percent of employed persons. After a 1972 decline, 1973 saw an increase of 500,000 more moonlighters. Four-fifths of all moonlighters were men. The difference between the multiple job-holding rates of Negro and of white workers was not statistically significant. Men whose primary jobs were as teachers below the college level or as protective service workers had the highest moonlighting rates. Men who were postal workers on their first jobs also had a high multiple job-holding rate. Most male multiple jobholders held a full-time job while working at a second job, but female moonlighters were about equally divided between those who had two part-time jobs and those who had a full-time and a part-time job. A major part of the document is devoted to supplementary tables. (MW)

"Vocational Education in Texas High Schools: An Ethnic Comparison", was initiated in March 1973 and continued through the summer of 1974 when all project reports were completed; this is a summary and conclusion of the entire study. Among the major goals were to: document and describe the experiences and aspirations of a large sample of black high school youth and assess their attitudes toward school, work, vocational education, and other factors; profile a selected sample of Anglo and Mexican American students in order to compare all three groups in an urban setting; compare vocational education enrollment patterns with manpower needs in State and local areas; and provide State and local educators with project findings through on-site inservice training workshops and other dissemination procedures. The total thrust of the study was to improve occupational training opportunities and career development of all high school students in the State of Texas. One important aspect was to make recommendations to the funding agency and selected school districts concerning program development. Other recommendations, based on the needs expressed by the respondents (mostly low income) to the eight questionnaires and interviews included: better coordination between vocational education programs and labor market demands, improved guidance programs, and utilization and implementation of major recommendations made as a result of these findings. (AH)

Major emphasis has been placed on preparing students for college. Studies indicate that most of the job openings available between now and 1980 will not require a college education; however, a large number of them will require specialized training. Programs need to be initiated or expanded for occupations promising substantial demand and program areas with declining demand and large enrollments need to be curtailed or perhaps eliminated. Since emerging economic trends have their roots in the past, an historical perspective is required to assess the labor force status of the three major ethnic groups in Texas (Mexican Americans, blacks, and Anglos). Each student's aptitudes and interests must also match the training undertaken. This report examines: (1) the occupational education programs available to students in grades 9-12 in 11 Texas public school districts; (2) vocational education enrollment patterns for the State as a whole and for these school districts; (3) vocational enrollment patterns in comparison to the State's manpower requirements; (4) the economy in terms of industry structure and occupational composition; (5) expected changes in the industrial structure and their effect on occupational demand; and (6) implications of the occupational demand trends in terms of current patterns and emerging trends in high school occupational education. The appendixes consist of tabular data by ethnic group for vocational enrollment (State and district) and occupational employment (State and city). (NQ)

While static economic theory predicts that most income transfer programs will lead to reductions in the labor supply of program beneficiaries, the theory has nothing to say about the magnitude of such reductions. In order to predict the magnitude of such reductions, the labor supply schedule of potential beneficiaries must be known. In previous papers we presented estimates of the effects of income and wage rates on the labor supply of prime age males and females. In this paper we present and discuss similar results for men and women aged 20 to 24. Probably the most interesting aspect of the labor supply decision of young people is its interconnection with the decision of how much time to spend in school. The importance of the role of education is reflected here. In the first section of the paper we present our basic models, describe the data that we shall use for testing the models and discuss our a priori expectations with regard to the magnitude of (and biases in) the various elasticity estimates. In the second section we present income elasticity estimates for married men, single men, and single women. Similar estimates for married women are presented in section three, while wage and substitution elasticities are discussed briefly in section four. The final section contains a very brief summary and conclusion. (Author/JM)

The years 1972 and 1974 had the lowest multiple jobholding rates in a decade. About 3.9 million American workers (4.5 percent of all employed persons) held two or more jobs at the same time in May 1974. About 22 percent of all moonlighters had at least one agricultural job. The decrease in moonlighting was primarily due to the sharply lower multiple jobholding rate for men, especially those in prime working ages, and married men. The decline in multiple jobholding among men was widespread by occupation and industry. Men whose primary jobs were as teachers below the college level or as protective service workers had, as usual, the highest moonlighting rates, 17 and 11 percent, respectively. By industry, men whose main jobs were in educational services and in public administration in State and local governments had the highest rates, 12 percent each, reflecting the high rates for teachers and protective service workers, such as police and fireworkers. Four tables support the data analysis. (Author/MW)

The study is described as a carefully controlled field test of the effects on recipient families of eight different negative income tax or benefit formulas. The most striking finding was that observed changes in labor supply in response to the experimental payments were generally quite small. Chapter One, The Experiment: Background and Choices, reviews the policy debate in the mid-1960's, the negative income tax, and describes important considerations in the study. Chapter Two, Labor Supply Response, explains the methodology by which response variables were statistically related to treatment variables and control variables; the labor supply response--mean treatment-control differentials; and labor supply response--results of more complex models. Results are tabulated and summarized. Chapter Three presents qualifications, other findings, and further research suggestions. Data from the sample, weekly earnings, hours worked, employment rates, and percentage changes are presented in 19 tables. A list of technical papers arising from the Graduated Work Incentive Experiment and table of contents for an administrative procedures volume; abstracts of research into behavioral responses to the experiment other than the labor supply response; and an outline of the available data from the graduated work incentive experiment in New Jersey and Pennsylvania are appended. (Author/NH)

There is an obvious need for a valid, realistic model for research on the occupational needs of the community for relevant time periods to provide planners with quantified data on which to base decisions. The purpose of this study is to develop a statewide system to: (1) identify job needs at the local community level, and (2) relate job needs to training programs in the educational system. The assessment of both urban and rural community needs is difficult to derive. This model focuses on the local community, and that community's educational training system, as opposed to many other models which focus on the state or national level. Basic data sources that appear most useful in occupational needs assessments are Florida Department of Commerce quarterly employment reports, Bureau of Labor Statistics labor market trends, local Florida State Employment Service offices Job Bank data, and the U.S. Labor Department Manpower Administration forecasting documentation. This model is of interest not only to educators and manpower specialists, but also to any planner who is concerned either with the supply of trained persons or demand for training services. (Author/AH)

It is the intent of the occupational needs assessment model to provide data on present and future occupational training requirements for local communities, place the job skill needs in a priority ranking, and relate the occupational need data to the labor market and educational curriculum. This paper shows the development of this model, indicating how data sources flow into the model to relate the job market demand to training needs for the community, and specifying the data gathering activities for implementing the model. A comprehensive evaluation program with an accurate needs assessment process behind it can be an effective instrument of change within the college and within the community. (Author/AH)

The study, which analyzes present and projected physician manpower in New York State, finds New York's physician to population ratio to be the highest of all U.S. States (193 per 100,000 population), but total physician supply to be neither sufficiently large nor equitably distributed to meet patient demand. Foreign and U. S. born graduates of foreign medical schools (FMGs) are critically examined, and it is suggested that ways be found to decrease the number of FMGs practicing in the State. The study surveys medical education in the State, reports favorably on the location and distribution of existing schools and their close alliance with teaching hospitals, and suggests expanding both undergraduate and graduate medical education. The supply and demand for physicians in the State through the year 2000 is projected in graphical form with respect to various assumptions and hypothetical growth rates, with the conclusions that the major need is for primary care physicians, that 260 physicians per 100,000 population is achievable by 1990, and that with expanded medical education and with major increments in the number and capability of physician extenders, reliance on FMGs could be reduced substantially without reducing physician services. Three pages of conclusions and 31 recommendations are included. (JR)

While static economic theory predicts that most income transfer programs will lead to reductions in the labor supply of program beneficiaries, the theory has nothing to say about the magnitude of such reductions. In order to predict the magnitude of such reductions the labor supply schedule of potential beneficiaries must be known. In three previous papers, estimates for married and single prime age (25-34) men; prime age married and single women, and female household heads; and younger men and women were presented. In this paper, estimates are presented for several groups of older men and women. In the first section of this paper, data are described upon which the analysis is based. The next sections present and discuss the results for the demographic groups. The final section contains a brief summary and conclusion. It is found that, for the most part, the results are consistent with prior expectations. In general, the income effects are negative and the substitution effects are positive. The elasticities for older men and women are larger than those for prime age married men. While the labor supply elasticities of men below retirement age are smaller than those for women, the labor supply elasticities of men over age 65 are generally just as large as those for women. (Author/JM)

The central issue of this report is the wide range of parameter estimates of labor supply responses produced by previous econometric studies based on cross sectional data. Considerable public and private debate as to how the existing welfare system should be reformed has fostered renewed study of how welfare related government policies affect people's behavior, particularly how different welfare reform proposals would alter the division of time between market work and other activities. The task undertaken here is a sensitivity analysis of the different methods and formulations by which researchers have previously estimated labor supply responses. The approach taken is a step-by-step exploration of alternative labor supply estimating equatios that attempts to identify the independent (marginal) effect of each particular change in the form of these equations. The sensitivity of response parameters to changes in the measure of market labor supply by an individual to changes in the way an individual's wage is measured, to how non-wage related income effects are estimated, and to who is included in the estimating sample is considered. By systematically exploring what difference each of these changes makes to the parameter estimates, it is possible to isolate which factors strongly affect estimated response parameters. (Author/JM)

The standard one-period labor supply model that economists have used is in some ways an inadequate tool to evaluate a Family Assistance Plan (FAP). The principal difficulty is that an FAP will have important interperiod or life cycle effects. The pure life cycle model, an extension of the work of Becker and Ghez, is derived here without reference to its implications for an FAP. The timing of market participation is shown to depend upon the life cycle wage pattern of men and women, the rate of interest and the rate of time preference, and any age-related changes in the productivity of nonmarket uses of time. A comparison of the predictions of the pure life cycle and pure oneperiod models attempts to clarify circumstances under which the life cycle model should be used and those under which the single-period model is appropriate. The theoretical model is then used to predict and analyze the expected labor supply effects of an FAP. Finally, human capital investments are included in the model. The final section contains an empirical simulation of the predicted effects of an FAP on the hours behavior of men and women. These results suggest what the theory itself implied--a much larger effect of an FAP on the work behavior of married women than on the work behavior of male heads of households. (Author/JM)

The National Petroleum Council has projected a 1980 bituminous coal production of 910 million tons. On that basis, the study estimates the manpower which will be required to produce that volume of coal. On the assumption of a productivity increase of two percent per year from 1974 onwards, the 1980 coal output will require a work force of approximately 200,000, or about 45,000 above the 1973 employment figure. Additional workers needed to replace those who die or retire raise new manpower requirements to about 15,000 per year for the remainder of the decade. Because of the increasing mechanization of coal production, the most critical requirement will be for highly skilled workers. There will also be an urgent need for training programs, both in work safety and in mining skills, for young miners. The study supports its conclusions with numerous statistical tables and interpretations of their data. (Author/PR)

The objectives of this study are: (1) to provide information on the current employment and education and training characteristics of computer occupations, (2) to explore the impact of advancing computer technology on computer manpower and education, and (3) to project computer occupational requirements and their implications for training. Findings are based on field visits by Bureau of Labor Statistics staff to major computer manufacturers and firms, study of published reports and trade and technical publications, and interviews with government and industry experts. Some of the major findings of the study are: (1) employment in computer occupations is expected to grow more slowly over the 1970-80 period than during the past decade, and the distribution of workers among computer jobs is expected to change; (2) hardware prices have decreased and are expected to continue to fall over the next decade; and (3) increasing sophistication and complexity of computer personnel functions will require workers with more and better training than in the past. (Author/CP)

The study is concerned with the causes and economic consequences of the employment of foreign manpower in the more industrialized countries of Europe. The focus of the study was an analysis of the relationship between the forms in which the foreign work force is utilized and the functioning of the labor market, and an assessment of certain consequences of the employment of foreign workers on the economic system. Two complementary studies make up the bulk of the document, a general survey by W. R. Bohning (The Economic Effects of the Employment of Foreign Workers: With Special Reference to the Labor Markets of Western Europe's Post Industrial Countries) which takes as its conceptual framework the process of "self-feeding" immigration, and a more specific study by Dennis Maillot (The Economic Effects of the Employment of Foreign Workers: The Case of Switzerland) attempting to integrate immigration into the development of the Swiss labor market and production apparatus. Discussion of the two studies focuses on the relationships between immigration and employment, mobility, inflation, income distribution, and the productive apparatus; and on foreign manpower and mobility mechanisms, the role of the salary range, and demand on social capital. (SA)

A model of occupational choice based on the theory of human capital is developed and estimated by conditional logit analysis. The empirical results estimated the probability of individuals with certain characteristics (such as race, sex, age, and education) entering each of 11 occupational groups. The results indicate that individuals tend to choose those occupations with the highest discounted percent value of potential future earnings, the lowest present value of expected earnings foregone due to unemployment, and the lowest raining cost relative to net worth. The relative weights given to these three variables in choosing occupations varied markedly by race and sex. White males tended to weight expected earnings much more heavily relative to earnings foregone due to unemployment than black males or females of either race. Results were then employed in an analysis of the effects of a national wage subsidy scheme on the selection probabilities for each occupation. The results suggested a higher probability of entering low wage occupations due to the greater relative importance of the subsidy in these occupations. (Author/EA)

The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and secondary workers in eight family types according to the age, sex, and education of the family head; (2) aggregation of primary individuals into reasonably homogeneous wage rate groups not too disparate in size; and (3) development of a dynamic disequilibrium model of the labor market which integrates search-turnover theory with the theory of supply and demand. Three papers deal with the results of simulations of the following programs: (1) the Work Bonus Tax Credit for all families with dependent children; (2) the Jobs and Income (JOIN) Program for low wage individuals; and (3) the Aid to Families with Dependent Children Program. Finally, three papers deal with theoretical analysis: (1) the effects of a progressive income tax on a multi-worker family; (2) the effects of changes in personal income tax parameters on the individual's decision of how to allocate time between labor and leisure; and (3) the effects of increasing payroll taxes on the labor supply. (Author/JR)

An econometric model is formulated that explains income per person in various compartments of the labor market defined by three main levels of education and by education required. The model enables an estimation of the effect of increased access to education on that distribution. The model is based on a production for the economy as a whole; a function from which the contribution to national product by persons in each of the five categories of manpower is considered. This production function constitutes the supply side of jobs. The demand side is derived from utility functions that contain one parameter indicating the quality of the individual, here represented by his level of education. In addition the utility function contains a variable indicating the type of job taken. A distinction is made between primary labor income and secondary income, that is, income after direct taxes. The model is based on a few more assumptions replacing lacking information. The model is tested with the aid of figures collected for the Netherlands around 1960-66. (Author/MLF)

The author's previously developed theory on income distribution, in which two of the explanatory variables are the average level and the distribution of education, is refined and tested on data selected and processed by the author and data from three studies by Americans. The material consists of data on subdivisions of three countries, the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands. The main difference between the author's theory and those of the others is the introduction of demand by the "organizers of production" for skill or qualification alongside with supply. One of the points of focus of this essay consists of attempts to give practical shape to the introduction of variables supposed to represent demand. The theoretical base is advanced in the first section, followed by a discussion of some characteristics of the testing material used. In the remaining sections of the essay some results obtained for the three countries mentioned are shown and compared with results obtained by others. (Author/MLF)