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The article offers a review of the 1972 report by the German Council of Economic Experts. The subject of the report was inflation in regards to finances and economic stabilization. Discussed are the factors associated with Germany's low inflation rate in the 1960s and the rate increase in the 1970s. The report also provides a detailed discussion on the developments of various price indices. It also takes issues with the view that inflation is an unavoidable result of economic growth. The report also warns the government not to accept inflation.

The article examines the impact of interest rate changes on price changes. An econometric analysis is developed and employed in the study, including a basic mark-up pricing model that relates interest rates and financial costs. The ability to pass along the impact of interest rate fluctuations with mark-up pricing is explored using unit cost indices. The results of the research indicate that the impact of changes in interest rates on price changes is minimal and do not support the hypothesis that tight money policies contribute to price increases.

Econometric model building of the type represented in the Duesenberry-Bosworth paper was at best an attempt to see whether systems of, say more than 25 equations, add much to our knowledge of the economy and the response to policy changes. They have not, I believe, at least to this point, and I am not optimistic about a change in the next few years, instead of commenting on the details of the particular models presented at this session, I will explain some of the reasoning that brings me to that conclusion. Before doing so, let me make clear that my comments are not directed at either "theory" or empirical science. There is very little of either in current econometric practice. I view my comments as a criticism of large models, models of twenty-five or more equations, not as a criticism of modelling or testing economic hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the value of science and technology to human welfare. It defines science as knowledge while technology as how we do things. Some of the examples where its importance to the public's welfare are cited includes improvement in public health, protection from natural disasters, and the development of new energy sources. It argues that governments only felt the necessity to consider the impact of science and technology in their national planning in the last quarter century in comparison with military affairs or finance that are usually have been included. The relation and use of science and technology in nations economic development is offered.

Explicit recognition of uncertainty is one feature of much recent work in managerial accounting and, more generally, work in the areas of planning and control. This has led to an increased interest in the use of subjective probability assessments. Often overlooked, however, are the possibilities for subordinates to induce organizational suboptimization via their reported subjective probability assessments. We discussed two specific problems associated with reported subjective probability assessments: (1) dishonest assessments and (2) substantively deficient assessments. Two schemes for alleviating these problems -- the use of scoring rules and Bayesian model comparison procedures -- were then presented and discussed. The limitations and speed-of-effect of each scheme were considered, yielding some nonobvious implications. The organizational framework used throughout this paper incorporated some important features from the theory of teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There were many economic reforms initiated in the Soviet Union in the mid 1960s in an attempt to recentralize the planning system. The reforms initiated in 1965 failed to achieve their purpose, and the latest five-year plan represents a recentralization of planning and a return to several features of the incentive system that had existed prior to 1965. This paper analyzes these recent developments in the incentive system in Soviet industry. One of the important changes initiated in 1965 was an increased emphasis on profit as a source of employee bonuses. It was expected that giving greater scope for managers' initiative and providing more attractive incentives for both managers and workers would stimulate labor productivity. The size of this incentive fund was planned to be a varying percentage of the wage bill in each enterprise, depending on two success indicators that Soviet economists usually termed fundcreating indicators. It is remarked in the article that the significance of these changes, lies in their direction.

There are compelling international as well as domestic forces) at work that will cause increasingly more reliance on competition and market mechanisms in the communist-socialist world. Some communist countries have moved and will move considerably faster than others in the general direction of market socialism; but even the Soviet Union and China will have to proceed substantially in this direction over time, in spite of strong internal pressures to resist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While there is an increasing interest in European transnational consolidations, no one ever ascertained what obstacles corporate strategists actually encounter in developing such consolidations, and what recommendations they might make. Using over 150 interviews with top executives, this study attempts to supply the missing information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In different countries, the scope and content of "competition policy" differ substantially. But there is a common post-World War II supposition: that competition, whether self-operating, preferential, or eclectic, has useful functions and that without government support, competition would diminish severely. The future of national competition and prospects for collaboration among countries in applying policy to international problems are therefore of the utmost policies competition significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By mid-1975 the Canadian Parliament will enact one of the most progressive and far-reaching statutes of its kind: a major revision to the Combines Investigation Act of 1889. In addition, a new Foreign Investment Review Act to prevent foreign competition in Canada, and a Canada Development Corporation to establish domestic monopoly and oligopoly structures in a number of industries, will produce a profound but as yet unpredictable effect on Canada's competitive environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an examination of the success of anti-inflation policies in the United States. The author notes the political climate in which this paper is being published, the fall of 1971, as the U.S., he claims, has just endured a failure in conventional stabilization policy to control inflation, marked by the use of aggregate fiscal and monetary policies in controlling economic demand. The article examines the past fiscal policy, asking which anti-inflationary policies were worth the cost and which were not. The author's conclusions note the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, considers the new incomes policy, and addresses structural changes in the composition of employment.

The article presents case studies of three countries and an examination of fiscal and monetary policies in moderate inflation. The authors look at mild or moderate inflation, seen in developed countries, post World War II. The article concerns itself with monetary and fiscal policy and domestic and international influences on price changes in the United States, Germany, and Italy.

The article presents a discussion on expectations, adjustment, and the dynamic response of income to policy changes. The article discusses how the analysis of time lags has played an important role when examining economic policy. It is explained that the initial literature on time lags in economic policy was concerned with measuring variables as income, employment, and prices, rather than with formal analysis of the reasons for their existence. It is the aim of the article to present a more detailed analysis of time lags in economic policy.

This paper considers two separately conceived models of adaptive forecasting: (1) the Kane expected-change model of interest-rate forecasting and (2) the standard adaptive-expectations model that forecasts interest-rate levels. Kane's [5] econometric estimates show that his structural model performs markedly better on cross-section data than the "expected-level" model. The purpose of this paper is to test the change and level models against the following time- series evidence: (1) Durand's data on corporate bond yields (1900-1954), (2) Kessel's data on U.S. government securities (1954-1962), and (3) Homer's data on U.S. government securities (1950-1970). Within the context of a modified expectations theory, the regression estimates strongly support the expected-change over the expected-level model, as indicated by the extent to which the estimates of the alternative sets of structural parameters conform to prior restrictions imposed by the underlying theories. The plan of this paper is as follows: First, the models of adaptive forecasting to be tested are specified. Second, the highlights of the empirical research are presented and analyzed. And third, the major implications of this research are briefly summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the British banking system. It is explained that the British banking system has been faced with numerous proposals for reform. Some of the economic issues raised with the introduction of a new banking system include the choice of variable the monetary authorities should attempt to control, the techniques they should employ to effect this control, and the changes in the structure of the financial sector which are necessary to create a competitive banking system. The article also examines how the reforms are related to Great Britain's monetary policy.

The article presents academic views on improving the U.S. Federal Reserve discount mechanism. Several principal roles for the discount mechanism were established. Some of these roles included the discount mechanism being a part of the general monetary policy, it being a means to encourage membership in the Federal Reserve System, and it being a a means to affect the allocation of resources. The article analyzes the conflict that occurs when comparing the roles of the discount mechanism with the goals of discount policy.

Obviously the above set of experiments is but a small sample of the many questions which can be asked using the analytic tools at our disposal. We have attempted to provide a selection which accurately reflects sonic of the policy implications of a particular model of the United States economy. It can be argued that such conditional forecasts are intestable hypotheses and therefore of little interest. However, by detailed examination of the implied bebaylor of the economy under alternative specifications of the true state of the world, it hopefully will be possible to isolate and rigorously define the areas in which well. defined hypotheses tests have the highest probability of discriminating among competing theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review of the Commission on Money and Credit is in three sections. The first section describes the background of the commission. The second section discusses the economics of the commission's report. The third section appraises the impact of the commission. The paper is directed to the contributions of monetary commissions to the formation of public policy, and the relationship between the design of the Commission on Money and Credit and its impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article investigates how the effect of changes in money supply affects nominal interest rates through changes in the real rate of interest and through changes in the expected rate of inflation. The article also empirically estimates these effects of money on interest rates. The article discusses the effects of money on short, medium and long-term interest rates and derive the real yield curve. One of the conclusions resulting from the article's study is that unexpected monetary changes have a significant but temporary impact on real interest rates, with the greatest impact occurring on the short-end of the market. Several other conclusions are also presented.

The article comments on the report of the Council of Economic Advisers for the year 1972 in the United States. The author offers criticism towards the council and its findings. The author reports that members of the council did not oppose wage and price controls, yet no member made any proposals. Members of the council claim that controls will and have reduced expectations of inflation. The author disagrees with the council's assertion that inflation is the result of powerful economic groups taking advantage of the market place, and that it is the result of an expansion in the money supply relative to demand.

The author discusses the article "A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Eurodollar Market," by Georg Rich. The author's comments are directed primarily to some issues raised in Rich's theoretical and empirical analysis of the Eurodollar market. The author found that the most interesting portion of Rich's paper are his empirical results. The author asserts that the Rich's data should not have a logical contradiction between approximate interest parity and a relative low elasticity of the covered arbitrage schedule, also known as relatively low capital mobility.

The article examines a model of the Eurodollar market consistent with current practices in Europe. The article demonstrates that the theoretical analysis featured in the article is consistent with the observed variation in the yields on the various classes of assets. It is suggested that the empirical evidence supports the idea that Eurodollar assets are close substitutes for sterling and United States assets. The article's findings also have implications for the theory of short-term capital flows, which postulates a close relationship between international capital flows and international yield differentials.

The author comments on the paper "Living with Inflation" by James Tobin and Leonard Ross, which was published in the May 1961 issue of "The New York Review" periodical. It is explained that the main theme in Tobin's article is that regulators can reduce the harm of inflation by appropriate measures. The article asserts that Tobin is correct, if regulators disregard the additional transactions costs involved in using currency of varying value. In Tobin's article, he states that "anticapted inflation is harmless inflation." The author argues that it is not possible for an individual to anticipate and adjust to inflation and at the same time fail to take it into account.

The article comments on the papers "Selective Credit Controls" by economist Donald Hodgman and "Financial Guidelines and Credit Controls," by economist Thomas Mayer. In both economist's research they present arguments against credit controls. It is explained that the general consensus among most economist is that credit controls contribute little to monetary restraint and are inefficient and undesirable means of influencing the allocation of credit in the economy. Several reasons are given to why credit controls have gained popularity.

The author comments on the paper "The Excess Burden of Monetary Policy," by Donald Hodgman and Thomas Mayer published in the May 1972 issue of the "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking." It is explained that the research conducted by Hodgman and Mayer is concerned with two general questions. The first question is the differential effects of monetary policy on different sectors of the economy. The second question is the use of selective credit controls to implement both general monetary policy to change the allocation of credit. The article offers praise and criticism towards the research.

The article focuses on the effectiveness of the Netherlands monetary policy from 1954 to 1969. The article examines the method of monetary analysis that the Nedarlandsche Banks used, as well as the monetary model which the bank used as a guide. The monetary analysis and the monetary model are adapted to the demands of an open economy with a high level of foreign trade. The article's findings found that the impact of monetary policy on the Netherlands business cycle could not be proven, but it was found that the length and amplitude of the cycle was affected.

The article focuses on the utilization of selective credit controls in managing the United States economy. The article attempts a more qualitative evaluation of selective credit controls by considering the relationship between aims and measures of control, the probable response of lenders and borrowers to these measures, and the implications such responses have for the effectiveness of the control measures in serving the purpose of the authorities. A brief evaluation is also presented of the American experience with selective credit controls.

The article discusses how welfare cost effects the banking structure in Great Britain. It is the aim of the article to demonstrate that Great Britain's banking structure is not socially optimal. The article also attempts to quantify the resulting social loss created by the banking structure. An analysis of the welfare cost is presents, as well as an attempt to measure it. The article cites a 1966 report from Great Britain's Prices and Income Board, which recommended that certain restrictive practices in banking be abolished and a competitive banking system be established.

The author investigates the link between money supply, prices, production, rate of interest, and the rate of forgetfulness. The article attempts to demonstrate that it is possible to derive the new quanity theory of money formulation from simpler and more attractive postulates than those used earlier, following systematic application of the fundamental analogy between interest and forgetfulness and that it results from the confrontation of the new theory, in its new formulation, with data on the rate of interest that the results are what one would expect if, from this new standpoint, the theory provided a correct representation of reality. The article presents information on the relationship between notations and definitions.

The article focuses on the monetary policy techniques in England. It is explained that the Bank of England uses direct administrative intervention into financial markets as its primary technique for monetary control. The Bank of England previously used market-orientated and indirect techniques to implement monetary policy. The article's central thesis is that the need for direct controls used by the Bank of England are the result of a serious misdiagnosis by the British authorities concerning the applicability of the traditional instruments of monetary policy.

The article presents the views of the author on the policymaking experiences of the United States during the political economy period from 1965 to 1971. The author asserts that the period from the start of U.S. President Richard Nixon administration, on January 20, 1969, to the President's adoption of a new economic policy on August 15, 1971, marks a distinct period in macroeconomic policymaking in the United States. In the article the author offers his personal observations about this period rather a definitive history.

The article focuses on the economic aspect of policymaking in the United States. The article's goal is to estimate the cost of resources invested at all levels of government in policymaking. It is suggested that the ambiguous rationality of economic policy emerges from the uncertain political rationality of cognitively rational policymaking procedures. A brief historical overview is presented of monetary policy in the United States. The article also briefly investigates the monetary policies of other countries.

The article focuses on the relative stability of monetary velocity and investment multiplier in Canada. The article cites an article by Professors Friedman and Meiselman, which discussed the issue. The article presents the results of the comparative stability of two alternative models, first, when the correct definition of the Friedman-Meiselman concept of autonomous expenditures is used, and second when a concept of autonomous expenditures is used which the author's consider more appropriate for Canada. The article's findings indicate that the question of income prediction is vital to the test of the comparative performance of the autonomous expenditure hypothesis and the Friedman-Meiselman hypothesis.

The 1971 Economic Report, like its predecessors, reviews the record for last year and why the outcome differs from the forecasts, describes the outlook for the current year and discusses some problems to which the Council has devoted some thought when it has time free to think about some longer-run issues. This Report differs from its predecessors in giving no hints that the operation of the price mechanism would be temporarily suspended and perhaps permanently interfered with in an unprecedented manner in an economy purporting to be free. The 1972 Economic Report should be very interesting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the impact of changes in the stock of money on agricultural income and investment in the United States. It states that the agricultural sector is often believed to undergo different types of business fluctuations and either fails to respond to monetary policy or responds to policy differently than it does to the total economy. It examines the relations between changes in agricultural income and investment and changes in money stock and compares them to the relationship existing between changes in nonagricultural income and investment and changes in the money stock to determine the interrelation between the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy.

The author comments on several articles by economics Gramlich, Sargent, and Wallace concerning the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy. He states that it is necessary to isolate a function to describe the behavior of people responsible for implementing economic policy. He suggests that the introduction of a instrument variable into the utility function is an artificial device and the only thing that makes Gramlich's model at all interesting. He objects to Sargent and Wallace's classification of all market imperfections and uncertainties as transaction costs as it works to obscure some of the economic analysis.

This article focuses on the scope of countercyclical monetary policy. It examines a method to develop expressions that can be utilized in evaluating estimates of policy lags so to help determine under differing circumstances if the estimates imply a magnification or dampening of short-run fluctuations as a result of countercyclical changes in monetary policy. It states that while improvements in forecasting should be sought, if policymakers alter the policy on the basis of forecasts so to compensate for the outside lags of policy, they are thus changing policy direction before the public notices the economy has changed directions, which will result in a strong effect on expectations.

The author focuses on comments by Walter S. Salant about his critique of the article "The United States Balance of Payments in 1968," concerning projections for economic trends in 1968. He states that it was fairly clear that as far as the U.S. balance of payments was concerned, 1968 was not highly unusual and that when comparing the average of the three-year period of 1967-69, there is only minor differences with the 1968 data with the exception of the capital account. He comments on Salant's assertion that his criticism of the assumption regarding long-run behavior of international reserves was unjustified and presents a chart to show that his criticism was in fact valid.

The author focuses on inside money and bank profits. He states that the book "Money, Wealth, and Economic Theory," by Boris Pesek and Thomas Saving, contends that the net wealth of the economy consists of inside money along with outside money. He mentions that Saving stated in his article "Outside Money, Inside Money, and the Real Balance Effect" that bank money, as with other capital goods, can represent net wealth even if its price is equal to production costs, and claims that Saving's analytical framework proves this conclusion is in error. He presents Saving's equations and suggests that Saving overlooked the fact that operating cost constancy implies bank profit constancy at their original competitive level.

The author comments on the papers presented by economists Ronald I. McKinnon and Lawrence B. Krause focusing on the fixed and flexible exchange rates. He states that McKinnon is worried about the dangers of inflation, while Krause has an equal concern between the deflationary bias of fixed exchange rates and increased inflation as a result of flexibility. He mentions that McKinnon wants to retain short-run stability in exchange rates by thwarting economic policy fine-tuning. He disagrees with Krause's belief that capital movements and international trade need to be pushed to the limits of comparative advantage in order to maximize growth.

The article focuses on the role of economists in formulating economic policies. It states that the Council of Economic Advisors in the U.S. was inappropriately designed and should be radically revised to assist the U.S. government in acting in an economically informed way. It mentions that the Council was established by the Employment Act of 1946 to solve the unemployment issue and acts partly to advise the U.S. President on what policies he should adopt as well as engage in public relations activities to support the policies the President does adopt.

The article focuses on open-market operations and exchange mediums. It states that macroeconomic analysis often show that open-market operations involving an increase of money at the expense of government securities will have an expansionary effect on the economy. It examines James Tobin's argument that with a fixed nominal rate of return on securities and a variable nominal rate of return on money, the government would have to purchase money with securities to produce an expansion. It states that Tobin is incorrect when he claims that money's essential characteristic is the fixity of its rate of return.

The article focuses on an economic model of self-generating inflation for countries with institutional structures similar to those in most Latin American nations. It states that some features held in common with most Latin American nations with high inflation are high fiscal government deficits each year, the central bank finances the deficit with a resulting increase in the money supply, and the deficit is partly due to an unwillingness to increase taxes to cover planned expenses, and partly due to the fact the nominal tax value doesn't increase with price levels. It mentions that changes in the institutional structure would render the model invalid. It examines Argentina's economy using the economic model.

The article focuses on the distinctions between endogenous, or passive money, and exogenous (or active) money, and their influences on inflation and economic growth. Modern monetary theory follows the Ricardian and Keynesian models of active money, but the author points out that in actuality, the increase in the money supply often comes about because of the autonomous rise of costs and prices, reflecting the passive money philosophy. The author emphasizes that there is significant difference between using an active-money or a passive-money theory in an economic model.

The article focuses on monetary policy in Canada, in particular the central bank's use of anti-inflationary policies to combat rising unemployment and to float the dollar, as it questions the operations of the Bank of Canada. This article covers the highlights of Bank policy since 1965 and assesses the policies used. This assessment examines Canadian policy both from an independent viewpoint and from the context of an open global economy tied to a set exchange rate. The author comments on some weaknesses of Canadian policy during this period which include the selection of inappropriate economic indicators, and an underappreciation of the fixed rate system.

The article examines the structure and regulation of the financial markets and the ways that government policies instituted by the U.S. Federal Reserve System (Fed) can be inefficient. The effectiveness of policy is measured in terms of money and prices, or money and gross national product (GNP), but also affects the financial structure which relates to costs arising from the inefficiencies of the financial system or from the structural changes that monetary policy brings about. This study examines ways in which government policy can lead to inefficiency, which include limitations to financial markets entry and controls on federal and state prices.

The author focuses on a Council of Economic Advisers report to U.S. President Richard Nixon on balancing acts required to maintain high-level employment in the United States. He states that the Council laid out in a section-by-section breakdown the simple economics of market interference and condemned many federal regulatory practices. He suggests that the initial economic report was not political enough and suggests that the political economy is deficient in the report. He comments about the economic goals of the "silent majority" and suggests that the Nixon administration needs to consider them when crafting its economic goals.

The article focuses on an examination on the effects tight money had on U.S. business investments in 1966. It states that an investigation into the effects on business of monetary restrictions in 1966 reveal small effects from a small tightening of money, and large and rapid effects from large tightenings. It comments on a survey by the U.S. Commerce department on behalf of Wharton School (Commerce-Wharton) concerning the effects of monetary policy on business investments. It states that the Commerce-Wharton evidence suggests that there were short monetary policy lags for a significant part of the total effect on business investments, and mentions that the lag was known to be short for housing.

The article discusses a 1963 report by a task force of the Brookings Institution that predicted by 1968 the U.S. would likely have a sizeable surplus in its balance of payments. In light of a substantial deficit that year, the author identifies and discusses various flaws in the report. He asserts the task force failed to use sophisticated econometric modeling and relied too much on intuition. He faults the report for taking a partial equilibrium approach instead of a general one. In his view the report erroneously assumed that developing countries have little impact on the balance of payments. Several other criticisms follow.

The article presents a model for describing how the balance of payments and stock of reserves are determined. Analysis proceeds within a neo-Keynesian macroeconomic framework that considers three separate instances of a stable exchange-rate, foreign trade sector. Differences among the three include the presence or absence of speculation, and of forward markets.The effectiveness of economic and monetary policy are examined, as is the suitability of forward-market intervention as a stand-in for bank rate policy.